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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=500 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-06-04

Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:24 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 2

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=500

As-of 2026-06-04

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-06-04
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-06-04
DOE window 2026-04-20 → 2026-06-01
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:24 HKT
Rows 2
Excluded downtrends 1
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.2–3.7

OOS n=709 Median 0.16%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.2–3.7

+0.16% OOS median · n=709

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +25.24% ann. net · n=1158

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.74% exp · 72D WF

Opp study rows 26,014 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-15

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 25 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-05-29

9 檔
  1. #1 XOM P75+4.53% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20% / 0% Opp3.69 開富途
  2. #2 GNRC P75+3.50% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Opp3.6 開富途
  3. #3 KMI P75+3.81% 上漲比65% Up/Dn20% / 0% Opp3.471 開富途
  4. #4 CIEN P75+6.68% 上漲比60% Up/Dn35% / 17.5% Opp3.43 開富途
  5. #5 J P75+5.72% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 2.5% Opp3.394 開富途
  6. #6 CSCO P75+7.19% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 17.5% Opp3.346 開富途
  7. #7 HAL P75+4.32% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Opp3.323 開富途
  8. #8 CCL P75+5.09% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 15% Opp3.278 開富途
  9. #9 COF P75+3.20% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Opp3.227 開富途

2026-06-02

8 檔
  1. #1 TXN P75+6.55% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 5% Opp3.61 開富途
  2. #2 GE P75+3.69% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Opp3.575 開富途
  3. #3 JBL P75+5.17% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30% / 15% Opp3.568 開富途
  4. #4 STX P75+5.73% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 20% Opp3.541 開富途
  5. #5 EOG P75+3.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 0% Opp3.531 開富途
  6. #6 MRNA P75+4.59% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Opp3.406 開富途
  7. #7 PTC P75+4.75% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Opp3.369 開富途
  8. #8 GNRC P75+3.50% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp3.279 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.TEL P75+4.54% 上漲比62.4% Up/Dn23.4% / 9.8% Opp3.558 開富途
  2. #2 US.MSFT P75+4.17% 上漲比62.8% Up/Dn20.2% / 7.6% Opp3.406 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.2–3.7 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.TEL TE Connectivity · Information Technology

+1.46%

P75+4.54% 上漲比62.4% Up/Dn23.4% / 9.8% Score74.6 Opp3.558
View chart 開富途
#2 US.MSFT Microsoft · Information Technology

+1.27%

P75+4.17% 上漲比62.8% Up/Dn20.2% / 7.6% Score70.1 Opp3.406
View chart 開富途