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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-22
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-22
DOE window 2026-07-15 → 2026-09-17
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月23日 上午7:54 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 340

Downside ranking

US.NVR · -2.48% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-2.48%
Top down rate75%
Top P25-3.93%
DOE score2.317

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-2.48%

P25-3.93% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score65.7 DownOpp4.52
View chart 開富途
#2 US.PTC PTC Inc. · Information Technology

-2.36%

P25-7.01% Down67.5% Dn/Up535% / 15% Score67.8 DownOpp4.104
View chart 開富途
#3 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-1.77%

P25-9.15% Down57.5% Dn/Up535% / 12.5% Score62 DownOpp3.443
View chart 開富途
#4 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-2.25%

P25-3.66% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 17.5% Score66.6 DownOpp3.416
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-1.46%

P25-3.33% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score55 DownOpp3.18
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-1.92%

P25-2.96% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score58.8 DownOpp3.119
View chart 開富途
#7 US.XEL Xcel Energy · Utilities

-0.68%

P25-1.62% Down80% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score49.9 DownOpp3.111
View chart 開富途
#8 US.DUK Duke Energy · Utilities

-0.91%

P25-1.96% Down72.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score50.4 DownOpp2.822
View chart 開富途
#9 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.87%

P25-2.36% Down75% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score85.5 DownOpp2.819
View chart 開富途
#10 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.18%

P25-2.30% Down65% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score51.8 DownOpp2.567
View chart 開富途
#11 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-1.14%

P25-2.16% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 10% Score56.8 DownOpp2.454
View chart 開富途
#12 US.PEG Public Service Enterprise Group · Utilities

-0.86%

P25-1.58% Down65% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score44.7 DownOpp2.12
View chart 開富途
#13 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-0.68%

P25-3.13% Down67.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score59 DownOpp2.12
View chart 開富途
#14 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-1.15%

P25-1.91% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score47.8 DownOpp2.119
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#15 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.48%

P25-1.51% Down67.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score44.1 DownOpp1.927
View chart 開富途
#16 US.KMB Kimberly-Clark · Consumer Staples

-0.81%

P25-3.10% Down60% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score48.4 DownOpp1.872
View chart 開富途
#17 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-1.67%

P25-4.00% Down57.5% Dn/Up510% / 17.5% Score49.3 DownOpp1.85
View chart 開富途
#18 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-0.77%

P25-1.98% Down65% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score46.5 DownOpp1.816
View chart 開富途
#19 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-2.57% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score59.1 DownOpp1.799
View chart 開富途
#20 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-2.20% Down65% Dn/Up50% / 7.5% Score47.1 DownOpp1.787
View chart 開富途
#21 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.80%

P25-2.65% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score53.6 DownOpp1.761
View chart 開富途
#22 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.94%

P25-2.49% Down65% Dn/Up50% / 10% Score60.2 DownOpp1.711
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#23 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.68%

P25-1.53% Down62.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score49 DownOpp1.695
View chart 開富途
#24 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.82%

P25-2.46% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score60.2 DownOpp1.684
View chart 開富途
#25 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-2.07% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score53.6 DownOpp1.675
View chart 開富途
#26 US.ULTA Ulta Beauty · Consumer Discretionary

-0.93%

P25-2.41% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score54.8 DownOpp1.672
View chart 開富途
#27 US.WEC WEC Energy Group · Utilities

-0.67%

P25-1.86% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score46.6 DownOpp1.636
View chart 開富途
#28 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-0.87%

P25-3.52% Down57.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score56.2 DownOpp1.629
View chart 開富途
#29 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.62%

P25-2.39% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score46.3 DownOpp1.52
View chart 開富途
#30 US.TDG TransDigm Group · Industrials

-0.93%

P25-2.31% Down65% Dn/Up57.5% / 12.5% Score64.3 DownOpp1.475
View chart 開富途
#31 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.56%

P25-1.62% Down60% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score46.2 DownOpp1.419
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#32 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.55%

P25-2.50% Down57.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score48.7 DownOpp1.41
View chart 開富途
#33 US.CDNS Cadence Design Systems · Information Technology

-1.31%

P25-4.09% Down52.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 10% Score70.1 DownOpp1.407
View chart 開富途
#34 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-1.06%

P25-2.78% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score60.3 DownOpp1.403
View chart 開富途
#35 US.ATO Atmos Energy · Utilities

-0.63%

P25-1.33% Down60% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score48.3 DownOpp1.4
View chart 開富途
#36 US.EXC Exelon · Utilities

-0.56%

P25-1.44% Down60% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score45.6 DownOpp1.378
View chart 開富途
#37 US.BX Blackstone Inc. · Financials

-0.48%

P25-2.41% Down60% Dn/Up50% / 2.5% Score48.1 DownOpp1.372
View chart 開富途
#38 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-1.12%

P25-3.18% Down60% Dn/Up512.5% / 15% Score66.7 DownOpp1.315
View chart 開富途
#39 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.80%

P25-2.16% Down60% Dn/Up510% / 10% Score43.9 DownOpp1.211
View chart 開富途
#40 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-1.11%

P25-6.00% Down57.5% Dn/Up532.5% / 27.5% Score54.6 DownOpp1.151
View chart 開富途
#41 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.12%

P25-3.49% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 12.5% Score66 DownOpp1.148
View chart 開富途
#42 US.AMT American Tower · Real Estate

-0.51%

P25-1.69% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score60.4 DownOpp1.13
View chart 開富途
#43 US.SNPS Synopsys · Information Technology

-1.24%

P25-2.96% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 12.5% Score72.2 DownOpp1.088
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#44 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-0.86%

P25-2.94% Down60% Dn/Up55% / 17.5% Score46.8 DownOpp0.994
View chart 開富途
#45 US.SRE Sempra · Utilities

-0.32%

P25-1.60% Down57.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score49.7 DownOpp0.947
View chart 開富途
#46 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-0.69%

P25-2.61% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 10% Score57.7 DownOpp0.91
View chart 開富途
#47 US.SPGI S&P Global · Financials

-0.40%

P25-2.32% Down57.5% Dn/Up50% / 5% Score49.8 DownOpp0.907
View chart 開富途
#48 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-0.12%

P25-2.11% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score47.6 DownOpp0.891
View chart 開富途
#49 US.VICI Vici Properties · Real Estate

-0.39%

P25-1.76% Down55% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score46.8 DownOpp0.879
View chart 開富途
#50 US.RSG Republic Services · Industrials

-0.56%

P25-1.74% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 12.5% Score50.2 DownOpp0.869
View chart 開富途