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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-05

Computed at 2026年10月6日 上午7:47 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 16

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-05

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-05
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-05
DOE window 2026-07-28 → 2026-09-30
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月6日 上午7:47 HKT
Rows 16
Excluded downtrends 17
Review DOE calibration
Buy band (stable Opp plateau) n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 3D

5+ · +6.76% ann. net · n=274

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -4.5%

4 - 4.5 · +0.25% exp · 61D WF

Opp study rows 24,202 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-05

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +1.3% · 上漲比 62.5% · Up−Dn +15 · 共 52 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

09-29

8/23
  1. #1 VLO 中位+2.44% P75+4.71% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 DELL 3日 中位+2.41% P75+8.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 QCOM 3日 中位+2.41% P75+8.09% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 MRVL 中位+2.10% P75+4.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 JCI 中位+2.01% P75+3.92% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 ANET 中位+1.74% P75+5.35% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 CNC 中位+1.45% P75+5.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 TT 中位+1.25% P75+3.22% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

09-30

8/15
  1. #1 FFIV 中位+2.63% P75+4.89% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 3日 中位+2.42% P75+4.89% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn25%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 DELL 3日 中位+2.39% P75+8.40% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  4. #4 GLW 中位+1.56% P75+6.17% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 RVTY 中位+1.41% P75+4.42% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 WDC 3日 中位+1.19% P75+5.34% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 QCOM 3日 中位+1.12% P75+5.99% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 DXCM 中位+0.76% P75+3.17% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

10-01

8/14
  1. #1 QCOM 3日 中位+2.70% P75+5.61% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 3日 中位+2.67% P75+5.22% 上漲比70% Up/Dn30%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 WDC 3日 中位+2.37% P75+4.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 MPWR 中位+1.86% P75+4.46% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 IEX 中位+1.25% P75+2.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 FTNT 中位+1.11% P75+4.16% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 DELL 3日 中位+1.08% P75+9.60% 上漲比50% Up/Dn37.5%/20% 開富途
  8. #8 PANW 2日 中位+0.68% P75+4.67% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/12.5% 開富途

10-02

8/11
  1. #1 SNDK 3日 中位+1.19% P75+5.59% 上漲比55% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DDOG 中位+1.03% P75+4.90% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 CF 2日 中位+0.99% P75+5.00% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 GNRC 中位+0.85% P75+4.48% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CVX 2日 中位+0.83% P75+2.95% 上漲比60% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 MCHP 中位+0.70% P75+4.00% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 ELV 中位+0.55% P75+3.35% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 MAR 中位+0.51% P75+2.03% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

10-05

8/16
  1. #1 WDC 3日 中位+2.33% P75+6.01% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 AMD 中位+1.78% P75+4.54% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 PANW 2日 中位+1.63% P75+5.14% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 TECH 中位+1.32% P75+3.45% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CVX 2日 中位+1.24% P75+3.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 CF 2日 中位+1.23% P75+4.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 VRSN 中位+1.17% P75+5.15% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 MRNA 中位+1.13% P75+4.91% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.WDC P75+6.01% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30% / 10% Opp4.238 開富途
  2. #2 US.AMD P75+4.54% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp4.066 開富途
  3. #3 US.PANW P75+5.14% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 10% Opp4.244 開富途
  4. #4 US.TECH P75+3.45% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.509 開富途
  5. #5 US.CVX P75+3.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp3.067 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.WDC Western Digital · Information Technology

+2.33%

P75+6.01% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30% / 10% Score54 Opp4.238
View chart 開富途
#2 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+1.78%

P75+4.54% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Score73.4 Opp4.066
View chart 開富途
#3 US.PANW Palo Alto Networks · Information Technology

+1.63%

P75+5.14% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 10% Score70.5 Opp4.244
View chart 開富途
#4 US.TECH Bio-Techne · Health Care

+1.32%

P75+3.45% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score63.5 Opp3.509
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CVX Chevron Corporation · Energy

+1.24%

P75+3.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score67.3 Opp3.067
View chart 開富途
#6 US.CF CF Industries · Materials

+1.23%

P75+4.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Score56 Opp3.438
View chart 開富途
#7 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

+1.17%

P75+5.15% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score75.1 Opp3.771
View chart 開富途
#8 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.13%

P75+4.91% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25% / 5% Score73.7 Opp3.21
View chart 開富途
#9 US.AMAT Applied Materials · Information Technology

+0.99%

P75+3.30% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Score75.1 Opp2.728
View chart 開富途
#10 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+0.77%

P75+4.74% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Score74.3 Opp2.912
View chart 開富途
#11 US.GNRC Generac · Industrials

+0.75%

P75+3.62% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score64.3 Opp2.787
View chart 開富途
#12 US.KMI Kinder Morgan · Energy

+0.72%

P75+2.53% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score69.1 Opp2.271
View chart 開富途
#13 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

+0.43%

P75+2.65% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score44.6 Opp1.627
View chart 開富途
#14 US.GLW Corning Inc. · Information Technology

+0.36%

P75+4.28% 上漲比55% Up/Dn20% / 10% Score72.1 Opp1.771
View chart 開富途
#15 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

+0.06%

P75+1.66% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score45.8 Opp1.019
View chart 開富途
#16 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

+0.02%

P75+2.55% 上漲比50% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score72 Opp0.898
View chart 開富途