S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.SMCI · -1.65% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.65%

Top down rate61.2%

Top P25-5.37%

DOE score2.383

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.SMCI Supermicro · Information Technology

-1.65%

P25-5.37% Down61.2% Dn/Up526.6% / 15.6% Score80 DownOpp2.353

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#2 US.TRMB Trimble Inc. · Information Technology

-1.50%

P25-5.42% Down59.2% Dn/Up527% / 17.4% Score77.4 DownOpp1.967

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#3 US.CTSH Cognizant · Information Technology

-1.22%

P25-5.05% Down58.8% Dn/Up525.4% / 14.8% Score82.9 DownOpp1.677

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#4 US.IT Gartner · Information Technology

-1.19%

P25-5.14% Down59% Dn/Up525.8% / 15.8% Score79.4 DownOpp1.651

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#5 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-1.04%

P25-4.96% Down57.4% Dn/Up524.6% / 14.8% Score87 DownOpp1.332

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#6 US.ACN Accenture · Information Technology

-1.06%

P25-5.03% Down58% Dn/Up525.4% / 16.4% Score86.7 DownOpp1.323

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#7 US.CRM Salesforce · Information Technology

-0.99%

P25-5.00% Down55.6% Dn/Up525.2% / 17.8% Score57.9 DownOpp1.186

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#8 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

-0.84%

P25-4.50% Down55.2% Dn/Up522.6% / 15.8% Score60.8 DownOpp0.977

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#9 US.Q Qnity Electronics · Information Technology

-0.80%

P25-4.08% Down54.4% Dn/Up519.4% / 18% Score36.2 DownOpp0.82

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#10 US.SWKS Skyworks Solutions · Information Technology

-0.88%

P25-5.05% Down55.2% Dn/Up525.4% / 20% Score77.9 DownOpp0.774

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#11 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.72% Down56% Dn/Up59.2% / 9% Score66.4 DownOpp0.722

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#12 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.42%

P25-2.38% Down55.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 6% Score57.3 DownOpp0.641

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#13 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.42%

P25-2.37% Down55.2% Dn/Up55.4% / 6.2% Score57.1 DownOpp0.628

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#14 US.ADSK Autodesk · Information Technology

-0.56%

P25-4.97% Down55% Dn/Up524.8% / 14.6% Score93.6 DownOpp0.625

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#15 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.36%

P25-2.27% Down55.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 6.4% Score55.6 DownOpp0.575

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#16 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.30%

P25-2.27% Down55% Dn/Up56% / 5.2% Score53.6 DownOpp0.554

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#17 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.60% Down55.8% Dn/Up58.6% / 9.6% Score65.8 DownOpp0.474

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#18 US.TYL Tyler Technologies · Information Technology

-0.62%

P25-4.47% Down53.2% Dn/Up521.8% / 18.8% Score55.4 DownOpp0.45

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#19 US.APP AppLovin · Information Technology

-0.60%

P25-4.28% Down52.8% Dn/Up520.8% / 18.4% Score47.7 DownOpp0.432

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#20 US.T AT&T · Communication Services

-0.27%

P25-2.10% Down55.2% Dn/Up56.4% / 3.6% Score78.9 DownOpp0.403

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#21 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.53% Down54.8% Dn/Up58.2% / 10% Score68.3 DownOpp0.374

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#22 US.NOW ServiceNow · Information Technology

-0.45%

P25-4.67% Down52.4% Dn/Up522.8% / 17% Score57.6 DownOpp0.357

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#23 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-0.58%

P25-4.29% Down52.2% Dn/Up520.4% / 18.6% Score49.9 DownOpp0.338

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#24 US.PTC PTC Inc. · Information Technology

-0.54%

P25-4.40% Down52.6% Dn/Up521.4% / 18.8% Score55.2 DownOpp0.306

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#25 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.39%

P25-2.44% Down54.8% Dn/Up58.4% / 9.8% Score65.4 DownOpp0.305

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#26 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.27%

P25-2.37% Down54.4% Dn/Up57.4% / 7.4% Score62.5 DownOpp0.302

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#27 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.36%

P25-3.13% Down53.2% Dn/Up512.8% / 10.2% Score75.6 DownOpp0.22

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#28 US.CDW CDW Corporation · Information Technology

-0.48%

P25-4.70% Down52.6% Dn/Up523.2% / 19.8% Score61.3 DownOpp0.215

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#29 US.TEL TE Connectivity · Information Technology

-0.36%

P25-3.71% Down53% Dn/Up516.8% / 14.8% Score56.7 DownOpp0.214

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#30 US.MSFT Microsoft · Information Technology

-0.37%

P25-3.62% Down52.8% Dn/Up516% / 14.8% Score57.1 DownOpp0.183

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#31 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.23%

P25-2.44% Down53.2% Dn/Up58.4% / 7.2% Score68.8 DownOpp0.148

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#32 US.NFLX Netflix · Communication Services

-0.09%

P25-3.39% Down50.6% Dn/Up516.2% / 6.2% Score63.3 DownOpp0.139

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#33 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.23%

P25-2.30% Down53% Dn/Up55.8% / 8.8% Score52 DownOpp0.127

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#34 US.TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company · Consumer Staples

-0.28%

P25-2.49% Down51.8% Dn/Up57.8% / 7.8% Score63.1 DownOpp0.105

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#35 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.23%

P25-1.99% Down53.4% Dn/Up56.6% / 4.8% Score81.2 DownOpp0.102

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#36 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.16%

P25-2.51% Down52% Dn/Up58.2% / 6.4% Score66 DownOpp0.069

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#37 US.DIS Walt Disney Company (The) · Communication Services

-0.06%

P25-2.69% Down51% Dn/Up513% / 5.2% Score58.1 DownOpp0.065

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#38 US.ULTA Ulta Beauty · Consumer Discretionary

-0.16%

P25-1.97% Down53% Dn/Up57% / 6.8% Score57.9 DownOpp0.05

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#39 US.CBRE CBRE Group · Real Estate

-0.16%

P25-1.82% Down51.8% Dn/Up54% / 2.8% Score73.3 DownOpp0.041

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#40 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.18%

P25-2.45% Down51.8% Dn/Up57.6% / 9.2% Score49.6 DownOpp0.012

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#41 US.CEG Constellation Energy · Utilities

-0.09%

P25-1.36% Down52.2% Dn/Up53% / 1.2% Score70.3 DownOpp0.007

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.SMCI · -1.65% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking