S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.EIX · -0.98% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.98%

Top down rate64.6%

Top P25-2.39%

DOE score2.889

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.EIX Edison International · Utilities

-0.98%

P25-2.39% Down64.6% Dn/Up54.6% / 0.8% Score70.1 DownOpp2.172

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#2 US.PCG PG&E Corporation · Utilities

-0.80%

P25-2.36% Down62.8% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.4% Score67.9 DownOpp1.821

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#3 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.93%

P25-2.90% Down61.4% Dn/Up59.8% / 7.4% Score58.4 DownOpp1.685

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#4 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-2.66% Down59.4% Dn/Up57.6% / 4.4% Score57 DownOpp1.395

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#5 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.75% Down59.4% Dn/Up58% / 4.8% Score55.4 DownOpp1.356

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#6 US.DTE DTE Energy · Utilities

-0.54%

P25-2.24% Down59.4% Dn/Up52.6% / 0.6% Score66.4 DownOpp1.318

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#7 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.49% Down59% Dn/Up57% / 4.8% Score58.4 DownOpp1.217

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#8 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.51% Down58.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 4.8% Score59.5 DownOpp1.175

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#9 US.BIIB Biogen · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-2.40% Down59.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 5.2% Score56.5 DownOpp1.17

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#10 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-2.56% Down58.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.8% Score51.8 DownOpp1.166

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#11 US.AEP American Electric Power · Utilities

-0.47%

P25-2.20% Down58.2% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.4% Score65.9 DownOpp1.158

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#12 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.72% Down57.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 5% Score54.5 DownOpp1.147

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#13 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.51% Down57.8% Dn/Up58% / 4.4% Score64.3 DownOpp1.105

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#14 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.62% Down57.4% Dn/Up57.6% / 5.4% Score53.3 DownOpp1.083

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#15 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.49% Down58% Dn/Up58.4% / 5% Score64.2 DownOpp1.081

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#16 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.56% Down57% Dn/Up57.4% / 5.2% Score55.3 DownOpp1.033

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#17 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.51% Down57.4% Dn/Up57.2% / 5.8% Score58.3 DownOpp1.014

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#18 US.ECL Ecolab · Materials

-0.67%

P25-2.32% Down57.2% Dn/Up57.2% / 5.2% Score70.5 DownOpp0.985

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#19 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.39% Down58% Dn/Up56.4% / 6.6% Score60.5 DownOpp0.968

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#20 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.44% Down57.4% Dn/Up56% / 6.4% Score59.6 DownOpp0.911

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#21 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-2.93% Down57.4% Dn/Up511.4% / 11.2% Score57.7 DownOpp0.9

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#22 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.53%

P25-2.42% Down56.6% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.8% Score56.6 DownOpp0.891

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#23 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.35%

P25-2.15% Down56% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.4% Score63.5 DownOpp0.867

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#24 US.PCAR Paccar · Industrials

-0.57%

P25-2.43% Down56.4% Dn/Up59.4% / 5.2% Score71.6 DownOpp0.84

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#25 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.61% Down56% Dn/Up510.6% / 7.4% Score60.7 DownOpp0.833

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#26 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.38%

P25-2.41% Down56.6% Dn/Up57.2% / 5.4% Score53.3 DownOpp0.787

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#27 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.48%

P25-2.21% Down56.6% Dn/Up54.6% / 5% Score63.5 DownOpp0.784

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#28 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-0.30%

P25-2.13% Down55.4% Dn/Up52.2% / 0.4% Score62.4 DownOpp0.773

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#29 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-2.90% Down56.2% Dn/Up510.8% / 12.8% Score55.8 DownOpp0.715

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#30 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.36%

P25-2.27% Down56.2% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.4% Score53.3 DownOpp0.7

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#31 US.LNT Alliant Energy · Utilities

-0.28%

P25-2.18% Down55.2% Dn/Up53.6% / 0.8% Score65.8 DownOpp0.7

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#32 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.62% Down55.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 8.6% Score50 DownOpp0.686

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#33 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-0.47%

P25-2.34% Down55.4% Dn/Up54.8% / 6.4% Score58.9 DownOpp0.661

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#34 US.DOV Dover Corporation · Industrials

-0.47%

P25-2.41% Down56.4% Dn/Up59% / 6% Score75.8 DownOpp0.656

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#35 US.RL Ralph Lauren Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-2.68% Down55.4% Dn/Up511% / 8% Score65.2 DownOpp0.653

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#36 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-0.46%

P25-2.47% Down55% Dn/Up55.4% / 6.6% Score57.3 DownOpp0.652

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#37 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.53% Down56.2% Dn/Up59.4% / 7.8% Score61.8 DownOpp0.647

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#38 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.23%

P25-2.05% Down54.8% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.2% Score63 DownOpp0.642

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#39 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.45%

P25-2.53% Down55.4% Dn/Up55% / 8.2% Score54.1 DownOpp0.617

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#40 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.41%

P25-2.47% Down55.6% Dn/Up56.4% / 7.2% Score57.4 DownOpp0.613

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#41 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.60% Down55.8% Dn/Up59.6% / 9% Score59.8 DownOpp0.595

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#42 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.28% Down55.8% Dn/Up56.8% / 7.6% Score63.4 DownOpp0.582

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#43 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.47%

P25-2.26% Down55.6% Dn/Up56.8% / 7.4% Score62.3 DownOpp0.572

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#44 US.IR Ingersoll Rand · Industrials

-0.40%

P25-2.27% Down55.6% Dn/Up57.4% / 5.6% Score70.1 DownOpp0.554

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#45 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.29%

P25-2.24% Down55.2% Dn/Up57% / 5.4% Score53.2 DownOpp0.543

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#46 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-0.36%

P25-2.60% Down54.8% Dn/Up56.2% / 8.8% Score46 DownOpp0.521

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#47 US.CTAS Cintas · Industrials

-0.40%

P25-2.30% Down55.4% Dn/Up57.6% / 5.8% Score72.2 DownOpp0.517

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#48 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.64% Down54.8% Dn/Up58.6% / 10.8% Score50.9 DownOpp0.504

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#49 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.40%

P25-2.53% Down55.2% Dn/Up59.2% / 8% Score61.9 DownOpp0.504

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#50 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.40%

P25-2.53% Down55.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 9.6% Score49.3 DownOpp0.503

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.EIX · -0.98% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking