歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序;僅供研究覆核,非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選(中位<0) · 中位<0 · DN>UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
Filters
短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻(中位<0 · DN>UP · 排除強勢上升),按中位跌幅排序;每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.3% · 下跌比 65% · Dn−Up +11.3 · 共 30 檔(去重)

已參與 — 檔

10-15

8/13
  1. #1 AJG 中位-3.26% P25-4.82% 下跌比87.5% Dn/Up25%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 AXON 中位-1.71% P25-5.20% 下跌比65% Dn/Up27.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 FICO 中位-1.64% P25-5.12% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 LDOS 中位-1.42% P25-3.46% 下跌比75% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 CPRT 中位-1.26% P25-3.87% 下跌比75% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 OTIS 2日 中位-1.13% P25-2.94% 下跌比65% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 SBAC 中位-0.98% P25-3.53% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CSGP 中位-0.87% P25-4.40% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up22.5%/10% 開富途

10-16

8/9
  1. #1 LII 中位-1.90% P25-3.45% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 VMC 中位-1.87% P25-4.04% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up20%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 EXE 中位-1.33% P25-4.03% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 OTIS 2日 中位-1.13% P25-2.54% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CMS 中位-1.01% P25-3.63% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 AOS 中位-0.93% P25-3.40% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 FOX 中位-0.90% P25-4.11% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 HSY 中位-0.22% P25-2.41% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.NRG P25-3.65% 下跌比70% Dn/Up15% / 0% 中位-1.41% 開富途
  2. #2 US.CEG P25-3.11% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-1.26% 開富途
  3. #3 US.BLDR P25-3.92% 下跌比65% Dn/Up20% / 0% 中位-1.13% 開富途
  4. #4 US.VST P25-1.69% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-0.67% 開富途
  5. #5 US.ADBE P25-3.70% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up12.5% / 2.5% 中位-0.52% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序,其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up;不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN>UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列,按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計,不是交易建議;請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.NRG NRG Energy · Utilities

-1.41%

P25-3.65% Down70% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score44.9 DownOpp3.586
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CEG Constellation Energy · Utilities

-1.26%

P25-3.11% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score41.8 DownOpp2.724
View chart 開富途
#3 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-1.13%

P25-3.92% Down65% Dn/Up520% / 0% Score53.5 DownOpp2.909
View chart 開富途
#4 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.67%

P25-1.69% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score55.6 DownOpp1.676
View chart 開富途
#5 US.ADBE Adobe Inc. · Information Technology

-0.52%

P25-3.70% Down57.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score66.4 DownOpp1.397
View chart 開富途