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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-16

Computed at 2026年10月19日 上午7:51 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 23

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-16

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-16
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-16
DOE window 2026-08-18 → 2026-10-13
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月19日 上午7:51 HKT
Rows 23
Excluded downtrends 34
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 10D

5+ · -7.27% ann. net · n=256

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.66% exp · 75D WF

Opp study rows 22,992 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-16

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2.3% · 上漲比 68.8% · Up−Dn +20 · 共 68 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-12

8/19
  1. #1 INTC 5日 中位+2.65% P75+10.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn37.5%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 2日 中位+2.49% P75+5.17% 上漲比65% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 HPE 2日 中位+2.29% P75+4.32% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 HPQ 中位+1.94% P75+4.83% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 LITE 2日 中位+1.48% P75+5.90% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 EW 中位+1.44% P75+3.94% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 GILD 中位+1.36% P75+2.91% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 AMD 2日 中位+1.09% P75+7.06% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途

10-13

8/30
  1. #1 INTC 5日 中位+3.87% P75+11.32% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 中位+3.42% P75+8.95% 上漲比70% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 MU 4日 中位+3.17% P75+7.79% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 TER 2日 中位+2.58% P75+6.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 3日 中位+2.57% P75+5.74% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 HUM 2日 中位+2.47% P75+5.26% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 AAPL 2日 中位+2.47% P75+3.98% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 STX 2日 中位+2.37% P75+6.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30%/12.5% 開富途

10-14

8/27
  1. #1 INTC 5日 中位+3.55% P75+10.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn37.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 TER 2日 中位+3.31% P75+6.29% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 MU 4日 中位+2.88% P75+8.38% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 LITE 2日 中位+2.40% P75+6.79% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30%/20% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 3日 中位+2.29% P75+8.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 AAPL 2日 中位+2.07% P75+3.68% 上漲比85% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 WAT 中位+1.92% P75+3.50% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 DDOG 中位+1.87% P75+5.03% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途

10-15

8/23
  1. #1 STX 2日 中位+7.49% P75+11.38% 上漲比75% Up/Dn57.5%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 4日 中位+3.44% P75+10.00% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn45%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 INTC 5日 中位+3.15% P75+7.83% 上漲比75% Up/Dn37.5%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 LH 中位+2.47% P75+3.88% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 MRVL 中位+2.20% P75+5.61% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 QCOM 3日 中位+2.18% P75+5.13% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 FTNT 中位+2.13% P75+4.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 HUM 2日 中位+2.03% P75+4.92% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途

10-16

8/23
  1. #1 AMD 2日 中位+7.47% P75+11.44% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn62.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 4日 中位+5.38% P75+10.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn52.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 SNDK 2日 中位+5.05% P75+10.80% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 DELL 中位+4.63% P75+10.55% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5%/10% 開富途
  5. #5 INTC 5日 中位+4.15% P75+9.72% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn47.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 HPE 2日 中位+2.40% P75+7.54% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/22.5% 開富途
  7. #7 MRK 中位+1.98% P75+3.50% 上漲比75% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 VLO 中位+1.94% P75+4.11% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.AMD 研究門檻符合 P75+11.44% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn62.5% / 7.5% Opp12.83 開富途
  2. #2 US.MU 研究門檻符合 P75+10.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn52.5% / 15% Opp9.359 開富途
  3. #3 US.SNDK P75+10.80% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50% / 12.5% Opp9.122 開富途
  4. #4 US.DELL P75+10.55% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5% / 10% Opp9.18 開富途
  5. #5 US.INTC 研究門檻符合 P75+9.72% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn47.5% / 7.5% Opp8.704 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+7.47%

P75+11.44% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn62.5% / 7.5% Score46.7 Opp12.83
View chart 開富途
#2 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+5.38%

P75+10.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn52.5% / 15% Score44.5 Opp9.359
View chart 開富途
#3 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+5.05%

P75+10.80% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50% / 12.5% Score42.9 Opp9.122
View chart 開富途
#4 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+4.63%

P75+10.55% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5% / 10% Score41.7 Opp9.18
View chart 開富途
#5 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+4.15%

P75+9.72% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn47.5% / 7.5% Score49.8 Opp8.704
View chart 開富途
#6 US.HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise · Information Technology

+2.40%

P75+7.54% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35% / 22.5% Score48 Opp4.295
View chart 開富途
#7 US.MRK Merck & Co. · Health Care

+1.98%

P75+3.50% 上漲比75% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score62.1 Opp5.321
View chart 開富途
#8 US.VLO Valero Energy · Energy

+1.94%

P75+4.11% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score64.7 Opp5.403
View chart 開富途
#9 US.DD DuPont · Materials

+1.90%

P75+3.18% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score64.3 Opp4.027
View chart 開富途
#10 US.MSI Motorola Solutions · Information Technology

+1.77%

P75+5.56% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 10% Score75 Opp4.123
View chart 開富途
#11 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+1.56%

P75+9.49% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn35% / 22.5% Score43.9 Opp3.112
View chart 開富途
#12 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+1.55%

P75+5.25% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Score40.1 Opp3.413
View chart 開富途
#13 US.CL Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples

+1.45%

P75+4.31% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score74.8 Opp3.539
View chart 開富途
#14 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+1.32%

P75+3.34% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score61.8 Opp4.219
View chart 開富途
#15 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.23%

P75+2.52% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score65.5 Opp3.201
View chart 開富途
#16 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

+0.99%

P75+3.79% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score72.9 Opp3.684
View chart 開富途
#17 US.DDOG Datadog · Information Technology

+0.84%

P75+4.38% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 10% Score59.5 Opp2.581
View chart 開富途
#18 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

+0.82%

P75+3.47% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score66.9 Opp2.489
View chart 開富途
#19 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

+0.71%

P75+3.46% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score76.8 Opp3.351
View chart 開富途
#20 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

+0.43%

P75+3.10% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score68.8 Opp1.971
View chart 開富途
#21 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

+0.34%

P75+2.37% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score68 Opp1.843
View chart 開富途
#22 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

+0.10%

P75+3.41% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score69.7 Opp1.525
View chart 開富途
#23 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+0.02%

P75+6.16% 上漲比50% Up/Dn30% / 20% Score52.1 Opp0.751
View chart 開富途