Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=500

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-07-17
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-07-17
DOE window 2026-05-29 → 2026-07-13
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午9:25 HKT
Rows 5
Excluded uptrends 344

Downside ranking

US.SMCI · -0.80% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.80%
Top down rate55.6%
Top P25-3.94%
DOE score2.891

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.SMCI Supermicro · Information Technology

-0.80%

P25-3.94% Down55.6% Dn/Up519% / 18.8% Score39.8 DownOpp0.807
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#2 US.ADBE Adobe Inc. · Information Technology

-0.55%

P25-4.96% Down54.6% Dn/Up524.6% / 16.2% Score87.4 DownOpp0.531
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#3 US.T AT&T · Communication Services

-0.45%

P25-2.92% Down53.8% Dn/Up514.2% / 10.6% Score70.3 DownOpp0.321
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#4 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.23%

P25-2.16% Down53.2% Dn/Up57.4% / 8% Score61.8 DownOpp0.083
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#5 US.META Meta Platforms · Communication Services

-0.08%

P25-1.79% Down51.8% Dn/Up57.2% / 2.8% Score63.8 DownOpp0.025
View chart 開富途