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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=80

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-15
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-15
DOE window 2026-07-08 → 2026-09-08
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月16日 上午7:45 HKT
Rows 35
Excluded uptrends 355

Downside ranking

US.CCL · -1.19% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.19%
Top down rate71.3%
Top P25-2.24%
DOE score2.38

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.19%

P25-2.24% Down71.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score51.3 DownOpp3.069
View chart 開富途
#2 US.FICO Fair Isaac · Information Technology

-1.72%

P25-4.82% Down61.3% Dn/Up525% / 22.5% Score47.2 DownOpp2.125
View chart 開富途
#3 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.79%

P25-2.24% Down62.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 2.5% Score47.8 DownOpp1.842
View chart 開富途
#4 US.PG Procter & Gamble · Consumer Staples

-0.95%

P25-2.71% Down58.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 1.3% Score64.9 DownOpp1.767
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.59% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 3.8% Score53.3 DownOpp1.64
View chart 開富途
#6 US.CRWD CrowdStrike · Information Technology

-1.06%

P25-5.07% Down56.3% Dn/Up525% / 10% Score93.8 DownOpp1.528
View chart 開富途
#7 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-0.99%

P25-2.90% Down57.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 8.8% Score42.8 DownOpp1.466
View chart 開富途
#8 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-0.85%

P25-3.74% Down53.8% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score40.3 DownOpp1.337
View chart 開富途
#9 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.96%

P25-2.53% Down61.3% Dn/Up55% / 13.8% Score51.2 DownOpp1.285
View chart 開富途
#10 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.19% Down58.8% Dn/Up55% / 6.3% Score49.9 DownOpp1.239
View chart 開富途
#11 US.ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities · Real Estate

-0.70%

P25-2.70% Down56.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 5% Score57.3 DownOpp1.149
View chart 開富途
#12 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-0.68%

P25-2.32% Down58.8% Dn/Up52.5% / 10% Score48.4 DownOpp1.001
View chart 開富途
#13 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.27%

P25-1.15% Down58.8% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score48.7 DownOpp0.896
View chart 開富途
#14 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.42%

P25-2.70% Down53.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 5% Score41.4 DownOpp0.788
View chart 開富途
#15 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-3.03% Down56.3% Dn/Up55% / 11.3% Score47.9 DownOpp0.744
View chart 開富途
#16 US.ULTA Ulta Beauty · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.87% Down56.3% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score55 DownOpp0.679
View chart 開富途
#17 US.CEG Constellation Energy · Utilities

-0.48%

P25-1.85% Down56.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 6.3% Score52.9 DownOpp0.672
View chart 開富途
#18 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.22%

P25-1.12% Down56.3% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score45.2 DownOpp0.665
View chart 開富途
#19 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-0.67%

P25-2.83% Down52.5% Dn/Up510% / 10% Score42 DownOpp0.662
View chart 開富途
#20 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-0.50%

P25-2.22% Down53.8% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score53.8 DownOpp0.656
View chart 開富途
#21 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.70%

P25-2.96% Down56.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 16.3% Score43.3 DownOpp0.641
View chart 開富途
#22 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.66%

P25-3.03% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 16.3% Score42.6 DownOpp0.52
View chart 開富途
#23 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-1.88% Down56.3% Dn/Up55% / 10% Score66.3 DownOpp0.447
View chart 開富途
#24 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.38%

P25-2.88% Down53.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 12.5% Score47.5 DownOpp0.298
View chart 開富途
#25 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.30%

P25-1.84% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score57.8 DownOpp0.277
View chart 開富途
#26 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-0.19%

P25-1.91% Down51.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 2.5% Score47.5 DownOpp0.265
View chart 開富途
#27 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.15%

P25-1.43% Down51.3% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score49.9 DownOpp0.237
View chart 開富途
#28 US.SRE Sempra · Utilities

-0.15%

P25-1.27% Down51.3% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score49.9 DownOpp0.197
View chart 開富途
#29 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.17%

P25-1.81% Down53.8% Dn/Up53.8% / 6.3% Score48.6 DownOpp0.184
View chart 開富途
#30 US.FSLR First Solar · Information Technology

-0.72%

P25-3.41% Down52.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 21.3% Score48.2 DownOpp0.133
View chart 開富途
#31 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-3.03% Down51.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 11.3% Score49.6 DownOpp0.131
View chart 開富途
#32 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.37%

P25-2.62% Down52.5% Dn/Up511.3% / 6.3% Score96.2 DownOpp0.125
View chart 開富途
#33 US.WTW Willis Towers Watson · Financials

-0.06%

P25-1.27% Down52.5% Dn/Up51.3% / 2.5% Score46.6 DownOpp0.078
View chart 開富途
#34 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-0.20%

P25-1.96% Down52.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 7.5% Score49.4 DownOpp0.07
View chart 開富途
#35 US.TMUS T-Mobile US · Communication Services

-0.13%

P25-2.01% Down50% Dn/Up512.5% / 3.8% Score47.2 DownOpp0.05
View chart 開富途