S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.HD · -1.60% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.60%

Top down rate75%

Top P25-2.49%

DOE score2.318

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-1.60%

P25-2.49% Down75% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score53.7 DownOpp3.742

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#2 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.60%

P25-2.50% Down72.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score53.5 DownOpp3.546

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#3 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-1.43%

P25-2.42% Down72.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.3% Score53.1 DownOpp3.359

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#4 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-1.43%

P25-2.53% Down68.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 6.3% Score54.6 DownOpp2.779

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#5 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.33%

P25-2.37% Down67.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 3.8% Score54.6 DownOpp2.685

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#6 US.SO Southern Company · Utilities

-1.04%

P25-2.04% Down68.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score54.4 DownOpp2.646

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#7 US.SRE Sempra · Utilities

-0.93%

P25-1.74% Down70% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score53.5 DownOpp2.564

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#8 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.98%

P25-2.46% Down68.8% Dn/Up51.3% / 3.8% Score50.1 DownOpp2.495

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#9 US.ATO Atmos Energy · Utilities

-0.90%

P25-1.95% Down68.8% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score55.1 DownOpp2.478

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#10 US.CRWD CrowdStrike · Information Technology

-1.25%

P25-5.81% Down62.5% Dn/Up528.8% / 8.8% Score94.6 DownOpp2.465

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#11 US.XEL Xcel Energy · Utilities

-0.52%

P25-1.62% Down73.8% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score50.6 DownOpp2.449

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#12 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-1.27%

P25-2.51% Down67.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 10% Score59.6 DownOpp2.251

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#13 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.74%

P25-1.67% Down67.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score51.4 DownOpp2.172

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#14 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-0.96%

P25-2.82% Down66.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 6.3% Score60.5 DownOpp2.137

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#15 US.FICO Fair Isaac · Information Technology

-1.73%

P25-4.13% Down61.3% Dn/Up521.3% / 20% Score48.2 DownOpp2.105

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#16 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-1.13%

P25-3.03% Down63.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 10% Score49.7 DownOpp2.019

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#17 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-2.41% Down63.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.3% Score52.8 DownOpp1.983

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#18 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.88%

P25-2.14% Down63.8% Dn/Up51.3% / 2.5% Score54.3 DownOpp1.962

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#19 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-2.39% Down62.5% Dn/Up56.3% / 3.8% Score47.8 DownOpp1.851

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#20 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.77%

P25-2.56% Down63.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score57.9 DownOpp1.78

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#21 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.15%

P25-2.49% Down58.8% Dn/Up53.8% / 6.3% Score43.9 DownOpp1.769

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#22 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-1.00%

P25-2.55% Down60% Dn/Up56.3% / 3.8% Score78.9 DownOpp1.618

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#23 US.T AT&T · Communication Services

-0.61%

P25-2.67% Down61.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 2.5% Score56.8 DownOpp1.606

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#24 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.93%

P25-1.66% Down62.5% Dn/Up56.3% / 8.8% Score54.7 DownOpp1.407

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#25 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.92%

P25-3.01% Down58.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 8.8% Score58.8 DownOpp1.407

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#26 US.WTW Willis Towers Watson · Financials

-0.46%

P25-2.04% Down60% Dn/Up51.3% / 1.3% Score46.8 DownOpp1.341

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#27 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-0.46%

P25-2.03% Down61.3% Dn/Up51.3% / 3.8% Score43.6 DownOpp1.316

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#28 US.TDG TransDigm Group · Industrials

-0.59%

P25-2.08% Down61.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 6.3% Score48.2 DownOpp1.274

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#29 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-0.66%

P25-2.31% Down58.8% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score50.3 DownOpp1.264

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#30 US.MRSH Marsh McLennan · Financials

-0.37%

P25-2.07% Down61.3% Dn/Up51.3% / 3.8% Score46.3 DownOpp1.216

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#31 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.48%

P25-2.40% Down58.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score45.7 DownOpp1.141

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#32 US.CCI Crown Castle · Real Estate

-0.66%

P25-2.12% Down53.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.3% Score47 DownOpp1.063

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#33 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.34%

P25-1.45% Down58.8% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score48.2 DownOpp1.045

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#34 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.30% Down60% Dn/Up53.8% / 7.5% Score73.3 DownOpp1.035

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#35 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-0.86%

P25-3.58% Down53.8% Dn/Up516.3% / 11.3% Score46.6 DownOpp1.031

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#36 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-2.77% Down58.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 8.8% Score62.8 DownOpp1.027

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#37 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-0.88%

P25-2.59% Down61.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 16.3% Score59.7 DownOpp1.006

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#38 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.77%

P25-3.33% Down57.5% Dn/Up511.3% / 15% Score40.5 DownOpp0.999

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#39 US.MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities · Real Estate

-0.59%

P25-2.06% Down52.5% Dn/Up51.3% / 0% Score48.8 DownOpp0.939

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#40 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.59%

P25-2.52% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score57.8 DownOpp0.936

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#41 US.Q Qnity Electronics · Information Technology

-1.06%

P25-4.09% Down53.8% Dn/Up522.5% / 20% Score43.8 DownOpp0.858

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#42 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.53%

P25-2.18% Down58.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 10% Score50.8 DownOpp0.798

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#43 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.77%

P25-2.91% Down56.3% Dn/Up510% / 15% Score44.3 DownOpp0.769

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#44 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-0.56%

P25-2.16% Down57.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 10% Score50.5 DownOpp0.721

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#45 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-2.78% Down56.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 15% Score44 DownOpp0.689

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#46 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-0.45%

P25-1.84% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 10% Score56.9 DownOpp0.683

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#47 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.77%

P25-2.36% Down56.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 15% Score46.9 DownOpp0.612

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#48 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.62%

P25-2.04% Down57.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 11.3% Score66.2 DownOpp0.556

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#49 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.67%

P25-3.04% Down52.5% Dn/Up56.3% / 15% Score47.1 DownOpp0.377

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#50 US.CBRE CBRE Group · Real Estate

-0.20%

P25-1.42% Down55% Dn/Up51.3% / 2.5% Score58.1 DownOpp0.369

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=80

US.HD · -1.60% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking