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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-26

Computed at 2026年10月27日 上午7:44 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 27

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-26

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-26
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-26
DOE window 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-20
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月27日 上午7:44 HKT
Rows 27
Excluded downtrends 42
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +5.08% ann. net · n=438

Rolling best TP/SL TP 6% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.25% exp · 75D WF

Opp study rows 21,951 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-26

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +1.9% · 上漲比 67.5% · Up−Dn +15 · 共 89 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-20

8/34
  1. #1 DELL 中位+4.76% P75+11.20% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 3日 中位+2.64% P75+9.15% 上漲比60% Up/Dn42.5%/22.5% 開富途
  3. #3 AMD 2日 中位+2.44% P75+6.29% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  4. #4 MRNA 2日 中位+2.30% P75+4.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MU 2日 中位+1.98% P75+6.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5%/22.5% 開富途
  6. #6 XOM 中位+1.98% P75+3.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 2日 中位+1.97% P75+8.78% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CNC 中位+1.75% P75+2.90% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途

10-21

8/27
  1. #1 LITE 中位+2.34% P75+7.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn37.5%/15% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 3日 中位+2.34% P75+6.81% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 BMY 中位+1.98% P75+3.75% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 TXN 中位+1.73% P75+5.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MRNA 2日 中位+1.56% P75+3.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 NEM 中位+1.50% P75+3.20% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 2日 中位+1.49% P75+8.04% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 BALL 中位+1.37% P75+3.27% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途

10-22

8/22
  1. #1 MRVL 中位+3.84% P75+7.73% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 3日 中位+3.65% P75+6.90% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 MU 2日 中位+3.17% P75+7.12% 上漲比60% Up/Dn37.5%/17.5% 開富途
  4. #4 AMD 2日 中位+3.16% P75+7.49% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 NUE 中位+2.12% P75+4.20% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 PM 中位+2.05% P75+4.30% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 TMO 中位+2.00% P75+4.52% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 STLD 中位+1.91% P75+4.16% 上漲比75% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途

10-23

8/28
  1. #1 VRSN 中位+2.34% P75+4.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  2. #2 REGN 中位+2.26% P75+4.50% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 INCY 中位+1.88% P75+3.69% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 CNP 中位+1.87% P75+4.03% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 NXPI 中位+1.64% P75+5.16% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 DDOG 中位+1.64% P75+5.13% 上漲比55% Up/Dn27.5%/17.5% 開富途
  7. #7 ABBV 2日 中位+1.58% P75+3.11% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 CRL 中位+1.42% P75+3.07% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途

10-26

8/27
  1. #1 SWKS 中位+2.76% P75+5.59% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 ADI 中位+1.88% P75+5.42% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  3. #3 ITW 中位+1.88% P75+3.62% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 SJM 中位+1.84% P75+3.78% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 KVUE 中位+1.82% P75+4.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 ABBV 2日 中位+1.72% P75+3.38% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 AAPL 中位+1.64% P75+4.24% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 DD 中位+1.61% P75+3.57% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.SWKS P75+5.59% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30% / 17.5% Opp4.8 開富途
  2. #2 US.ADI P75+5.42% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 12.5% Opp4.181 開富途
  3. #3 US.ITW 研究門檻符合 P75+3.62% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp4.782 開富途
  4. #4 US.SJM P75+3.78% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp4.402 開富途
  5. #5 US.KVUE P75+4.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Opp5.237 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.SWKS Skyworks Solutions · Information Technology

+2.76%

P75+5.59% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30% / 17.5% Score65.6 Opp4.8
View chart 開富途
#2 US.ADI Analog Devices · Information Technology

+1.88%

P75+5.42% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 12.5% Score66.1 Opp4.181
View chart 開富途
#3 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

+1.88%

P75+3.62% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score66.2 Opp4.782
View chart 開富途
#4 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

+1.84%

P75+3.78% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score68.9 Opp4.402
View chart 開富途
#5 US.KVUE Kenvue · Consumer Staples

+1.82%

P75+4.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score71.9 Opp5.237
View chart 開富途
#6 US.ABBV AbbVie · Health Care

+1.72%

P75+3.38% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score64.5 Opp4.649
View chart 開富途
#7 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

+1.64%

P75+4.24% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score70.1 Opp4.376
View chart 開富途
#8 US.DD DuPont · Materials

+1.61%

P75+3.57% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score71 Opp4.485
View chart 開富途
#9 US.PNW Pinnacle West Capital · Utilities

+1.55%

P75+2.65% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score62.3 Opp3.88
View chart 開富途
#10 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

+1.46%

P75+3.30% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score61.8 Opp4.349
View chart 開富途
#11 US.SLB Schlumberger · Energy

+1.42%

P75+2.94% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score71.5 Opp3.891
View chart 開富途
#12 US.WMT Walmart · Consumer Staples

+1.33%

P75+4.28% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score68 Opp4.31
View chart 開富途
#13 US.KEYS Keysight Technologies · Information Technology

+1.05%

P75+5.23% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Score47.2 Opp3.061
View chart 開富途
#14 US.APD Air Products · Materials

+0.98%

P75+2.13% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score68.6 Opp3.127
View chart 開富途
#15 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

+0.74%

P75+3.91% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score71.2 Opp3.902
View chart 開富途
#16 US.SWK Stanley Black & Decker · Industrials

+0.70%

P75+1.99% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score66.7 Opp2.498
View chart 開富途
#17 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+0.68%

P75+3.22% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score68.3 Opp3.197
View chart 開富途
#18 US.TROW T. Rowe Price · Financials

+0.68%

P75+2.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score68.4 Opp2.861
View chart 開富途
#19 US.CFG Citizens Financial Group · Financials

+0.68%

P75+2.38% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score74.8 Opp2.486
View chart 開富途
#20 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+0.67%

P75+2.84% 上漲比60% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score70.1 Opp2.706
View chart 開富途
#21 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

+0.64%

P75+3.32% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score63.2 Opp2.794
View chart 開富途
#22 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+0.61%

P75+3.73% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Score60.6 Opp2.497
View chart 開富途
#23 US.UPS United Parcel Service · Industrials

+0.51%

P75+2.60% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score65.8 Opp2.254
View chart 開富途
#24 US.EOG EOG Resources · Energy

+0.39%

P75+2.77% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score72.3 Opp2.075
View chart 開富途
#25 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

+0.25%

P75+3.20% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score71.5 Opp1.636
View chart 開富途
#26 US.NTRS Northern Trust · Financials

+0.15%

P75+1.82% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score71.1 Opp1.538
View chart 開富途
#27 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+0.14%

P75+3.03% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score44.7 Opp1.433
View chart 開富途