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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-06-08

Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:38 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 11

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-06-08

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-06-08
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-06-08
DOE window 2026-04-22 → 2026-06-03
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:38 HKT
Rows 11
Excluded downtrends 1
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=709 Median 0.16%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.16% OOS median · n=709

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +25.24% ann. net · n=1158

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.74% exp · 72D WF

Opp study rows 26,014 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-15

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 29 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-06-02

8 檔
  1. #1 TXN P75+6.55% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 5% Opp3.61 開富途
  2. #2 GE P75+3.69% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Opp3.575 開富途
  3. #3 JBL P75+5.17% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30% / 15% Opp3.568 開富途
  4. #4 STX P75+5.73% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 20% Opp3.541 開富途
  5. #5 EOG P75+3.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Opp3.531 開富途
  6. #6 MRNA P75+4.59% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp3.406 開富途
  7. #7 PTC P75+4.75% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Opp3.369 開富途
  8. #8 GNRC P75+3.50% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp3.279 開富途

2026-06-05

11 檔
  1. #1 BKR P75+3.63% 上漲比65% Up/Dn13.4% / 1.6% Opp3.686 開富途
  2. #2 ORCL P75+6.14% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn28.8% / 15.9% Opp3.585 開富途
  3. #3 MSFT P75+4.51% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn22.8% / 8.4% Opp3.579 開富途
  4. #4 FSLR P75+6.08% 上漲比60.9% Up/Dn28.4% / 15.6% Opp3.567 開富途
  5. #5 KLAC P75+6.09% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn30% / 14.1% Opp3.559 開富途
  6. #6 AMAT P75+5.68% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn28.4% / 14.7% Opp3.558 開富途
  7. #7 NXPI P75+5.64% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn27.8% / 12.8% Opp3.515 開富途
  8. #8 MSI P75+4.23% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn20.9% / 6.3% Opp3.428 開富途
  9. #9 CDNS P75+5.48% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.4% / 14.4% Opp3.261 開富途
  10. #10 AAPL P75+3.92% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn18.8% / 6.6% Opp3.247 開富途
  11. #11 XOM P75+3.51% 上漲比63.1% Up/Dn11.9% / 1.6% Opp3.231 開富途

2026-06-08

11 檔
  1. #1 JBL P75+5.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.8% Opp3.686 開富途
  2. #2 ADI P75+5.86% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn27.8% / 14% Opp3.67 開富途
  3. #3 MSI P75+4.51% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn22% / 7.2% Opp3.543 開富途
  4. #4 VRSN P75+4.21% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn20.6% / 6% Opp3.536 開富途
  5. #5 FLEX P75+4.54% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn23.4% / 12% Opp3.39 開富途
  6. #6 GLW P75+5.64% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.6% Opp3.343 開富途
  7. #7 LRCX P75+6.08% 上漲比59% Up/Dn29.2% / 15.4% Opp3.251 開富途
  8. #8 COHR P75+5.89% 上漲比59.4% Up/Dn29.4% / 16.2% Opp3.214 開富途
  9. #9 MRVL P75+5.68% 上漲比60.8% Up/Dn28.4% / 17.8% Opp3.211 開富途
  10. #10 HPE P75+6.07% 上漲比59.2% Up/Dn29.6% / 16% Opp3.209 開富途
  11. #11 KLAC P75+6.03% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn30.2% / 15.6% Opp3.203 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.JBL P75+5.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.8% Opp3.686 開富途
  2. #2 US.ADI P75+5.86% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn27.8% / 14% Opp3.67 開富途
  3. #3 US.MSI P75+4.51% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn22% / 7.2% Opp3.543 開富途
  4. #4 US.VRSN P75+4.21% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn20.6% / 6% Opp3.536 開富途
  5. #5 US.FLEX P75+4.54% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn23.4% / 12% Opp3.39 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.JBL Jabil · Information Technology

+1.72%

P75+5.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.8% Score77.9 Opp3.686
View chart 開富途
#2 US.ADI Analog Devices · Information Technology

+1.65%

P75+5.86% 上漲比61.4% Up/Dn27.8% / 14% Score64.4 Opp3.67
View chart 開富途
#3 US.MSI Motorola Solutions · Information Technology

+1.27%

P75+4.51% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn22% / 7.2% Score58.8 Opp3.543
View chart 開富途
#4 US.VRSN Verisign · Information Technology

+1.33%

P75+4.21% 上漲比64.4% Up/Dn20.6% / 6% Score48.2 Opp3.536
View chart 開富途
#5 US.FLEX Flex Ltd. · Information Technology

+1.52%

P75+4.54% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn23.4% / 12% Score70.2 Opp3.39
View chart 開富途
#6 US.GLW Corning Inc. · Information Technology

+1.52%

P75+5.64% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn28.2% / 14.6% Score63 Opp3.343
View chart 開富途
#7 US.LRCX Lam Research · Information Technology

+1.40%

P75+6.08% 上漲比59% Up/Dn29.2% / 15.4% Score71.3 Opp3.251
View chart 開富途
#8 US.COHR Coherent Corp. · Information Technology

+1.37%

P75+5.89% 上漲比59.4% Up/Dn29.4% / 16.2% Score78.8 Opp3.214
View chart 開富途
#9 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+1.38%

P75+5.68% 上漲比60.8% Up/Dn28.4% / 17.8% Score82 Opp3.211
View chart 開富途
#10 US.HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise · Information Technology

+1.37%

P75+6.07% 上漲比59.2% Up/Dn29.6% / 16% Score72.7 Opp3.209
View chart 開富途
#11 US.KLAC KLA Corporation · Information Technology

+1.38%

P75+6.03% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn30.2% / 15.6% Score73 Opp3.203
View chart 開富途