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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-13

Computed at 2026年10月14日 上午7:47 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 30

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-13

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-13
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-13
DOE window 2026-08-05 → 2026-10-08
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月14日 上午7:47 HKT
Rows 30
Excluded downtrends 28
Review DOE calibration
Buy band (stable Opp plateau) n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 10D

5+ · -0.72% ann. net · n=251

Rolling best TP/SL TP 6.5% / SL -3%

3 - 3.5 · +0.4% exp · 78D WF

Opp study rows 23,534 with outcomes

1,506 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-13

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2.1% · 上漲比 65% · Up−Dn +18.1 · 共 60 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-07

8/19
  1. #1 AMD 3日 中位+4.13% P75+6.37% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn40%/0% 開富途
  2. #2 KLAC 2日 中位+2.75% P75+5.59% 上漲比70% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 HPQ 2日 中位+2.71% P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 STX 2日 中位+2.19% P75+6.60% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 2日 中位+2.01% P75+8.36% 上漲比60% Up/Dn35%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 WDC 中位+1.89% P75+6.79% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 DVA 2日 中位+1.69% P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 HUM 2日 中位+1.64% P75+4.49% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途

10-08

8/17
  1. #1 MU 2日 中位+2.71% P75+6.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 3日 中位+2.40% P75+6.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/7.5% 開富途
  3. #3 KLAC 2日 中位+2.10% P75+5.89% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 DVA 2日 中位+1.67% P75+3.47% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 DELL 中位+1.44% P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/17.5% 開富途
  6. #6 NTAP 2日 中位+1.16% P75+5.03% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 GILD 2日 中位+1.15% P75+3.94% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 MRNA 中位+1.07% P75+3.58% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途

10-09

8/21
  1. #1 INTC 3日 中位+3.14% P75+11.83% 上漲比65% Up/Dn37.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 2日 中位+1.98% P75+10.21% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 HPE 2日 中位+1.92% P75+5.31% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 MCHP 3日 中位+1.89% P75+5.07% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 LITE 2日 中位+1.85% P75+4.57% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 NTAP 2日 中位+1.73% P75+5.83% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 AMD 3日 中位+1.68% P75+4.69% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 JBL 中位+1.51% P75+5.38% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30%/20% 開富途

10-12

8/19
  1. #1 INTC 3日 中位+2.65% P75+10.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn37.5%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 2日 中位+2.49% P75+5.17% 上漲比65% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 HPE 2日 中位+2.29% P75+4.32% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 HPQ 2日 中位+1.94% P75+4.83% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 LITE 2日 中位+1.48% P75+5.90% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 EW 中位+1.44% P75+3.94% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 GILD 2日 中位+1.36% P75+2.91% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 AMD 3日 中位+1.09% P75+7.06% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途

10-13

8/30
  1. #1 INTC 3日 中位+3.87% P75+11.32% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 3日 中位+3.42% P75+8.95% 上漲比70% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 MU 2日 中位+3.17% P75+7.79% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 TER 中位+2.58% P75+6.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 2日 中位+2.57% P75+5.74% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 HUM 2日 中位+2.47% P75+5.26% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 AAPL 中位+2.47% P75+3.98% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 STX 2日 中位+2.37% P75+6.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30%/12.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.INTC P75+11.32% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40% / 10% Opp7.228 開富途
  2. #2 US.MCHP P75+8.95% 上漲比70% Up/Dn35% / 15% Opp6.732 開富途
  3. #3 US.MU P75+7.79% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 12.5% Opp6.146 開富途
  4. #4 US.TER P75+6.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Opp5.259 開富途
  5. #5 US.QCOM P75+5.74% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Opp5.146 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+3.87%

P75+11.32% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40% / 10% Score43.7 Opp7.228
View chart 開富途
#2 US.MCHP Microchip Technology · Information Technology

+3.42%

P75+8.95% 上漲比70% Up/Dn35% / 15% Score49.9 Opp6.732
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+3.17%

P75+7.79% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 12.5% Score50.5 Opp6.146
View chart 開富途
#4 US.TER Teradyne · Information Technology

+2.58%

P75+6.16% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Score51.9 Opp5.259
View chart 開富途
#5 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+2.57%

P75+5.74% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score52.1 Opp5.146
View chart 開富途
#6 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

+2.47%

P75+5.26% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5% / 0% Score75.1 Opp5.948
View chart 開富途
#7 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

+2.47%

P75+3.98% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20% / 0% Score73.5 Opp6.216
View chart 開富途
#8 US.STX Seagate Technology · Information Technology

+2.37%

P75+6.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 12.5% Score52.5 Opp4.681
View chart 開富途
#9 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+2.14%

P75+5.14% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 10% Score65.9 Opp4.519
View chart 開富途
#10 US.KLAC KLA Corporation · Information Technology

+2.03%

P75+5.59% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score57.8 Opp4.611
View chart 開富途
#11 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

+1.87%

P75+3.26% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score62.7 Opp4.205
View chart 開富途
#12 US.AMAT Applied Materials · Information Technology

+1.86%

P75+6.02% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 20% Score66.8 Opp3.666
View chart 開富途
#13 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.78%

P75+3.42% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score82.6 Opp4.855
View chart 開富途
#14 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+1.73%

P75+5.44% 上漲比55% Up/Dn32.5% / 15% Score69.5 Opp3.111
View chart 開富途
#15 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

+1.52%

P75+3.71% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score76.9 Opp4.874
View chart 開富途
#16 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+1.43%

P75+3.12% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score51.8 Opp4.799
View chart 開富途
#17 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

+1.42%

P75+2.82% 上漲比65% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score64.5 Opp3.809
View chart 開富途
#18 US.CBOE Cboe Global Markets · Financials

+1.17%

P75+3.76% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score72.3 Opp3.502
View chart 開富途
#19 US.URI United Rentals · Industrials

+0.99%

P75+2.86% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score64 Opp2.635
View chart 開富途
#20 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

+0.91%

P75+3.03% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score63.7 Opp3.145
View chart 開富途
#21 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+0.90%

P75+4.89% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Score62.2 Opp3.339
View chart 開富途
#22 US.OKE Oneok · Energy

+0.88%

P75+3.10% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score74.1 Opp2.911
View chart 開富途
#23 US.AME Ametek · Industrials

+0.85%

P75+2.86% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score65.2 Opp2.454
View chart 開富途
#24 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

+0.83%

P75+2.58% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score95.3 Opp3.19
View chart 開富途
#25 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

+0.74%

P75+2.82% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score74.7 Opp3.605
View chart 開富途
#26 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

+0.71%

P75+3.43% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score77.4 Opp2.598
View chart 開富途
#27 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+0.59%

P75+6.68% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 10% Score45.5 Opp2.201
View chart 開富途
#28 US.MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology

+0.44%

P75+3.97% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn20% / 10% Score61.7 Opp1.895
View chart 開富途
#29 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+0.25%

P75+3.49% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score75.2 Opp1.937
View chart 開富途
#30 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+0.13%

P75+3.67% 上漲比50% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Score52.6 Opp1.142
View chart 開富途