S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.FE · -1.13% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.13%

Top down rate66.8%

Top P25-2.38%

DOE score2.648

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-1.13%

P25-2.38% Down66.8% Dn/Up53.8% / 0.6% Score67.5 DownOpp2.527

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#2 US.PCG PG&E Corporation · Utilities

-1.07%

P25-2.42% Down64.8% Dn/Up55% / 4% Score71.8 DownOpp2.081

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#3 US.PPL PPL Corporation · Utilities

-0.83%

P25-2.36% Down63% Dn/Up53.2% / 1.2% Score66.6 DownOpp1.889

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#4 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.46% Down62.2% Dn/Up57.6% / 3% Score54.4 DownOpp1.713

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#5 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.70%

P25-2.42% Down61% Dn/Up56.2% / 3.4% Score58.5 DownOpp1.542

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#6 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.44% Down60% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.6% Score59.6 DownOpp1.427

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#7 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-2.43% Down59% Dn/Up57.4% / 4.2% Score53 DownOpp1.248

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#8 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-0.49%

P25-2.21% Down58.4% Dn/Up52.4% / 0.2% Score63.7 DownOpp1.225

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#9 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.43% Down58.2% Dn/Up55.6% / 3.2% Score58.3 DownOpp1.214

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#10 US.BMY Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.27% Down59% Dn/Up57.2% / 3.8% Score54.5 DownOpp1.211

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#11 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.62%

P25-2.26% Down59.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 5% Score62.6 DownOpp1.184

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#12 US.IDXX Idexx Laboratories · Health Care

-0.60%

P25-2.21% Down58.6% Dn/Up54.6% / 3.8% Score60.5 DownOpp1.159

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#13 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.40% Down58% Dn/Up56.4% / 3.2% Score56.3 DownOpp1.146

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#14 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

-0.64%

P25-2.24% Down59.6% Dn/Up55.2% / 6% Score65.7 DownOpp1.115

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#15 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.55%

P25-2.73% Down56.8% Dn/Up57.4% / 5.4% Score54.8 DownOpp1.041

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#16 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-2.65% Down57% Dn/Up56.8% / 7.8% Score50.5 DownOpp0.996

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#17 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.54%

P25-2.53% Down57% Dn/Up57.4% / 5.6% Score55.5 DownOpp0.98

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#18 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.59%

P25-2.62% Down56.6% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.6% Score53.4 DownOpp0.977

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#19 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.55%

P25-2.49% Down56.8% Dn/Up57.2% / 5.2% Score60.2 DownOpp0.953

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#20 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.16% Down57.6% Dn/Up54.6% / 4.4% Score60.3 DownOpp0.952

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#21 US.JNJ Johnson & Johnson · Health Care

-0.41%

P25-2.27% Down57.2% Dn/Up57% / 3.6% Score54.7 DownOpp0.927

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#22 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-2.64% Down56.6% Dn/Up56.6% / 6.2% Score53.8 DownOpp0.913

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#23 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.45% Down56.4% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.2% Score61.6 DownOpp0.861

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#24 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.35%

P25-2.31% Down57% Dn/Up57.4% / 4.2% Score50 DownOpp0.861

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#25 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-0.55%

P25-2.53% Down56.2% Dn/Up56.2% / 7.2% Score52.2 DownOpp0.855

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#26 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.21% Down57.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 5.8% Score61.8 DownOpp0.849

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#27 US.ES Eversource Energy · Utilities

-0.33%

P25-2.02% Down55.8% Dn/Up51.8% / 0.2% Score61.5 DownOpp0.826

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#28 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-0.57%

P25-2.52% Down56.4% Dn/Up57% / 7.4% Score59 DownOpp0.825

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#29 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-0.49%

P25-2.47% Down56.2% Dn/Up57.4% / 5% Score66 DownOpp0.809

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#30 US.HSIC Henry Schein · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.16% Down57.4% Dn/Up55.2% / 6% Score63.6 DownOpp0.795

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#31 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.46%

P25-2.12% Down57.6% Dn/Up54.4% / 4.4% Score72.1 DownOpp0.793

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#32 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.41% Down56.2% Dn/Up57% / 5.6% Score56.2 DownOpp0.791

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#33 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.44%

P25-2.41% Down56% Dn/Up56.8% / 5.2% Score56.8 DownOpp0.785

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#34 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.35%

P25-2.31% Down56% Dn/Up56.4% / 4.2% Score52.1 DownOpp0.765

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#35 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.12% Down57.4% Dn/Up54.2% / 5.6% Score62.6 DownOpp0.757

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#36 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.34%

P25-2.27% Down56% Dn/Up57.4% / 4.4% Score50.2 DownOpp0.747

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#37 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.45% Down55.6% Dn/Up58.4% / 4.6% Score65.7 DownOpp0.742

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#38 US.TPR Tapestry, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.49% Down55.2% Dn/Up58% / 4% Score70.5 DownOpp0.74

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#39 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.21% Down58.2% Dn/Up55.6% / 7.6% Score67.4 DownOpp0.727

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#40 US.SBUX Starbucks · Consumer Discretionary

-0.48%

P25-2.66% Down56.2% Dn/Up57.8% / 9.4% Score48.8 DownOpp0.711

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#41 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.53% Down55.6% Dn/Up56% / 8.6% Score49.6 DownOpp0.643

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#42 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.12% Down57.8% Dn/Up55.6% / 7.8% Score69.8 DownOpp0.602

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#43 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.40%

P25-2.47% Down54.6% Dn/Up58.6% / 5% Score64.9 DownOpp0.599

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#44 US.AMZN Amazon · Consumer Discretionary

-0.46%

P25-2.40% Down55.2% Dn/Up55.2% / 8.8% Score47.5 DownOpp0.592

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#45 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.21% Down57.2% Dn/Up55.8% / 8.4% Score69 DownOpp0.547

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#46 US.TMUS T-Mobile US · Communication Services

-0.29%

P25-2.18% Down54.6% Dn/Up57.4% / 4.4% Score52.7 DownOpp0.544

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#47 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.26%

P25-2.26% Down55% Dn/Up58.2% / 5.4% Score47.8 DownOpp0.543

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#48 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.72% Down54.8% Dn/Up58.2% / 11.2% Score51.8 DownOpp0.514

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#49 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.49% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.6% / 5.8% Score54.1 DownOpp0.493

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#50 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.41%

P25-2.17% Down56% Dn/Up55.4% / 7.4% Score66.3 DownOpp0.491

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.FE · -1.13% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking