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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-10-05
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-05
Window 2026-07-28 → 2026-09-30
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年10月6日 上午7:47 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=40

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-07-28 → 2026-09-30 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-10-05 · computed at: 2026年10月6日 上午7:47 HKT

Median abs error2.6%
Mean abs error3.77%
Bias0.00%
Inside P25/P7545.8%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.6%
Bias 0.00%
P25/P75 hit 45.8%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.64%
Bias +0.06%
P25/P75 hit 45%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.81%
Bias +0.07%
P25/P75 hit 44.2%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.9%
Bias +0.04%
P25/P75 hit 42.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.94%
Bias -0.01%
P25/P75 hit 40.8%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.93%
Bias -0.04%
P25/P75 hit 39.2%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.95%
Bias 0.00%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 2.77%
Bias -0.19%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 116
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 2.8%
Bias -0.07%
P25/P75 hit 50.9%
n 116
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 2.8%
Bias -0.03%
P25/P75 hit 49.1%
n 116
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 2.7%
Bias +0.03%
P25/P75 hit 46.6%
n 116
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.03%
Bias +0.01%
P25/P75 hit 50.9%
n 116
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=40: median projection vs actual return

-6 -2 2 -22.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.IQV Median projection -0.75, actual return -3.26%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.ITW Median projection -0.81, actual return -2.78%, runup -1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.SHW Median projection -1.06, actual return -3.79%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.UHS Median projection -0.75, actual return +1.34%, runup +2.09%, drawdown -2.09%US.GRMN Median projection -1, actual return +3.37%, runup +4.37%, drawdown -4.37%US.ADP Median projection -1, actual return -1.31%, runup -0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.GEHC Median projection -0.43, actual return -3.02%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.BXP Median projection -0.48, actual return -3.51%, runup -3.03%, drawdown -3.03%US.CMG Median projection -0.94, actual return -12.20%, runup -11.26%, drawdown -11.26%US.MSFT Median projection -4.7, actual return +9.25%, runup +13.95%, drawdown -13.95%US.BAX Median projection -1.18, actual return +5.98%, runup +7.16%, drawdown -7.16%US.WTW Median projection 0.15, actual return +1.07%, runup +0.92%, drawdown -0.92%US.AMZN Median projection -2.22, actual return +0.39%, runup +2.61%, drawdown -2.61%US.CBOE Median projection -1.23, actual return -8.21%, runup -6.98%, drawdown -6.98%US.DXCM Median projection -0.99, actual return -0.95%, runup +0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.REGN Median projection -0.56, actual return +0.78%, runup +1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.ZBRA Median projection -4.44, actual return +2.08%, runup +6.52%, drawdown -6.52%US.RMD Median projection -0.39, actual return -5.02%, runup -4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.FSLR Median projection -4.44, actual return +2.64%, runup +7.08%, drawdown -7.08%US.PLTR Median projection -4.61, actual return +5.75%, runup +10.36%, drawdown -10.36%US.ZBH Median projection -0.97, actual return -0.39%, runup +0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.AIZ Median projection -0.04, actual return -4.76%, runup -4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.EMR Median projection -0.28, actual return -2.31%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.ANET Median projection -1.67, actual return -2.93%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.APA Median projection -1.81, actual return -2.49%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.EXE Median projection -0.65, actual return -2.95%, runup -2.30%, drawdown -2.30%US.VRTX Median projection -0.01, actual return -1.43%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.ABNB Median projection -0.36, actual return +0.23%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.PSX Median projection -0.35, actual return -0.23%, runup +0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.DVN Median projection -1.35, actual return +3.64%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.TER Median projection -1.17, actual return -13.54%, runup -12.37%, drawdown -12.37%US.LITE Median projection -1.17, actual return -9.25%, runup -8.08%, drawdown -8.08%US.TRGP Median projection -0.4, actual return +0.45%, runup +0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.MPC Median projection 0.37, actual return -1.50%, runup -1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.OKE Median projection 0.26, actual return -3.85%, runup -4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.EOG Median projection -0.85, actual return +2.93%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, actual return -1.01%, runup -0.61%, drawdown -0.61%US.MRNA