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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-07

Computed at 2026年10月8日 上午7:45 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 19

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-07

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-07
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-07
DOE window 2026-07-30 → 2026-10-02
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月8日 上午7:45 HKT
Rows 19
Excluded downtrends 16
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.8–4.3

OOS n=473 Median 0.1%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.8–4.3

+0.1% OOS median · n=473

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +21.88% ann. net · n=426

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.23% exp · 62D WF

Opp study rows 24,248 with outcomes

1,505 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-07

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +1.3% · 上漲比 62.5% · Up−Dn +17.5 · 共 51 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-01

8/14
  1. #1 QCOM 2日 中位+2.70% P75+5.61% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 2日 中位+2.67% P75+5.22% 上漲比70% Up/Dn30%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 WDC 4日 中位+2.37% P75+4.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 MPWR 2日 中位+1.86% P75+4.46% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 IEX 中位+1.25% P75+2.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 FTNT 中位+1.11% P75+4.16% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 DELL 中位+1.08% P75+9.60% 上漲比50% Up/Dn37.5%/20% 開富途
  8. #8 PANW 2日 中位+0.68% P75+4.67% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/12.5% 開富途

10-02

8/11
  1. #1 SNDK 2日 中位+1.19% P75+5.59% 上漲比55% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DDOG 2日 中位+1.03% P75+4.90% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 CF 2日 中位+0.99% P75+5.00% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 GNRC 中位+0.85% P75+4.48% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CVX 2日 中位+0.83% P75+2.95% 上漲比60% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 MCHP 中位+0.70% P75+4.00% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 ELV 中位+0.55% P75+3.35% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 MAR 中位+0.51% P75+2.03% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

10-05

8/16
  1. #1 WDC 4日 中位+2.33% P75+6.01% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 AMD 2日 中位+1.78% P75+4.54% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 PANW 2日 中位+1.63% P75+5.14% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 TECH 中位+1.32% P75+3.45% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CVX 2日 中位+1.24% P75+3.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 CF 2日 中位+1.23% P75+4.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 VRSN 中位+1.17% P75+5.15% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 MRNA 中位+1.13% P75+4.91% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途

10-06

8/15
  1. #1 WDC 4日 中位+3.22% P75+8.53% 上漲比70% Up/Dn42.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DDOG 2日 中位+2.22% P75+5.59% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/13.8% 開富途
  3. #3 MPWR 2日 中位+1.44% P75+5.01% 上漲比70% Up/Dn26.3%/11.3% 開富途
  4. #4 LRCX 中位+1.30% P75+4.80% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  5. #5 KLAC 2日 中位+1.18% P75+4.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 AMGN 中位+1.08% P75+3.08% 上漲比71.3% Up/Dn11.3%/1.3% 開富途
  7. #7 HPQ 2日 中位+1.07% P75+5.93% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30%/20% 開富途
  8. #8 JBL 中位+1.00% P75+5.68% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn28.8%/6.3% 開富途

10-07

8/19
  1. #1 AMD 2日 中位+4.13% P75+6.37% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn40%/0% 開富途
  2. #2 KLAC 2日 中位+2.75% P75+5.59% 上漲比70% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 HPQ 2日 中位+2.71% P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 STX 中位+2.19% P75+6.60% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 2日 中位+2.01% P75+8.36% 上漲比60% Up/Dn35%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 WDC 4日 中位+1.89% P75+6.79% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 DVA 中位+1.69% P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 HUM 中位+1.64% P75+4.49% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.AMD P75+6.37% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn40% / 0% Opp8.469 開富途
  2. #2 US.KLAC P75+5.59% 上漲比70% Up/Dn32.5% / 15% Opp5.346 開富途
  3. #3 US.HPQ P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 5% Opp5.729 開富途
  4. #4 US.STX P75+6.60% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Opp5.126 開富途
  5. #5 US.QCOM P75+8.36% 上漲比60% Up/Dn35% / 5% Opp4.977 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+4.13%

P75+6.37% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn40% / 0% Score72.9 Opp8.469
View chart 開富途
#2 US.KLAC KLA Corporation · Information Technology

+2.75%

P75+5.59% 上漲比70% Up/Dn32.5% / 15% Score66.4 Opp5.346
View chart 開富途
#3 US.HPQ HP Inc. · Information Technology

+2.71%

P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 5% Score59.5 Opp5.729
View chart 開富途
#4 US.STX Seagate Technology · Information Technology

+2.19%

P75+6.60% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score44.8 Opp5.126
View chart 開富途
#5 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+2.01%

P75+8.36% 上漲比60% Up/Dn35% / 5% Score50.3 Opp4.977
View chart 開富途
#6 US.WDC Western Digital · Information Technology

+1.89%

P75+6.79% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35% / 12.5% Score38.6 Opp4.927
View chart 開富途
#7 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

+1.69%

P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score49.2 Opp4.009
View chart 開富途
#8 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

+1.64%

P75+4.49% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score75 Opp4.175
View chart 開富途
#9 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

+1.42%

P75+3.43% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score59.9 Opp3.827
View chart 開富途
#10 US.MSI Motorola Solutions · Information Technology

+1.33%

P75+3.88% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Score59.7 Opp3.198
View chart 開富途
#11 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.23%

P75+2.85% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score62.1 Opp3.458
View chart 開富途
#12 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+1.11%

P75+4.93% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Score44.5 Opp2.676
View chart 開富途
#13 US.IQV IQVIA · Health Care

+1.04%

P75+3.94% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score50.1 Opp3.801
View chart 開富途
#14 US.MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology

+0.84%

P75+4.16% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score79.2 Opp3.774
View chart 開富途
#15 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

+0.52%

P75+2.96% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score78 Opp1.995
View chart 開富途
#16 US.EOG EOG Resources · Energy

+0.28%

P75+3.94% 上漲比50% Up/Dn20% / 5% Score70.4 Opp1.493
View chart 開富途
#17 US.CHD Church & Dwight · Consumer Staples

+0.26%

P75+2.78% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score57.1 Opp1.833
View chart 開富途
#18 US.APA APA Corporation · Energy

+0.25%

P75+3.78% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score64.9 Opp2.182
View chart 開富途
#19 US.RL Ralph Lauren Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

+0.18%

P75+2.34% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score65.4 Opp1.305
View chart 開富途