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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=80

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-14
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-14
DOE window 2026-07-08 → 2026-09-08
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月15日 上午7:46 HKT
Rows 41
Excluded uptrends 355

Downside ranking

US.VST · -0.83% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.83%
Top down rate75%
Top P25-1.94%
DOE score2.356

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.83%

P25-1.94% Down75% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score58 DownOpp2.88
View chart 開富途
#2 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.06%

P25-2.33% Down70% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score53.3 DownOpp2.765
View chart 開富途
#3 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.98%

P25-2.04% Down68.8% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score55.2 DownOpp2.58
View chart 開富途
#4 US.CEG Constellation Energy · Utilities

-0.97%

P25-2.51% Down65% Dn/Up513.8% / 3.8% Score63.1 DownOpp2.096
View chart 開富途
#5 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.89%

P25-2.49% Down63.8% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score51.5 DownOpp2.08
View chart 開富途
#6 US.TYL Tyler Technologies · Information Technology

-1.33%

P25-4.25% Down58.8% Dn/Up516.3% / 15% Score45 DownOpp1.859
View chart 開富途
#7 US.FDXF FedEx Freight · Industrials

-0.90%

P25-3.11% Down61.3% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score58.4 DownOpp1.694
View chart 開富途
#8 US.SNPS Synopsys · Information Technology

-1.32%

P25-3.85% Down60% Dn/Up517.5% / 17.5% Score46.8 DownOpp1.682
View chart 開富途
#9 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.63%

P25-1.53% Down61.3% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score52.8 DownOpp1.52
View chart 開富途
#10 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.86%

P25-3.06% Down57.5% Dn/Up511.3% / 2.5% Score88.6 DownOpp1.411
View chart 開富途
#11 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.55%

P25-2.35% Down60% Dn/Up51.3% / 3.8% Score49.2 DownOpp1.341
View chart 開富途
#12 US.NFLX Netflix · Communication Services

-0.95%

P25-2.74% Down60% Dn/Up512.5% / 11.3% Score62.1 DownOpp1.291
View chart 開富途
#13 US.SRE Sempra · Utilities

-0.45%

P25-1.90% Down57.5% Dn/Up51.3% / 0% Score55.1 DownOpp1.112
View chart 開富途
#14 US.TMUS T-Mobile US · Communication Services

-0.48%

P25-2.59% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 6.3% Score58.6 DownOpp1.11
View chart 開富途
#15 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-0.69%

P25-2.09% Down58.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 7.5% Score48.3 DownOpp1.104
View chart 開富途
#16 US.CRWD CrowdStrike · Information Technology

-1.04%

P25-4.33% Down53.8% Dn/Up520% / 10% Score98.1 DownOpp1.091
View chart 開富途
#17 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.30% Down58.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 10% Score54.7 DownOpp1.009
View chart 開富途
#18 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-0.73%

P25-2.75% Down56.3% Dn/Up55% / 10% Score44.2 DownOpp0.99
View chart 開富途
#19 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.20% Down55% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.3% Score50.6 DownOpp0.982
View chart 開富途
#20 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-0.58%

P25-2.09% Down58.8% Dn/Up50% / 8.8% Score45.9 DownOpp0.934
View chart 開富途
#21 US.IBM IBM · Information Technology

-0.46%

P25-3.74% Down58.8% Dn/Up520% / 11.3% Score85 DownOpp0.783
View chart 開富途
#22 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-0.65%

P25-2.52% Down52.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score53.1 DownOpp0.782
View chart 開富途
#23 US.NRG NRG Energy · Utilities

-0.46%

P25-1.68% Down58.8% Dn/Up55% / 8.8% Score48.9 DownOpp0.689
View chart 開富途
#24 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.43%

P25-2.06% Down55% Dn/Up56.3% / 5% Score50.5 DownOpp0.666
View chart 開富途
#25 US.PG Procter & Gamble · Consumer Staples

-0.36%

P25-1.51% Down56.3% Dn/Up55% / 3.8% Score58.1 DownOpp0.578
View chart 開富途
#26 US.CCI Crown Castle · Real Estate

-0.30%

P25-2.38% Down51.3% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score47.2 DownOpp0.567
View chart 開富途
#27 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-0.55%

P25-2.01% Down55% Dn/Up53.8% / 10% Score48.9 DownOpp0.486
View chart 開富途
#28 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-0.19%

P25-2.22% Down55% Dn/Up53.8% / 3.8% Score57.8 DownOpp0.484
View chart 開富途
#29 US.PEG Public Service Enterprise Group · Utilities

-0.36%

P25-1.29% Down52.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score57 DownOpp0.455
View chart 開富途
#30 US.WTW Willis Towers Watson · Financials

-0.13%

P25-1.70% Down55% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score46.6 DownOpp0.455
View chart 開富途
#31 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.39%

P25-2.16% Down55% Dn/Up50% / 8.8% Score51.4 DownOpp0.417
View chart 開富途
#32 US.SO Southern Company · Utilities

-0.16%

P25-1.29% Down53.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score50.6 DownOpp0.407
View chart 開富途
#33 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-0.61%

P25-2.42% Down52.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 10% Score55.3 DownOpp0.4
View chart 開富途
#34 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.42%

P25-2.32% Down53.8% Dn/Up55% / 10% Score49.1 DownOpp0.336
View chart 開富途
#35 US.TDG TransDigm Group · Industrials

-0.39%

P25-1.65% Down55% Dn/Up50% / 8.8% Score52.3 DownOpp0.282
View chart 開富途
#36 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-0.48%

P25-1.95% Down53.8% Dn/Up55% / 10% Score52.8 DownOpp0.275
View chart 開富途
#37 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-0.19%

P25-1.42% Down53.8% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score42.8 DownOpp0.228
View chart 開富途
#38 US.ULTA Ulta Beauty · Consumer Discretionary

-0.35%

P25-2.06% Down53.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 10% Score57 DownOpp0.141
View chart 開富途
#39 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.39%

P25-2.49% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 15% Score55.1 DownOpp0.099
View chart 開富途
#40 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.26%

P25-2.81% Down51.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 10% Score49.7 DownOpp0.094
View chart 開富途
#41 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.31%

P25-1.90% Down52.5% Dn/Up55% / 6.3% Score75.6 DownOpp0.04
View chart 開富途