Median projection -0.46, actual return -20.35%, runup -19.89%, drawdown -19.89%US.TGT Median projection -0.41, actual return +6.85%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.CSGP Median projection -0.24, actual return -2.64%, runup -2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.EQR Median projection 1.2, actual return -11.06%, runup -12.26%, drawdown -12.26%US.RVTY Median projection -0.33, actual return +1.28%, runup +1.61%, drawdown -1.61%US.HOOD Median projection -1.65, actual return +0.38%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.FCX Median projection -1.15, actual return +3.05%, runup +4.20%, drawdown -4.20%US.EL Median projection -1.59, actual return +3.06%, runup +4.65%, drawdown -4.65%US.FCX Median projection 0.15, actual return +0.80%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.V Median projection -0.62, actual return -0.72%, runup -0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.TGT Median projection -0.37, actual return -2.33%, runup -1.96%, drawdown -1.96%US.EL Median projection -0.34, actual return +2.00%, runup +2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FCX Median projection -0.17, actual return -4.33%, runup -4.16%, drawdown -4.16%US.RMD Median projection -0.85, actual return +1.58%, runup +2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, actual return -5.18%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.HOOD Median projection -0.75, actual return -6.99%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24%US.GEN Median projection 0.47, actual return +4.59%, runup +4.12%, drawdown -4.12%US.SJM Median projection -0.18, actual return +0.20%, runup +0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.EXPD Median projection -0.04, actual return -0.28%, runup -0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.RVTY Median projection -0.19, actual return +1.84%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.SATS Median projection 0.49, actual return -0.50%, runup -0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.NOW Median projection -1.59, actual return -5.52%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.CRM Median projection 0.16, actual return +0.36%, runup +0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.GEN Median projection -1.14, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.05%, drawdown -0.05%US.SLB Median projection -0.12, actual return +1.40%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.SLB Median projection -2.45, actual return -4.48%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.QCOM Median projection 0.17, actual return -1.12%, runup -1.29%, drawdown -1.29%US.HAL Median projection -0.38, actual return +1.19%, runup +1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.NOW Median projection -1.88, actual return -1.62%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.SATS Median projection 0.89, actual return +7.76%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.DELL Median projection -1.39, actual return +3.65%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.PFG Median projection -1.06, actual return -3.79%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.ELV Median projection -0.41, actual return -4.31%, runup -3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.HOOD Median projection -2.17, actual return -7.57%, runup -5.40%, drawdown -5.40%US.SATS Median projection 1.93, actual return +2.28%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.BG Median projection -0.34, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.SWKS Median projection -1.06, actual return +17.21%, runup +18.27%, drawdown -18.27%US.ORCL Median projection -0.62, actual return -7.53%, runup -6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.VLO Median projection 0.26, actual return +1.98%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.HPQ Median projection -1.35, actual return -7.84%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.SWKS Median projection -1.39, actual return -3.12%, runup -1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.HPE Median projection -0.89, actual return -8.71%, runup -7.82%, drawdown -7.82%US.DELL Median projection -1.25, actual return -0.71%, runup +0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.KR Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.26%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.BBY Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.28%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CHRW Median projection -1.81, actual return -2.22%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.CRWD Median projection 0.17, actual return +4.38%, runup +4.21%, drawdown -4.21%US.VLO Median projection 1.32, actual return -2.48%, runup -3.80%, drawdown -3.80%US.RVTY Median projection -0.93, actual return -1.47%, runup -0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.TMO Median projection -1.2, actual return +1.59%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.UHS Median projection -1.2, actual return -3.57%, runup -2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.CRWD Median projection -1.13, actual return +1.77%, runup +2.90%, drawdown -2.90%US.ARE Median projection -2.08, actual return -4.42%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.TMO Median projection -0.26, actual return +0.03%, runup +0.29%, drawdown -0.29%US.AMD Median projection -0.73, actual