S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.CMS · -0.91% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.91%

Top down rate73.8%

Top P25-1.98%

DOE score2.226

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.91%

P25-1.98% Down73.8% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score58.5 DownOpp2.87

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#2 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-1.15%

P25-2.62% Down70% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score89.5 DownOpp2.584

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#3 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.88%

P25-3.44% Down68.8% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score67.2 DownOpp2.44

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#4 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-2.41% Down65% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score51.8 DownOpp2.164

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#5 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-2.30% Down63.8% Dn/Up53.8% / 2.5% Score52.8 DownOpp1.883

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#6 US.FICO Fair Isaac · Information Technology

-1.52%

P25-4.75% Down56.3% Dn/Up523.8% / 18.8% Score50.1 DownOpp1.708

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#7 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.53%

P25-1.91% Down62.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score51.6 DownOpp1.543

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#8 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.92%

P25-2.48% Down61.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 7.5% Score60.3 DownOpp1.542

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#9 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.78%

P25-2.30% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 3.8% Score52.4 DownOpp1.534

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#10 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-1.08%

P25-4.32% Down56.3% Dn/Up518.8% / 6.3% Score101.1 DownOpp1.528

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#11 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.19% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 3.8% Score53.7 DownOpp1.497

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#12 US.SO Southern Company · Utilities

-0.67%

P25-1.75% Down60% Dn/Up51.3% / 0% Score56.5 DownOpp1.484

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#13 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.59% Down61.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 5% Score54.6 DownOpp1.442

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#14 US.IT Gartner · Information Technology

-1.11%

P25-5.37% Down56.3% Dn/Up527.5% / 18.8% Score56.4 DownOpp1.406

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#15 US.ADSK Autodesk · Information Technology

-0.90%

P25-4.13% Down57.5% Dn/Up521.3% / 15% Score48.3 DownOpp1.27

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#16 US.TKO TKO Group Holdings · Communication Services

-0.78%

P25-2.72% Down58.8% Dn/Up513.8% / 6.3% Score89.2 DownOpp1.117

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#17 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.94%

P25-2.47% Down58.8% Dn/Up55% / 13.8% Score54.6 DownOpp1.024

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#18 US.PEG Public Service Enterprise Group · Utilities

-0.43%

P25-2.14% Down57.5% Dn/Up51.3% / 1.3% Score68.2 DownOpp0.975

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#19 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.42%

P25-1.94% Down58.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 5% Score53.8 DownOpp0.905

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#20 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-1.82% Down58.8% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score57 DownOpp0.861

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#21 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.38%

P25-1.91% Down58.8% Dn/Up53.8% / 6.3% Score52.6 DownOpp0.789

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#22 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.28%

P25-1.82% Down56.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score53.3 DownOpp0.689

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#23 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-0.54%

P25-2.42% Down53.8% Dn/Up53.8% / 6.3% Score59.2 DownOpp0.627

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#24 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-3.15% Down55% Dn/Up511.3% / 11.3% Score66.6 DownOpp0.59

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#25 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.48% Down56.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 12.5% Score48.5 DownOpp0.57

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#26 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.45%

P25-2.58% Down56.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 10% Score57.2 DownOpp0.57

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#27 US.PG Procter & Gamble · Consumer Staples

-0.49%

P25-1.59% Down55% Dn/Up52.5% / 3.8% Score67.3 DownOpp0.555

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#28 US.NRG NRG Energy · Utilities

-0.43%

P25-1.87% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 3.8% Score73.1 DownOpp0.521

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#29 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.31%

P25-1.34% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 7.5% Score50.1 DownOpp0.419

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#30 US.TDG TransDigm Group · Industrials

-0.42%

P25-2.38% Down51.3% Dn/Up55% / 6.3% Score48.1 DownOpp0.38

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#31 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.31%

P25-2.01% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 5% Score59.5 DownOpp0.37

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#32 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-0.36%

P25-2.35% Down52.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 7.5% Score58.4 DownOpp0.26

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#33 US.CMCSA Comcast · Communication Services

-0.13%

P25-1.88% Down53.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 3.8% Score55.5 DownOpp0.26

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#34 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.23%

P25-1.70% Down52.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.3% Score69.2 DownOpp0.258

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#35 US.WEC WEC Energy Group · Utilities

-0.19%

P25-1.71% Down51.3% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score62.9 DownOpp0.172

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#36 US.SNPS Synopsys · Information Technology

-0.77%

P25-3.71% Down51.3% Dn/Up516.3% / 21.3% Score59.1 DownOpp0.08

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#37 US.FDXF FedEx Freight · Industrials

-0.31%

P25-2.54% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 13.8% Score46.2 DownOpp0.074

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#38 US.TEL TE Connectivity · Information Technology

-0.06%

P25-2.91% Down50% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score60 DownOpp0.038

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#39 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.42%

P25-2.63% Down52.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 15% Score45.7 DownOpp0.035

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#40 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.16%

P25-1.94% Down52.5% Dn/Up58.8% / 6.3% Score58.9 DownOpp0.025

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=80

US.CMS · -0.91% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking