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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-22

Computed at 2026年10月23日 上午7:44 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 22

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-22

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-22
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-22
DOE window 2026-08-25 → 2026-10-19
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月23日 上午7:44 HKT
Rows 22
Excluded downtrends 23
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 10D

5+ · -14.32% ann. net · n=263

Rolling best TP/SL TP 8.5% / SL -5%

4 - 4.5 · +0.34% exp · 76D WF

Opp study rows 22,690 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-22

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2% · 上漲比 66.3% · Up−Dn +16.3 · 共 67 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-16

8/23
  1. #1 AMD 4日 中位+7.47% P75+11.44% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn62.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 3日 中位+5.38% P75+10.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn52.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 SNDK 5日 中位+5.05% P75+10.80% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 DELL 3日 中位+4.63% P75+10.55% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5%/10% 開富途
  5. #5 INTC 3日 中位+4.15% P75+9.72% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn47.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 HPE 中位+2.40% P75+7.54% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/22.5% 開富途
  7. #7 MRK 中位+1.98% P75+3.50% 上漲比75% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 VLO 中位+1.94% P75+4.11% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途

10-19

8/20
  1. #1 SNDK 5日 中位+4.34% P75+10.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn42.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 中位+3.17% P75+7.47% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  3. #3 KEYS 中位+3.08% P75+7.72% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 AMD 4日 中位+2.38% P75+6.17% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 PANW 中位+2.34% P75+8.28% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  6. #6 DELL 3日 中位+2.09% P75+5.41% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 ZBRA 中位+1.78% P75+4.46% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 DXCM 中位+1.28% P75+2.87% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途

10-20

8/34
  1. #1 DELL 3日 中位+4.76% P75+11.20% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 5日 中位+2.64% P75+9.15% 上漲比60% Up/Dn42.5%/22.5% 開富途
  3. #3 AMD 4日 中位+2.44% P75+6.29% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  4. #4 MRNA 2日 中位+2.30% P75+4.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MU 3日 中位+1.98% P75+6.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5%/22.5% 開富途
  6. #6 XOM 中位+1.98% P75+3.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 3日 中位+1.97% P75+8.78% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CNC 中位+1.75% P75+2.90% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途

10-21

8/27
  1. #1 LITE 中位+2.34% P75+7.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn37.5%/15% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 5日 中位+2.34% P75+6.81% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 BMY 中位+1.98% P75+3.75% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 TXN 中位+1.73% P75+5.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MRNA 2日 中位+1.56% P75+3.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 NEM 中位+1.50% P75+3.20% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 3日 中位+1.49% P75+8.04% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 BALL 中位+1.37% P75+3.27% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途

10-22

8/22
  1. #1 MRVL 中位+3.84% P75+7.73% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 5日 中位+3.65% P75+6.90% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 MU 3日 中位+3.17% P75+7.12% 上漲比60% Up/Dn37.5%/17.5% 開富途
  4. #4 AMD 4日 中位+3.16% P75+7.49% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 NUE 中位+2.12% P75+4.20% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 PM 中位+2.05% P75+4.30% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 TMO 中位+2.00% P75+4.52% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 STLD 中位+1.91% P75+4.16% 上漲比75% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.MRVL 研究門檻符合 P75+7.73% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5% / 17.5% Opp6.655 開富途
  2. #2 US.SNDK 研究門檻符合 P75+6.90% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35% / 10% Opp6.512 開富途
  3. #3 US.MU P75+7.12% 上漲比60% Up/Dn37.5% / 17.5% Opp5.05 開富途
  4. #4 US.AMD 研究門檻符合 P75+7.49% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35% / 15% Opp5.653 開富途
  5. #5 US.NUE 研究門檻符合 P75+4.20% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20% / 0% Opp5.903 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+3.84%

P75+7.73% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5% / 17.5% Score44.3 Opp6.655
View chart 開富途
#2 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+3.65%

P75+6.90% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35% / 10% Score44.9 Opp6.512
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+3.17%

P75+7.12% 上漲比60% Up/Dn37.5% / 17.5% Score46.6 Opp5.05
View chart 開富途
#4 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+3.16%

P75+7.49% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35% / 15% Score42.7 Opp5.653
View chart 開富途
#5 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

+2.12%

P75+4.20% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20% / 0% Score71 Opp5.903
View chart 開富途
#6 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

+2.05%

P75+4.30% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score75.9 Opp4.744
View chart 開富途
#7 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

+2.00%

P75+4.52% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Score78.2 Opp4.167
View chart 開富途
#8 US.STLD Steel Dynamics · Materials

+1.91%

P75+4.16% 上漲比75% Up/Dn20% / 0% Score70.3 Opp5.477
View chart 開富途
#9 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

+1.80%

P75+3.97% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score80.1 Opp5.993
View chart 開富途
#10 US.TXN Texas Instruments · Information Technology

+1.73%

P75+5.45% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Score74.2 Opp4.199
View chart 開富途
#11 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

+1.65%

P75+3.79% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score78.6 Opp4.987
View chart 開富途
#12 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+1.49%

P75+3.55% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score80.2 Opp4.779
View chart 開富途
#13 US.CVS CVS Health · Health Care

+1.43%

P75+3.28% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5% / 0% Score63.1 Opp4.323
View chart 開富途
#14 US.WMT Walmart · Consumer Staples

+1.28%

P75+3.04% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score72.8 Opp3.236
View chart 開富途
#15 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

+0.94%

P75+3.23% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score75.8 Opp3.566
View chart 開富途
#16 US.FANG Diamondback Energy · Energy

+0.82%

P75+2.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score75.3 Opp2.92
View chart 開富途
#17 US.NXPI NXP Semiconductors · Information Technology

+0.80%

P75+4.82% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Score71 Opp2.738
View chart 開富途
#18 US.TDY Teledyne Technologies · Information Technology

+0.63%

P75+2.16% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Score73 Opp1.467
View chart 開富途
#19 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

+0.24%

P75+2.68% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score56.9 Opp1.587
View chart 開富途
#20 US.RTX RTX Corporation · Industrials

+0.21%

P75+2.21% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score73.1 Opp1.561
View chart 開富途
#21 US.FITB Fifth Third Bancorp · Financials

+0.18%

P75+2.21% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score65.1 Opp1.271
View chart 開富途
#22 US.JPM JPMorgan Chase · Financials

+0.17%

P75+2.08% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score63.6 Opp1.217
View chart 開富途