return +14.43%, runup +15.16%, drawdown -15.16%US.FTNT Median projection -1.35, actual return +5.24%, runup +6.59%, drawdown -6.59%US.A Median projection 0.83, actual return +5.66%, runup +4.83%, drawdown -4.83%US.AMD Median projection -0.78, actual return +9.79%, runup +10.57%, drawdown -10.57%US.MPC Median projection -0.32, actual return -8.59%, runup -8.27%, drawdown -8.27%US.META Median projection -1.38, actual return +4.90%, runup +6.28%, drawdown -6.28%US.WBD Median projection -1.61, actual return +0.13%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.INTC Median projection -0.32, actual return +4.61%, runup +4.93%, drawdown -4.93%US.AMD Median projection -0.98, actual return +2.23%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.DE Median projection -1.37, actual return -2.80%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.KEYS Median projection -0.35, actual return +1.81%, runup +2.16%, drawdown -2.16%US.WST Median projection -1.31, actual return -0.06%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25%US.PLTR Median projection 0.17, actual return -2.25%, runup -2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.A Median projection -0.98, actual return +1.27%, runup +2.25%, drawdown -2.25%US.META Median projection -1.23, actual return -4.99%, runup -3.76%, drawdown -3.76%US.AMD Median projection -0.86, actual return -3.45%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.GRMN Median projection -0.48, actual return -1.63%, runup -1.15%, drawdown -1.15%US.COST Median projection -0.91, actual return -1.35%, runup -0.44%, drawdown -0.44%US.QCOM Median projection -1.13, actual return -8.88%, runup -7.75%, drawdown -7.75%US.SMCI Median projection 0.38, actual return -5.06%, runup -5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.DDOG Median projection -0.84, actual return +2.13%, runup +2.97%, drawdown -2.97%US.VTRS Median projection -0.88, actual return -4.43%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.WAT Median projection -1.02, actual return -3.93%, runup -2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.A Median projection -0.92, actual return -4.87%, runup -3.95%, drawdown -3.95%US.NTAP Median projection 0.23, actual return +5.21%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, actual return +5.26%, runup +4.09%, drawdown -4.09%US.RCL Median projection -0.96, actual return +3.45%, runup +4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.WBD Median projection -0.34, actual return 0.00%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CCL Median projection -0.47, actual return +4.16%, runup +4.63%, drawdown -4.63% Bucket avg Median projection -4.5, actual return +4.93%, n 4Bucket avg Median projection -2.2, actual return -4.02%, n 4Bucket avg Median projection -0.8, actual return -1.16%, n 91Bucket avg Median projection 0.6, actual return +0.52%, n 21 Corr -0.05 R² 0.2% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: -0.76%

Best setting 3D · n=40: median projection vs forecast error

-6 -2 2 -20.00% 0.00% +20.00% US.IQV Median projection -0.75, forecast error -2.51%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.ITW Median projection -0.81, forecast error -1.97%, runup -1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.SHW Median projection -1.06, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.UHS Median projection -0.75, forecast error +2.09%, runup +2.09%, drawdown -2.09%US.GRMN Median projection -1, forecast error +4.37%, runup +4.37%, drawdown -4.37%US.ADP Median projection -1, forecast error -0.31%, runup -0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.GEHC Median projection -0.43, forecast error -2.59%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.BXP Median projection -0.48, forecast error -3.03%, runup -3.03%, drawdown -3.03%US.CMG Median projection -0.94, forecast error -11.26%, runup -11.26%, drawdown -11.26%US.MSFT Median projection -4.7, forecast error +13.95%, runup +13.95%, drawdown -13.95%US.BAX Median projection -1.18, forecast error +7.16%, runup +7.16%, drawdown -7.16%US.WTW Median projection 0.15, forecast error +0.92%, runup +0.92%, drawdown -0.92%US.AMZN Median projection -2.22, forecast error +2.61%, runup +2.61%, drawdown -2.61%US.CBOE Median projection -1.23, forecast error -6.98%, runup -6.98%, drawdown -6.98%US.DXCM Median projection -0.99, forecast error +0.04%, runup +0.04%, drawdown -0.04%US.REGN Median projection -0.56, forecast error +1.34%, runup +1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.ZBRA Median projection -4.44, forecast error +6.52%, runup +6.52%, drawdown -6.52%US.RMD Median projection -0.39, forecast error -4.63%, runup -4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.FSLR Median projection -4.44, forecast error +7.08%, runup +7.08%, drawdown -7.08%US.PLTR Median projection -4.61, forecast error +10.36%, runup +10.36%, drawdown -10.36%US.ZBH Median projection -0.97, forecast error +0.58%, runup +0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.AIZ Median projection -0.04, forecast error -4.72%, runup -4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.EMR Median projection -0.28, forecast error -2.03%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.ANET Median projection -1.67, forecast error -1.26%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.APA Median projection -1.81, forecast error -0.68%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.EXE