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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-01

Computed at 2026年10月2日 上午7:47 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 14

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-01

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-01
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-01
DOE window 2026-07-24 → 2026-09-28
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月2日 上午7:47 HKT
Rows 14
Excluded downtrends 18
Review DOE calibration
Buy band (stable Opp plateau) 3.0–3.5

OOS n=935 Median 0.16%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.0–3.5

+0.16% OOS median · n=935

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +8.44% ann. net · n=1071

Rolling best TP/SL TP 6% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.49% exp · 77D WF

Opp study rows 24,951 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-01

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +1.8% · 上漲比 67.5% · Up−Dn +15 · 共 62 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

09-25

8/26
  1. #1 HAL 中位+2.62% P75+4.87% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  2. #2 OXY 中位+2.09% P75+4.16% 上漲比75% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 COHR 中位+1.74% P75+4.66% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn22.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 LH 中位+1.67% P75+3.35% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 PSX 2日 中位+1.63% P75+5.12% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  6. #6 APA 中位+1.63% P75+3.81% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 WMB 中位+1.59% P75+3.56% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 COP 中位+1.54% P75+4.60% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途

09-28

8/20
  1. #1 GLW 2日 中位+2.66% P75+7.32% 上漲比70% Up/Dn35%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DVA 中位+2.35% P75+5.10% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 CF 中位+2.33% P75+4.65% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 MPC 中位+1.79% P75+4.40% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MRNA 中位+1.78% P75+4.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 PSX 2日 中位+1.41% P75+4.19% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 SLB 中位+1.41% P75+3.56% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 BKR 中位+1.41% P75+3.21% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途

09-29

8/23
  1. #1 VLO 中位+2.44% P75+4.71% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 DELL 3日 中位+2.41% P75+8.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 QCOM 3日 中位+2.41% P75+8.09% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 MRVL 中位+2.10% P75+4.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 JCI 中位+2.01% P75+3.92% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 ANET 中位+1.74% P75+5.35% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 CNC 中位+1.45% P75+5.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 TT 中位+1.25% P75+3.22% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

09-30

8/15
  1. #1 FFIV 中位+2.63% P75+4.89% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 2日 中位+2.42% P75+4.89% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn25%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 DELL 3日 中位+2.39% P75+8.40% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  4. #4 GLW 2日 中位+1.56% P75+6.17% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 RVTY 中位+1.41% P75+4.42% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 WDC 2日 中位+1.19% P75+5.34% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 QCOM 3日 中位+1.12% P75+5.99% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 DXCM 中位+0.76% P75+3.17% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

10-01

8/14
  1. #1 QCOM 3日 中位+2.70% P75+5.61% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 2日 中位+2.67% P75+5.22% 上漲比70% Up/Dn30%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 WDC 2日 中位+2.37% P75+4.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 MPWR 中位+1.86% P75+4.46% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 IEX 中位+1.25% P75+2.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 FTNT 中位+1.11% P75+4.16% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 DELL 3日 中位+1.08% P75+9.60% 上漲比50% Up/Dn37.5%/20% 開富途
  8. #8 PANW 中位+0.68% P75+4.67% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/12.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.QCOM P75+5.61% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Opp5.434 開富途
  2. #2 US.SNDK P75+5.22% 上漲比70% Up/Dn30% / 10% Opp5.489 開富途
  3. #3 US.WDC P75+4.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp4.302 開富途
  4. #4 US.MPWR P75+4.46% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Opp5.177 開富途
  5. #5 US.IEX P75+2.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Opp3.343 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+2.70%

P75+5.61% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score50.9 Opp5.434
View chart 開富途
#2 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+2.67%

P75+5.22% 上漲比70% Up/Dn30% / 10% Score68.5 Opp5.489
View chart 開富途
#3 US.WDC Western Digital · Information Technology

+2.37%

P75+4.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Score59.6 Opp4.302
View chart 開富途
#4 US.MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology

+1.86%

P75+4.46% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Score73.6 Opp5.177
View chart 開富途
#5 US.IEX IDEX Corporation · Industrials

+1.25%

P75+2.94% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score74.4 Opp3.343
View chart 開富途
#6 US.FTNT Fortinet · Information Technology

+1.11%

P75+4.16% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score74.3 Opp4.157
View chart 開富途
#7 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+1.08%

P75+9.60% 上漲比50% Up/Dn37.5% / 20% Score51.5 Opp2.666
View chart 開富途
#8 US.PANW Palo Alto Networks · Information Technology

+0.68%

P75+4.67% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Score71.7 Opp2.235
View chart 開富途
#9 US.GNRC Generac · Industrials

+0.64%

P75+2.78% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score63.9 Opp1.564
View chart 開富途
#10 US.FCX Freeport-McMoRan · Materials

+0.63%

P75+4.40% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn20% / 5% Score53.8 Opp2.434
View chart 開富途
#11 US.APD Air Products · Materials

+0.57%

P75+2.31% 上漲比60% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score53.3 Opp2.347
View chart 開富途
#12 US.PH Parker Hannifin · Industrials

+0.50%

P75+3.55% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score59 Opp1.88
View chart 開富途
#13 US.TROW T. Rowe Price · Financials

+0.42%

P75+1.90% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score71.8 Opp1.634
View chart 開富途
#14 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+0.14%

P75+2.65% 上漲比50% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score53.2 Opp1.051
View chart 開富途