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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.1% · 下跌比 63.8% · Dn−Up +12.5 · 共 36 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-12

8/9
  1. #1 ROL 中位-2.66% P25-5.49% 下跌比65% Dn/Up30%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 TAP 中位-1.42% P25-4.14% 下跌比70% Dn/Up15%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 KMB 中位-1.42% P25-3.01% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 WFC 中位-1.29% P25-3.01% 下跌比65% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 VST 2日 中位-0.85% P25-3.93% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 FICO 2日 中位-0.70% P25-6.53% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up30%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 NRG 2日 中位-0.63% P25-5.07% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up27.5%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 CMS 2日 中位-0.52% P25-2.56% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

10-13

8/10
  1. #1 CSGP 2日 中位-1.29% P25-3.48% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 EQT 中位-1.23% P25-3.14% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 BF.B 中位-1.12% P25-3.30% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 EXE 3日 中位-1.10% P25-3.53% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 NRG 2日 中位-0.72% P25-4.75% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up25%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 BR 中位-0.69% P25-1.65% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 PEG 中位-0.68% P25-2.56% 下跌比60% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 ZTS 中位-0.67% P25-2.64% 下跌比55% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

10-15

8/13
  1. #1 AJG 2日 中位-3.26% P25-4.82% 下跌比87.5% Dn/Up25%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 AXON 中位-1.71% P25-5.20% 下跌比65% Dn/Up27.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 FICO 2日 中位-1.64% P25-5.12% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 LDOS 中位-1.42% P25-3.46% 下跌比75% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 CPRT 中位-1.26% P25-3.87% 下跌比75% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 OTIS 2日 中位-1.13% P25-2.94% 下跌比65% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 SBAC 中位-0.98% P25-3.53% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CSGP 2日 中位-0.87% P25-4.40% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up22.5%/10% 開富途

10-16

8/9
  1. #1 LII 中位-1.90% P25-3.45% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 VMC 中位-1.87% P25-4.04% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up20%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 EXE 3日 中位-1.33% P25-4.03% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 OTIS 2日 中位-1.13% P25-2.54% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CMS 2日 中位-1.01% P25-3.63% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 AOS 2日 中位-0.93% P25-3.40% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 FOX 中位-0.90% P25-4.11% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 HSY 中位-0.22% P25-2.41% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.LII P25-3.45% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up17.5% / 7.5% 中位-1.90% 開富途
  2. #2 US.VMC P25-4.04% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up20% / 5% 中位-1.87% 開富途
  3. #3 US.EXE P25-4.03% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5% / 0% 中位-1.33% 開富途
  4. #4 US.OTIS P25-2.54% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5% / 2.5% 中位-1.13% 開富途
  5. #5 US.CMS P25-3.63% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15% / 5% 中位-1.01% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-1.90%

P25-3.45% Down77.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score53.7 DownOpp4.11
View chart 開富途
#2 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-1.87%

P25-4.04% Down72.5% Dn/Up520% / 5% Score86.2 DownOpp3.734
View chart 開富途
#3 US.EXE Expand Energy · Energy

-1.33%

P25-4.03% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score95.7 DownOpp2.82
View chart 開富途
#4 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-1.13%

P25-2.54% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score79 DownOpp2.423
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-1.01%

P25-3.63% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score88.5 DownOpp2.354
View chart 開富途
#6 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.93%

P25-3.40% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score69.6 DownOpp2.008
View chart 開富途
#7 US.FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) · Communication Services

-0.90%

P25-4.11% Down62.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score70.5 DownOpp2.099
View chart 開富途
#8 US.HSY Hershey Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.22%

P25-2.41% Down52.5% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score86.6 DownOpp0.073
View chart 開富途
#9 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-0.21%

P25-2.61% Down55% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score62.6 DownOpp0.643
View chart 開富途