Median projection -0.65, forecast error -2.30%, runup -2.30%, drawdown -2.30%US.VRTX Median projection -0.01, forecast error -1.42%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.ABNB Median projection -0.36, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.PSX Median projection -0.35, forecast error +0.12%, runup +0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.DVN Median projection -1.35, forecast error +4.99%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.TER Median projection -1.17, forecast error -12.37%, runup -12.37%, drawdown -12.37%US.LITE Median projection -1.17, forecast error -8.08%, runup -8.08%, drawdown -8.08%US.TRGP Median projection -0.4, forecast error +0.85%, runup +0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.MPC Median projection 0.37, forecast error -1.87%, runup -1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.OKE Median projection 0.26, forecast error -4.11%, runup -4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.EOG Median projection -0.85, forecast error +3.78%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, forecast error -0.61%, runup -0.61%, drawdown -0.61%US.MRNA Median projection -0.46, forecast error -19.89%, runup -19.89%, drawdown -19.89%US.TGT Median projection -0.41, forecast error +7.26%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.CSGP Median projection -0.24, forecast error -2.40%, runup -2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.EQR Median projection 1.2, forecast error -12.26%, runup -12.26%, drawdown -12.26%US.RVTY Median projection -0.33, forecast error +1.61%, runup +1.61%, drawdown -1.61%US.HOOD Median projection -1.65, forecast error +2.03%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.FCX Median projection -1.15, forecast error +4.20%, runup +4.20%, drawdown -4.20%US.EL Median projection -1.59, forecast error +4.65%, runup +4.65%, drawdown -4.65%US.FCX Median projection 0.15, forecast error +0.65%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.V Median projection -0.62, forecast error -0.10%, runup -0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.TGT Median projection -0.37, forecast error -1.96%, runup -1.96%, drawdown -1.96%US.EL Median projection -0.34, forecast error +2.34%, runup +2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.FCX Median projection -0.17, forecast error -4.16%, runup -4.16%, drawdown -4.16%US.RMD Median projection -0.85, forecast error +2.43%, runup +2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.HOOD Median projection -0.75, forecast error -6.24%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24%US.GEN Median projection 0.47, forecast error +4.12%, runup +4.12%, drawdown -4.12%US.SJM Median projection -0.18, forecast error +0.38%, runup +0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.EXPD Median projection -0.04, forecast error -0.24%, runup -0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.RVTY Median projection -0.19, forecast error +2.03%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.SATS Median projection 0.49, forecast error -0.99%, runup -0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.NOW Median projection -1.59, forecast error -3.93%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.CRM Median projection 0.16, forecast error +0.20%, runup +0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.GEN Median projection -1.14, forecast error -0.05%, runup -0.05%, drawdown -0.05%US.SLB Median projection -0.12, forecast error +1.52%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.SLB Median projection -2.45, forecast error -2.03%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.QCOM Median projection 0.17, forecast error -1.29%, runup -1.29%, drawdown -1.29%US.HAL Median projection -0.38, forecast error +1.57%, runup +1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.NOW Median projection -1.88, forecast error +0.26%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.SATS Median projection 0.89, forecast error +6.87%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.DELL Median projection -1.39, forecast error +5.04%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.PFG Median projection -1.06, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.ELV Median projection -0.41, forecast error -3.90%, runup -3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.HOOD Median projection -2.17, forecast error -5.40%, runup -5.40%, drawdown -5.40%US.SATS Median projection 1.93, forecast error +0.35%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.BG Median projection -0.34, forecast error -0.85%, runup -0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.SWKS Median projection -1.06, forecast error +18.27%, runup +18.27%, drawdown -18.27%US.ORCL Median projection -0.62, forecast error -6.91%, runup -6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.VLO Median projection 0.26, forecast error +1.72%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.HPQ Median projection -1.35, forecast error -6.49%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.SWKS Median projection -1.39, forecast error -1.73%, runup -1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.HPE Median projection -0.89, forecast error -7.82%, runup -7.82%, drawdown -7.82%US.DELL Median projection -1.25, forecast error +0.54%, runup +0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.KR