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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-09-10

Computed at 2026年9月11日 上午7:47 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 18

Coverage 99.8%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-09-10

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-10
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-10
DOE window 2026-07-07 → 2026-09-04
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月11日 上午7:47 HKT
Rows 18
Excluded downtrends 7
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=654 Median 0.1%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.1% OOS median · n=654

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +25.24% ann. net · n=1112

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

3 - 3.5 · +0.3% exp · 71D WF

Opp study rows 26,237 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-10

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 42 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-09-08

8 檔
  1. #1 TRV P75+3.33% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp3.563 開富途
  2. #2 TFC P75+2.91% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 0% Opp3.545 開富途
  3. #3 TECH P75+3.37% 上漲比65% Up/Dn16.3% / 1.3% Opp3.533 開富途
  4. #4 TROW P75+2.82% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.488 開富途
  5. #5 MTB P75+2.86% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp3.46 開富途
  6. #6 EG P75+2.62% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 0% Opp3.293 開富途
  7. #7 LLY P75+3.85% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp3.281 開富途
  8. #8 COO P75+3.63% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn18.8% / 0% Opp3.204 開富途

2026-09-09

15 檔
  1. #1 BEN P75+3.02% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.695 開富途
  2. #2 BIIB P75+4.07% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn20% / 3.8% Opp3.564 開富途
  3. #3 TRGP P75+3.66% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Opp3.558 開富途
  4. #4 MTB P75+3.32% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.492 開富途
  5. #5 BNY P75+2.91% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 0% Opp3.476 開富途
  6. #6 KEY P75+3.15% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.475 開富途
  7. #7 AMP P75+2.70% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.459 開富途
  8. #8 MET P75+2.74% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.448 開富途
  9. #9 RF P75+3.15% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.444 開富途
  10. #10 SLB P75+3.96% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp3.409 開富途
  11. #11 A P75+4.07% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn21.3% / 2.5% Opp3.404 開富途
  12. #12 FITB P75+3.32% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.387 開富途
  13. #13 CF P75+4.67% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Opp3.373 開富途
  14. #14 MS P75+3.28% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp3.261 開富途
  15. #15 ZBRA P75+5.91% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Opp3.255 開富途

2026-09-10

18 檔
  1. #1 FCX P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn21.3% / 5% Opp3.601 開富途
  2. #2 BDX P75+5.01% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Opp3.558 開富途
  3. #3 MTD P75+5.01% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Opp3.512 開富途
  4. #4 FITB P75+2.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.503 開富途
  5. #5 CNC P75+4.90% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Opp3.486 開富途
  6. #6 XOM P75+3.31% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp3.477 開富途
  7. #7 JNJ P75+4.16% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn23.8% / 2.5% Opp3.443 開富途
  8. #8 CF P75+4.98% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.8% Opp3.409 開富途
  9. #9 MRK P75+3.98% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn21.3% / 1.3% Opp3.396 開富途
  10. #10 JBL P75+8.53% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn36.3% / 17.5% Opp3.393 開富途
  11. #11 L P75+3.67% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Opp3.374 開富途
  12. #12 FANG P75+3.43% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Opp3.353 開富途
  13. #13 LITE P75+5.68% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5% / 15% Opp3.264 開富途
  14. #14 DXCM P75+4.22% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 3.8% Opp3.257 開富途
  15. #15 VRSN P75+3.55% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.234 開富途
  16. #16 AMP P75+2.62% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.228 開富途
  17. #17 MTB P75+3.17% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.225 開富途
  18. #18 ALL P75+2.86% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.218 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.FCX P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn21.3% / 5% Opp3.601 開富途
  2. #2 US.BDX P75+5.01% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Opp3.558 開富途
  3. #3 US.MTD P75+5.01% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Opp3.512 開富途
  4. #4 US.FITB 研究門檻符合 P75+2.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.503 開富途
  5. #5 US.CNC P75+4.90% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Opp3.486 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.FCX Freeport-McMoRan · Materials

+1.25%

P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn21.3% / 5% Score53.4 Opp3.601
View chart 開富途
#2 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

+1.22%

P75+5.01% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Score41.8 Opp3.558
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MTD Mettler Toledo · Health Care

+1.17%

P75+5.01% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Score42.4 Opp3.512
View chart 開富途
#4 US.FITB Fifth Third Bancorp · Financials

+1.09%

P75+2.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Score50.4 Opp3.503
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+1.21%

P75+4.90% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Score53.5 Opp3.486
View chart 開富途
#6 US.XOM ExxonMobil · Energy

+1.20%

P75+3.31% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Score63.7 Opp3.477
View chart 開富途
#7 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

+1.17%

P75+4.16% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn23.8% / 2.5% Score51 Opp3.443
View chart 開富途
#8 US.CF CF Industries · Materials

+1.31%

P75+4.98% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.8% Score63.7 Opp3.409
View chart 開富途
#9 US.MRK Merck & Co. · Health Care

+1.15%

P75+3.98% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn21.3% / 1.3% Score43.9 Opp3.396
View chart 開富途
#10 US.JBL Jabil · Information Technology

+1.47%

P75+8.53% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn36.3% / 17.5% Score44.9 Opp3.393
View chart 開富途
#11 US.L Loews Corporation · Financials

+1.07%

P75+3.67% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Score55.3 Opp3.374
View chart 開富途
#12 US.FANG Diamondback Energy · Energy

+1.15%

P75+3.43% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Score62.6 Opp3.353
View chart 開富途
#13 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+1.43%

P75+5.68% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5% / 15% Score68.6 Opp3.264
View chart 開富途
#14 US.DXCM Dexcom · Health Care

+1.09%

P75+4.22% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 3.8% Score45.3 Opp3.257
View chart 開富途
#15 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

+1.14%

P75+3.55% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score50.7 Opp3.234
View chart 開富途
#16 US.AMP Ameriprise Financial · Financials

+0.89%

P75+2.62% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Score60.9 Opp3.228
View chart 開富途
#17 US.MTB M&T Bank · Financials

+0.95%

P75+3.17% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Score60.8 Opp3.225
View chart 開富途
#18 US.ALL Allstate · Financials

+0.95%

P75+2.86% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score57.5 Opp3.218
View chart 開富途