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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-21

Computed at 2026年10月22日 上午7:45 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 27

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-21

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-21
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-21
DOE window 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-16
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月22日 上午7:45 HKT
Rows 27
Excluded downtrends 26
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 10D

5+ · -11.3% ann. net · n=262

Rolling best TP/SL TP 4% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.26% exp · 76D WF

Opp study rows 22,866 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-21

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2.2% · 上漲比 67.5% · Up−Dn +17.5 · 共 68 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-15

8/23
  1. #1 STX 中位+7.49% P75+11.38% 上漲比75% Up/Dn57.5%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 3日 中位+3.44% P75+10.00% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn45%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 INTC 4日 中位+3.15% P75+7.83% 上漲比75% Up/Dn37.5%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 LH 中位+2.47% P75+3.88% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 MRVL 中位+2.20% P75+5.61% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 QCOM 中位+2.18% P75+5.13% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 FTNT 中位+2.13% P75+4.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 HUM 中位+2.03% P75+4.92% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途

10-16

8/23
  1. #1 AMD 3日 中位+7.47% P75+11.44% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn62.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 3日 中位+5.38% P75+10.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn52.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 SNDK 4日 中位+5.05% P75+10.80% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 DELL 3日 中位+4.63% P75+10.55% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5%/10% 開富途
  5. #5 INTC 4日 中位+4.15% P75+9.72% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn47.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 HPE 中位+2.40% P75+7.54% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/22.5% 開富途
  7. #7 MRK 中位+1.98% P75+3.50% 上漲比75% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 VLO 中位+1.94% P75+4.11% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途

10-19

8/20
  1. #1 SNDK 4日 中位+4.34% P75+10.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn42.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 中位+3.17% P75+7.47% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  3. #3 KEYS 中位+3.08% P75+7.72% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 AMD 3日 中位+2.38% P75+6.17% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 PANW 中位+2.34% P75+8.28% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  6. #6 DELL 3日 中位+2.09% P75+5.41% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 ZBRA 中位+1.78% P75+4.46% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 DXCM 中位+1.28% P75+2.87% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途

10-20

8/34
  1. #1 DELL 3日 中位+4.76% P75+11.20% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 4日 中位+2.64% P75+9.15% 上漲比60% Up/Dn42.5%/22.5% 開富途
  3. #3 AMD 3日 中位+2.44% P75+6.29% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  4. #4 MRNA 2日 中位+2.30% P75+4.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MU 3日 中位+1.98% P75+6.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5%/22.5% 開富途
  6. #6 XOM 中位+1.98% P75+3.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 4日 中位+1.97% P75+8.78% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CNC 中位+1.75% P75+2.90% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途

10-21

8/27
  1. #1 LITE 中位+2.34% P75+7.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn37.5%/15% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 4日 中位+2.34% P75+6.81% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 BMY 中位+1.98% P75+3.75% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 TXN 中位+1.73% P75+5.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MRNA 2日 中位+1.56% P75+3.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 NEM 中位+1.50% P75+3.20% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 4日 中位+1.49% P75+8.04% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 BALL 中位+1.37% P75+3.27% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.LITE 研究門檻符合 P75+7.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn37.5% / 15% Opp5 開富途
  2. #2 US.SNDK 研究門檻符合 P75+6.81% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35% / 15% Opp5.248 開富途
  3. #3 US.BMY P75+3.75% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp5.037 開富途
  4. #4 US.TXN P75+5.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Opp4.389 開富途
  5. #5 US.MRNA 研究門檻符合 P75+3.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Opp4.793 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+2.34%

P75+7.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn37.5% / 15% Score39.3 Opp5
View chart 開富途
#2 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+2.34%

P75+6.81% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35% / 15% Score40.7 Opp5.248
View chart 開富途
#3 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

+1.98%

P75+3.75% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score62.6 Opp5.037
View chart 開富途
#4 US.TXN Texas Instruments · Information Technology

+1.73%

P75+5.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Score72.8 Opp4.389
View chart 開富途
#5 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.56%

P75+3.31% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score80.7 Opp4.793
View chart 開富途
#6 US.NEM Newmont · Materials

+1.50%

P75+3.20% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score75.7 Opp4.468
View chart 開富途
#7 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+1.49%

P75+8.04% 上漲比60% Up/Dn40% / 12.5% Score41.1 Opp3.858
View chart 開富途
#8 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

+1.37%

P75+3.27% 上漲比75% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score71.1 Opp4.721
View chart 開富途
#9 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+1.32%

P75+6.88% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 20% Score38.4 Opp3.128
View chart 開富途
#10 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+1.32%

P75+5.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 10% Score37.3 Opp3.417
View chart 開富途
#11 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

+1.30%

P75+3.30% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score70.8 Opp4.256
View chart 開富途
#12 US.NXPI NXP Semiconductors · Information Technology

+1.25%

P75+4.82% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Score71 Opp3.888
View chart 開富途
#13 US.HPQ HP Inc. · Information Technology

+1.21%

P75+4.82% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Score55.3 Opp2.88
View chart 開富途
#14 US.IVZ Invesco · Financials

+1.07%

P75+3.53% 上漲比65% Up/Dn20% / 7.5% Score61.1 Opp3.161
View chart 開富途
#15 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+0.95%

P75+5.12% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 10% Score38.1 Opp2.916
View chart 開富途
#16 US.SWKS Skyworks Solutions · Information Technology

+0.80%

P75+5.63% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30% / 10% Score59.3 Opp2.652
View chart 開富途
#17 US.CBOE Cboe Global Markets · Financials

+0.73%

P75+2.40% 上漲比60% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score81 Opp2.738
View chart 開富途
#18 US.APA APA Corporation · Energy

+0.64%

P75+3.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score73.8 Opp2.804
View chart 開富途
#19 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+0.63%

P75+5.12% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Score38.7 Opp2.35
View chart 開富途
#20 US.NVDA Nvidia · Information Technology

+0.53%

P75+3.74% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score49.1 Opp2.283
View chart 開富途
#21 US.BIIB Biogen · Health Care

+0.53%

P75+2.37% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score69.9 Opp1.897
View chart 開富途
#22 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+0.47%

P75+5.25% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Score44.2 Opp1.764
View chart 開富途
#23 US.PANW Palo Alto Networks · Information Technology

+0.42%

P75+7.38% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 22.5% Score40.1 Opp1.416
View chart 開富途
#24 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

+0.42%

P75+2.69% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score72.6 Opp2.087
View chart 開富途
#25 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

+0.37%

P75+2.95% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score59 Opp1.65
View chart 開富途
#26 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

+0.22%

P75+3.70% 上漲比55% Up/Dn20% / 10% Score66.1 Opp1.441
View chart 開富途
#27 US.HUBB Hubbell Incorporated · Industrials

+0.12%

P75+1.31% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score54.6 Opp1.057
View chart 開富途