Median projection 0.44, forecast error -0.70%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.BBY Median projection 0.62, forecast error -0.90%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CHRW Median projection -1.81, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.CRWD Median projection 0.17, forecast error +4.21%, runup +4.21%, drawdown -4.21%US.VLO Median projection 1.32, forecast error -3.80%, runup -3.80%, drawdown -3.80%US.RVTY Median projection -0.93, forecast error -0.54%, runup -0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.TMO Median projection -1.2, forecast error +2.79%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.UHS Median projection -1.2, forecast error -2.37%, runup -2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.CRWD Median projection -1.13, forecast error +2.90%, runup +2.90%, drawdown -2.90%US.ARE Median projection -2.08, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.TMO Median projection -0.26, forecast error +0.29%, runup +0.29%, drawdown -0.29%US.AMD Median projection -0.73, forecast error +15.16%, runup +15.16%, drawdown -15.16%US.FTNT Median projection -1.35, forecast error +6.59%, runup +6.59%, drawdown -6.59%US.A Median projection 0.83, forecast error +4.83%, runup +4.83%, drawdown -4.83%US.AMD Median projection -0.78, forecast error +10.57%, runup +10.57%, drawdown -10.57%US.MPC Median projection -0.32, forecast error -8.27%, runup -8.27%, drawdown -8.27%US.META Median projection -1.38, forecast error +6.28%, runup +6.28%, drawdown -6.28%US.WBD Median projection -1.61, forecast error +1.74%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.INTC Median projection -0.32, forecast error +4.93%, runup +4.93%, drawdown -4.93%US.AMD Median projection -0.98, forecast error +3.21%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.DE Median projection -1.37, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.KEYS Median projection -0.35, forecast error +2.16%, runup +2.16%, drawdown -2.16%US.WST Median projection -1.31, forecast error +1.25%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25%US.PLTR Median projection 0.17, forecast error -2.42%, runup -2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.A Median projection -0.98, forecast error +2.25%, runup +2.25%, drawdown -2.25%US.META Median projection -1.23, forecast error -3.76%, runup -3.76%, drawdown -3.76%US.AMD Median projection -0.86, forecast error -2.59%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.GRMN Median projection -0.48, forecast error -1.15%, runup -1.15%, drawdown -1.15%US.COST Median projection -0.91, forecast error -0.44%, runup -0.44%, drawdown -0.44%US.QCOM Median projection -1.13, forecast error -7.75%, runup -7.75%, drawdown -7.75%US.SMCI Median projection 0.38, forecast error -5.44%, runup -5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.DDOG Median projection -0.84, forecast error +2.97%, runup +2.97%, drawdown -2.97%US.VTRS Median projection -0.88, forecast error -3.55%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.WAT Median projection -1.02, forecast error -2.91%, runup -2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.A Median projection -0.92, forecast error -3.95%, runup -3.95%, drawdown -3.95%US.NTAP Median projection 0.23, forecast error +4.98%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, forecast error +4.09%, runup +4.09%, drawdown -4.09%US.RCL Median projection -0.96, forecast error +4.41%, runup +4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.WBD Median projection -0.34, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CCL Median projection -0.47, forecast error +4.63%, runup +4.63%, drawdown -4.63% Bucket avg Median projection -4.5, forecast error +9.48%, n 4Bucket avg Median projection -2.2, forecast error -1.79%, n 4Bucket avg Median projection -0.8, forecast error -0.33%, n 91Bucket avg Median projection 0.6, forecast error -0.04%, n 21 Corr -0.24 R² 6.0% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: -0.00%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 40 2.6% 3.77% 0.00% 45.8% 120 2.505
#2 3D 80 2.64% 3.73% +0.06% 45% 120 2.522
#3 3D 120 2.81% 3.74% +0.07% 44.2% 120 2.614
#4 3D 160 2.9% 3.74% +0.04% 42.5% 120 2.659
#5 3D 320 2.94% 3.72% -0.01% 40.8% 120 2.672
#6 3D 500 2.93% 3.71% -0.04% 39.2% 120 2.672
#7 3D 240 2.95% 3.76% 0.00% 41.7% 120 2.687
#8 5D 500 2.77% 4.23% -0.19% 50% 116 2.769
#9 5D 320 2.8% 4.28% -0.07% 50.9% 116 2.781
#10 5D 240 2.8% 4.34% -0.03% 49.1% 116 2.801
#11 5D 40 2.7% 4.6% +0.03% 46.6% 116 2.848
#12 5D 160 3.03% 4.38% +0.01% 50.9% 116 2.922
#13 5D 80 2.98% 4.46% +0.04% 48.3% 116 2.936
#14 5D 120 3.06% 4.39% +0.02% 50% 116 2.944
#15 10D 320 3.75% 5.11% +0.20% 53% 100 3.561
#16 10D 500 3.86% 5.06% +0.05% 54% 100 3.573
#17 10D 240 3.71% 5.16% +0.31% 53% 100 3.575
#18 10D 120 3.96% 5.25% +0.38% 54% 100 3.739
#19 10D 160 3.92% 5.29% +0.36% 50% 100 3.74
#20 10D 80 4.2% 5.34% +0.51% 50% 100 3.92
#21 10D 40 4.17% 5.63% +0.75% 46% 100 4.053
#22 15D 500 5.07% 6.39% -1.29% 48.8% 84 4.843
#23 15D 120 5.2% 6.75% -0.20% 51.2% 84 4.865
#24 15D 320 5.38% 6.43% -0.89% 48.8% 84 4.952
#25 15D 80 5.4% 6.93% -0.08% 52.4% 84 5.006
#26 15D 240 5.5% 6.54% -0.68% 50% 84 5.016
#27 15D 160 5.57% 6.68% -0.35% 47.6% 84 5.057
#28 15D 40 5.58% 7.15% +0.11% 45.2% 84 5.196
#29 20D 160 6.07% 6.99% -0.92% 51.4% 70 5.491
#30 20D 40 6.3% 7.37% +0.08% 47.1% 70 5.624