S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.SMCI · -1.66% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.66%

Top down rate61.4%

Top P25-5.37%

DOE score2.383

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.SMCI Supermicro · Information Technology

-1.66%

P25-5.37% Down61.4% Dn/Up526.6% / 15.4% Score80 DownOpp2.391

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#2 US.TRMB Trimble Inc. · Information Technology

-1.50%

P25-5.42% Down59.2% Dn/Up527% / 17.4% Score77.4 DownOpp1.967

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#3 US.CTSH Cognizant · Information Technology

-1.27%

P25-5.05% Down59% Dn/Up525.4% / 14.6% Score82.9 DownOpp1.755

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#4 US.IT Gartner · Information Technology

-1.22%

P25-5.14% Down59.2% Dn/Up525.8% / 15.8% Score79.4 DownOpp1.698

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#5 US.ACN Accenture · Information Technology

-1.08%

P25-5.02% Down58.2% Dn/Up525.2% / 16.4% Score86.7 DownOpp1.357

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#6 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-1.04%

P25-4.91% Down57.4% Dn/Up524.4% / 14.8% Score87 DownOpp1.319

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#7 US.CRM Salesforce · Information Technology

-0.99%

P25-5.00% Down55.6% Dn/Up525.2% / 17.8% Score57.9 DownOpp1.186

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#8 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

-0.84%

P25-4.51% Down55.2% Dn/Up522.8% / 15.8% Score60.8 DownOpp0.98

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#9 US.Q Qnity Electronics · Information Technology

-0.84%

P25-4.10% Down54.6% Dn/Up519.6% / 18% Score36.2 DownOpp0.881

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#10 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.66%

P25-2.72% Down56.6% Dn/Up59.4% / 8.4% Score66.4 DownOpp0.866

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#11 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.71% Down56.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 9% Score65.8 DownOpp0.708

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#12 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.38% Down55.6% Dn/Up55.8% / 5.8% Score57.3 DownOpp0.695

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#13 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.37% Down55.4% Dn/Up55.4% / 6% Score57.1 DownOpp0.666

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#14 US.SWKS Skyworks Solutions · Information Technology

-0.80%

P25-5.05% Down54.8% Dn/Up525.4% / 20.2% Score77.9 DownOpp0.65

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#15 US.ADSK Autodesk · Information Technology

-0.57%

P25-4.96% Down55.2% Dn/Up524.6% / 14.8% Score93.6 DownOpp0.636

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#16 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.36%

P25-2.27% Down55.8% Dn/Up55.6% / 6.2% Score55.6 DownOpp0.602

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#17 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.30%

P25-2.27% Down55.2% Dn/Up56% / 5.2% Score53.6 DownOpp0.57

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#18 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.53% Down55.2% Dn/Up58% / 9.6% Score68.3 DownOpp0.47

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#19 US.APP AppLovin · Information Technology

-0.60%

P25-4.28% Down52.8% Dn/Up520.8% / 18% Score47.7 DownOpp0.456

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#20 US.TYL Tyler Technologies · Information Technology

-0.62%

P25-4.47% Down53.2% Dn/Up521.8% / 18.8% Score55.4 DownOpp0.45

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#21 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-3.15% Down53.8% Dn/Up513% / 9.8% Score75.6 DownOpp0.426

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#22 US.T AT&T · Communication Services

-0.27%

P25-2.10% Down55.2% Dn/Up56.4% / 3.6% Score78.9 DownOpp0.403

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#23 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.40%

P25-2.44% Down55% Dn/Up58.4% / 9.4% Score65.4 DownOpp0.356

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#24 US.NOW ServiceNow · Information Technology

-0.45%

P25-4.63% Down52.4% Dn/Up522.8% / 17% Score57.6 DownOpp0.347

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#25 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-0.58%

P25-4.29% Down52.2% Dn/Up520.4% / 18.6% Score49.9 DownOpp0.338

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#26 US.PTC PTC Inc. · Information Technology

-0.54%

P25-4.40% Down52.6% Dn/Up521.4% / 18.8% Score55.2 DownOpp0.306

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#27 US.MSFT Microsoft · Information Technology

-0.42%

P25-3.62% Down53% Dn/Up516% / 14.8% Score57.1 DownOpp0.249

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#28 US.TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company · Consumer Staples

-0.34%

P25-2.60% Down52.4% Dn/Up58.2% / 7.8% Score63.1 DownOpp0.241

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#29 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.25%

P25-2.24% Down54.2% Dn/Up57.2% / 7.6% Score62.5 DownOpp0.221

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#30 US.TEL TE Connectivity · Information Technology

-0.36%

P25-3.71% Down53% Dn/Up516.8% / 14.8% Score56.7 DownOpp0.214

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#31 US.CDW CDW Corporation · Information Technology

-0.45%

P25-4.60% Down52.4% Dn/Up523% / 19.8% Score61.3 DownOpp0.144

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#32 US.NFLX Netflix · Communication Services

-0.09%

P25-3.39% Down50.6% Dn/Up516.2% / 6.2% Score63.3 DownOpp0.139

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#33 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.23%

P25-2.29% Down53% Dn/Up55.8% / 8.6% Score52 DownOpp0.136

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#34 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.21%

P25-2.44% Down53.2% Dn/Up58.2% / 7.4% Score68.8 DownOpp0.116

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#35 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.23%

P25-1.99% Down53.4% Dn/Up56.6% / 4.6% Score81.2 DownOpp0.114

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#36 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.18%

P25-2.47% Down52.2% Dn/Up58.2% / 6.4% Score66 DownOpp0.095

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#37 US.DIS Walt Disney Company (The) · Communication Services

-0.06%

P25-2.69% Down51% Dn/Up513% / 5.2% Score58.1 DownOpp0.065

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#38 US.CBRE CBRE Group · Real Estate

-0.16%

P25-1.86% Down51.8% Dn/Up54% / 2.8% Score73.3 DownOpp0.051

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#39 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.18%

P25-2.45% Down51.8% Dn/Up57.6% / 8.8% Score49.6 DownOpp0.036

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#40 US.ULTA Ulta Beauty · Consumer Discretionary

-0.16%

P25-1.97% Down52.8% Dn/Up57% / 6.8% Score57.9 DownOpp0.034

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.SMCI · -1.66% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking