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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.2% · 下跌比 65% · Dn−Up +12.5 · 共 21 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-16

8/9
  1. #1 LII 中位-1.90% P25-3.45% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 VMC 中位-1.87% P25-4.04% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up20%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 EXE 中位-1.33% P25-4.03% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 OTIS 中位-1.13% P25-2.54% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CMS 中位-1.01% P25-3.63% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 AOS 中位-0.93% P25-3.40% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 FOX 中位-0.90% P25-4.11% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 HSY 中位-0.22% P25-2.41% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途

10-22

8/9
  1. #1 META 中位-1.60% P25-4.90% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up25%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 CEG 2日 中位-1.44% P25-3.35% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 NRG 3日 中位-1.37% P25-3.25% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 CVNA 中位-1.33% P25-3.88% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 CMG 2日 中位-1.31% P25-3.57% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 ADBE 2日 中位-0.31% P25-3.92% 下跌比50% Dn/Up17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 LEN 2日 中位-0.18% P25-3.09% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 INTU 中位-0.12% P25-3.64% 下跌比55% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.META P25-4.90% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up25% / 12.5% 中位-1.60% 開富途
  2. #2 US.CEG P25-3.35% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15% / 0% 中位-1.44% 開富途
  3. #3 US.NRG P25-3.25% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15% / 2.5% 中位-1.37% 開富途
  4. #4 US.CVNA P25-3.88% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up17.5% / 0% 中位-1.33% 開富途
  5. #5 US.CMG P25-3.57% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15% / 0% 中位-1.31% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.META Meta Platforms · Communication Services

-1.60%

P25-4.90% Down57.5% Dn/Up525% / 12.5% Score65.9 DownOpp2.181
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CEG Constellation Energy · Utilities

-1.44%

P25-3.35% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score41 DownOpp3.17
View chart 開富途
#3 US.NRG NRG Energy · Utilities

-1.37%

P25-3.25% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score46.1 DownOpp3.087
View chart 開富途
#4 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-1.33%

P25-3.88% Down72.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score44.4 DownOpp3.767
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-1.31%

P25-3.57% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score41.4 DownOpp3.292
View chart 開富途
#6 US.ADBE Adobe Inc. · Information Technology

-0.31%

P25-3.92% Down50% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score100.8 DownOpp0.384
View chart 開富途
#7 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.18%

P25-3.09% Down52.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score86.8 DownOpp0.352
View chart 開富途
#8 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-0.12%

P25-3.64% Down55% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score85.6 DownOpp0.788
View chart 開富途
#9 US.CMCSA Comcast · Communication Services

-0.04%

P25-2.76% Down50% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score87 DownOpp-0.073
View chart 開富途