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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

healthy · 2026-09-15

Computed at 2026年9月16日 上午7:45 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Projection candidates 8

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=80

As-of 2026-09-15

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-15
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-15
DOE window 2026-07-08 → 2026-09-08
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月16日 上午7:45 HKT
Rows 8
Excluded downtrends 7
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=709 Median 0.16%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.16% OOS median · n=709

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +25.24% ann. net · n=1158

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.74% exp · 72D WF

Opp study rows 26,014 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-15

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 43 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-09-09

19 檔
  1. #1 BEN P75+3.02% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.695 開富途
  2. #2 TRGP P75+3.66% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Opp3.678 開富途
  3. #3 IQV P75+3.49% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.669 開富途
  4. #4 MTB P75+3.32% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.492 開富途
  5. #5 BNY P75+2.91% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 0% Opp3.476 開富途
  6. #6 KEY P75+3.15% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.475 開富途
  7. #7 AMP P75+2.70% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.459 開富途
  8. #8 DXCM P75+4.04% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn18.8% / 3.8% Opp3.453 開富途
  9. #9 MET P75+2.74% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.448 開富途
  10. #10 RF P75+3.15% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.444 開富途
  11. #11 AMGN P75+3.89% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Opp3.442 開富途
  12. #12 SLB P75+3.96% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp3.409 開富途
  13. #13 WST P75+4.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn21.3% / 2.5% Opp3.403 開富途
  14. #14 FITB P75+3.32% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.387 開富途
  15. #15 CF P75+4.67% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Opp3.373 開富途
  16. #16 XYZ P75+4.19% 上漲比65% Up/Dn18.8% / 8.8% Opp3.359 開富途
  17. #17 MS P75+3.28% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp3.261 開富途
  18. #18 BIIB P75+3.94% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 5% Opp3.246 開富途
  19. #19 CNC P75+4.52% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn20% / 6.3% Opp3.21 開富途

2026-09-10

17 檔
  1. #1 FCX P75+4.36% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Opp3.641 開富途
  2. #2 WAT P75+4.18% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn23.8% / 3.8% Opp3.64 開富途
  3. #3 DXCM P75+4.46% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn23.8% / 2.5% Opp3.609 開富途
  4. #4 MTD P75+5.13% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn26.3% / 3.8% Opp3.593 開富途
  5. #5 CNC P75+4.99% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 2.5% Opp3.509 開富途
  6. #6 XOM P75+3.31% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp3.477 開富途
  7. #7 CF P75+4.98% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn23.8% / 8.8% Opp3.409 開富途
  8. #8 JNJ P75+4.16% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn23.8% / 2.5% Opp3.403 開富途
  9. #9 MRK P75+3.98% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn21.3% / 1.3% Opp3.396 開富途
  10. #10 JBL P75+8.53% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn36.3% / 17.5% Opp3.393 開富途
  11. #11 L P75+3.67% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Opp3.368 開富途
  12. #12 FANG P75+3.43% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Opp3.353 開富途
  13. #13 ACGL P75+3.32% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp3.335 開富途
  14. #14 VRSN P75+3.55% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.234 開富途
  15. #15 AMP P75+2.62% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.228 開富途
  16. #16 MTB P75+3.17% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.225 開富途
  17. #17 ALL P75+2.86% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.218 開富途

2026-09-11

9 檔
  1. #1 JBL P75+3.98% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn20% / 6.3% Opp3.663 開富途
  2. #2 AMAT P75+3.77% 上漲比68.8% Up/Dn22.5% / 8.8% Opp3.459 開富途
  3. #3 TMO P75+3.03% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Opp3.401 開富途
  4. #4 MRK P75+4.44% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Opp3.398 開富途
  5. #5 WST P75+3.51% 上漲比60% Up/Dn13.8% / 3.8% Opp3.336 開富途
  6. #6 BEN P75+2.62% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 1.3% Opp3.259 開富途
  7. #7 STLD P75+4.13% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 3.8% Opp3.229 開富途
  8. #8 WAT P75+3.73% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 1.3% Opp3.226 開富途
  9. #9 HLT P75+2.82% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp3.219 開富途

2026-09-15

8 檔
  1. #1 TRGP P75+4.16% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp3.626 開富途
  2. #2 CSCO P75+4.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 5% Opp3.597 開富途
  3. #3 FITB P75+2.88% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp3.487 開富途
  4. #4 AIZ P75+2.81% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Opp3.458 開富途
  5. #5 BNY P75+2.88% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.33 開富途
  6. #6 MTB P75+3.32% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 1.3% Opp3.33 開富途
  7. #7 A P75+4.72% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Opp3.28 開富途
  8. #8 SJM P75+2.30% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Opp3.202 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.TRGP P75+4.16% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp3.626 開富途
  2. #2 US.CSCO P75+4.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 5% Opp3.597 開富途
  3. #3 US.FITB P75+2.88% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Opp3.487 開富途
  4. #4 US.AIZ P75+2.81% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Opp3.458 開富途
  5. #5 US.BNY P75+2.88% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Opp3.33 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.TRGP Targa Resources · Energy

+1.36%

P75+4.16% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score50.1 Opp3.626
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CSCO Cisco · Information Technology

+0.84%

P75+4.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 5% Score59.2 Opp3.597
View chart 開富途
#3 US.FITB Fifth Third Bancorp · Financials

+1.25%

P75+2.88% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn11.3% / 1.3% Score65.5 Opp3.487
View chart 開富途
#4 US.AIZ Assurant · Financials

+1.26%

P75+2.81% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8% / 2.5% Score72.2 Opp3.458
View chart 開富途
#5 US.BNY BNY Mellon · Financials

+0.95%

P75+2.88% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn13.8% / 1.3% Score57.8 Opp3.33
View chart 開富途
#6 US.MTB M&T Bank · Financials

+0.78%

P75+3.32% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 1.3% Score53.1 Opp3.33
View chart 開富途
#7 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

+1.12%

P75+4.72% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 3.8% Score54.4 Opp3.28
View chart 開富途
#8 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

+0.98%

P75+2.30% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 1.3% Score43.3 Opp3.202
View chart 開富途