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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1% · 下跌比 63.8% · Dn−Up +11.3 · 共 29 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-01

7/7
  1. #1 ROL 2日 中位-2.14% P25-4.69% 下跌比75% Dn/Up22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DHR 中位-1.60% P25-3.82% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 NVR 中位-1.36% P25-3.35% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 ERIE 中位-1.25% P25-2.47% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MKC 2日 中位-1.13% P25-2.35% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 CCL 中位-1.06% P25-2.76% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 TMUS 2日 中位-0.85% P25-3.11% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途

10-05

8/12
  1. #1 FICO 2日 中位-2.64% P25-6.69% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up37.5%/20% 開富途
  2. #2 PSKY 中位-1.58% P25-4.84% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up25%/12.5% 開富途
  3. #3 CPRT 中位-1.23% P25-3.36% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 BLDR 2日 中位-0.95% P25-2.82% 下跌比55% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 CDW 中位-0.93% P25-4.55% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up25%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 AMT 中位-0.92% P25-1.93% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 TSCO 中位-0.88% P25-2.59% 下跌比70% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 ROL 2日 中位-0.83% P25-3.00% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.HSY P25-2.98% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up15% / 0% 中位-1.71% 開富途
  2. #2 US.STZ P25-3.28% 下跌比70% Dn/Up15% / 2.5% 中位-1.02% 開富途
  3. #3 US.MKC P25-3.80% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up12.5% / 0% 中位-0.88% 開富途
  4. #4 US.ADSK P25-3.48% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5% / 7.5% 中位-0.64% 開富途
  5. #5 US.AXON P25-2.93% 下跌比55% Dn/Up15% / 5% 中位-0.55% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.HSY Hershey Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.71%

P25-2.98% Down72.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score49.7 DownOpp3.882
View chart 開富途
#2 US.STZ Constellation Brands · Consumer Staples

-1.02%

P25-3.28% Down70% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score82.2 DownOpp2.673
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-0.88%

P25-3.80% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score55.5 DownOpp2.414
View chart 開富途
#4 US.ADSK Autodesk · Information Technology

-0.64%

P25-3.48% Down62.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score84.1 DownOpp1.429
View chart 開富途
#5 US.AXON Axon Enterprise · Industrials

-0.55%

P25-2.93% Down55% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score43.8 DownOpp1.054
View chart 開富途
#6 US.COIN Coinbase · Financials

-0.21%

P25-4.53% Down50% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score39.1 DownOpp0.749
View chart 開富途