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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.3% · 下跌比 61.3% · Dn−Up +12.5 · 共 20 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-22

8/9
  1. #1 META 中位-1.60% P25-4.90% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up25%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 CEG 2日 中位-1.44% P25-3.35% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 NRG 4日 中位-1.37% P25-3.25% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 CVNA 2日 中位-1.33% P25-3.88% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 CMG 3日 中位-1.31% P25-3.57% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 ADBE 2日 中位-0.31% P25-3.92% 下跌比50% Dn/Up17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 LEN 2日 中位-0.18% P25-3.09% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 INTU 中位-0.12% P25-3.64% 下跌比55% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途

10-23

8/13
  1. #1 VST 4日 中位-1.67% P25-4.00% 下跌比70% Dn/Up20%/0% 開富途
  2. #2 CVNA 2日 中位-1.60% P25-3.83% 下跌比80% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 FDXF 中位-1.50% P25-3.70% 下跌比60% Dn/Up20%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 CMG 3日 中位-1.47% P25-2.66% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 DASH 中位-1.32% P25-2.66% 下跌比75% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 NRG 4日 中位-1.30% P25-3.25% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 ORCL 中位-1.22% P25-5.41% 下跌比60% Dn/Up27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 SMCI 中位-1.04% P25-6.74% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up27.5%/15% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.VST P25-4.00% 下跌比70% Dn/Up20% / 0% 中位-1.67% 開富途
  2. #2 US.CVNA P25-3.83% 下跌比80% Dn/Up15% / 5% 中位-1.60% 開富途
  3. #3 US.FDXF P25-3.70% 下跌比60% Dn/Up20% / 7.5% 中位-1.50% 開富途
  4. #4 US.CMG P25-2.66% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-1.47% 開富途
  5. #5 US.DASH P25-2.66% 下跌比75% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-1.32% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-1.67%

P25-4.00% Down70% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score43.8 DownOpp3.941
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-1.60%

P25-3.83% Down80% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score38.5 DownOpp4.369
View chart 開富途
#3 US.FDXF FedEx Freight · Industrials

-1.50%

P25-3.70% Down60% Dn/Up520% / 7.5% Score43.3 DownOpp2.45
View chart 開富途
#4 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-1.47%

P25-2.66% Down77.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score35.8 DownOpp4.066
View chart 開富途
#5 US.DASH DoorDash · Consumer Discretionary

-1.32%

P25-2.66% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score40.5 DownOpp3.681
View chart 開富途
#6 US.NRG NRG Energy · Utilities

-1.30%

P25-3.25% Down62.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score35.8 DownOpp2.694
View chart 開富途
#7 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-1.22%

P25-5.41% Down60% Dn/Up527.5% / 12.5% Score37.2 DownOpp2.343
View chart 開富途
#8 US.SMCI Supermicro · Information Technology

-1.04%

P25-6.74% Down57.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 15% Score50.8 DownOpp2.044
View chart 開富途
#9 US.CEG Constellation Energy · Utilities

-0.97%

P25-3.37% Down55% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score35.8 DownOpp1.794
View chart 開富途
#10 US.AXON Axon Enterprise · Industrials

-0.57%

P25-4.63% Down55% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score65.9 DownOpp1.183
View chart 開富途
#11 US.SYF Synchrony Financial · Financials

-0.51%

P25-2.81% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score57.4 DownOpp1.782
View chart 開富途
#12 US.SNPS Synopsys · Information Technology

-0.17%

P25-4.19% Down50% Dn/Up525% / 15% Score37.7 DownOpp0.035
View chart 開富途
#13 US.TTD Trade Desk (The) · Communication Services

-0.07%

P25-3.77% Down50% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score66.6 DownOpp0.363
View chart 開富途