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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-06-04
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-06-04
Window 2026-04-20 → 2026-06-01
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年7月29日 下午6:24 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=500

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-04-20 → 2026-06-01 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-06-04 · computed at: 2026年7月29日 下午6:24 HKT

Median abs error2.58%
Mean abs error4.2%
Bias+0.13%
Inside P25/P7552.5%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.58%
Bias +0.13%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.7%
Bias -0.03%
P25/P75 hit 53.3%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +0.06%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.76%
Bias +0.09%
P25/P75 hit 52.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.8%
Bias +0.07%
P25/P75 hit 51.7%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.76%
Bias -0.10%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 3.12%
Bias -0.04%
P25/P75 hit 50.8%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.75%
Bias +2.06%
P25/P75 hit 52.7%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 3.72%
Bias +2.20%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=80
Median abs 3.75%
Bias +2.01%
P25/P75 hit 51.8%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.78%
Bias +2.19%
P25/P75 hit 56.3%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.87%
Bias +2.17%
P25/P75 hit 53.6%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs actual return

0 2 4 -14.00% 0.00% +26.00% US.TGT Median projection 0.32, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, actual return +7.50%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, actual return +5.99%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, actual return -4.50%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.ISRG Median projection 0.34, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.GEV Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.65%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.38%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, actual return -2.06%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, actual return -6.10%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, actual return +4.80%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, actual return -0.19%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, actual return -3.08%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, actual return -3.91%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.CNC Median projection 0.19, actual return +23.43%, runup +23.24%, drawdown -23.24%US.ELV Median projection 0.2, actual return +5.70%, runup +5.50%, drawdown -5.50%US.SNDK Median projection 1.09, actual return +2.46%, runup +1.37%, drawdown -1.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.67, actual return -7.87%, runup -8.54%, drawdown -8.54%US.ESS Median projection 0.16, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.85%, drawdown -1.85%US.CNC Median projection 0.47, actual return +7.61%, runup +7.14%, drawdown -7.14%US.EQR Median projection 0.16, actual return +0.03%, runup -0.13%, drawdown -0.13%US.AVB Median projection 0.03, actual return -0.03%, runup -0.06%, drawdown -0.06%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, actual return -0.29%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, actual return +0.52%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.78%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, actual return +1.64%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, actual return +3.88%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, actual return +6.02%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, actual return +1.63%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.94%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.PWR Median projection 0.16, actual return +5.80%, runup +5.64%, drawdown -5.64%US.STX Median projection 0.92, actual return +8.18%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.SNDK Median projection 0.86, actual return +18.79%, runup +17.93%, drawdown -17.93%US.FRT Median projection 0.3, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, actual return -0.08%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, actual return +1.65%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.2, actual return -0.87%, runup -1.07%, drawdown -1.07%US.TSN Median projection 0.37, actual return -1.18%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.J Median projection 0.2, actual return -13.27%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.29, actual return +1.06%, runup +0.77%, drawdown -0.77%US.ADM Median projection 0.34, actual return -1.93%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, actual return -7.97%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, actual return +2.60%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, actual return -1.91%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, actual return -3.29%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, actual return -0.14%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.APP Median projection 1.19, actual return -1.64%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, actual return +5.46%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -1.27%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.FTNT Median projection 1.27, actual return +3.17%, runup +1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.MNST Median projection 0.51, actual return -0.42%, runup -0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.PANW Median projection 1.3, actual return +9.58%, runup +8.28%, drawdown -8.28%US.GEN Median projection 1.27, actual return +2.69%, runup +1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, actual return -4.22%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, actual return -3.54%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, actual return -0.71%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, actual return +6.65%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +12.63%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.PM Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.43%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, actual return +0.78%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.Q Median projection 1.58, actual return -6.61%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19%US.CSCO Median projection 1.01, actual return +16.70%, runup +15.69%, drawdown -15.69%US.F Median projection 0.43, actual return -3.98%, runup -4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.67%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.GEN Median projection 1.58, actual return +4.51%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.F Median projection 0.61, actual return -9.81%, runup -10.42%, drawdown -10.42%US.WMB Median projection 0.47, actual return +2.20%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.CSCO Median projection 1.08, actual return -0.13%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.HPE Median projection 1.56, actual return -4.42%, runup -5.98%, drawdown -5.98%US.PANW Median projection 1.73, actual return +1.58%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, actual return +9.43%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.JBHT Median projection 0.27, actual return +0.26%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.XOM Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.04%, runup -1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.UNP Median projection 0.22, actual return -3.52%, runup -3.74%, drawdown -3.74%US.COST Median projection 0.53, actual return -2.42%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.D Median projection 0.49, actual return +1.08%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.ADP Median projection 0.27, actual return -1.28%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.WMB Median projection 0.17, actual return -1.17%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.KR Median projection 0.27, actual return -4.75%, runup -5.02%, drawdown -5.02%US.DXCM Median projection 0.59, actual return +7.69%, runup +7.10%, drawdown -7.10%US.COST Median projection 0.47, actual return -6.04%, runup -6.51%, drawdown -6.51%US.GEN Median projection 2.2, actual return -0.96%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, actual return +3.30%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.GS Median projection 0.27, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.DXCM Median projection 0.56, actual return +0.80%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CPRT Median projection 0.03, actual return -4.51%, runup -4.54%, drawdown -4.54%US.MET Median projection 0.27, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.IBM Median projection 0.96, actual return +0.88%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.FSLR Median projection 1.65, actual return +9.96%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.HPE Median projection 1.58, actual return +1.68%, runup +0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.DELL Median projection 1.58, actual return +7.41%, runup +5.83%, drawdown -5.83%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, actual return +2.18%, runup +0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.HPQ Median projection 1.59, actual return -0.91%, runup -2.50%, drawdown -2.50%US.JBL Median projection 2.44, actual return -4.13%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.LRCX Median projection 1.14, actual return -1.39%, runup -2.53%, drawdown -2.53%US.MU Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.39%, runup +6.81%, drawdown -6.81%US.MRVL Median projection 1.59, actual return -1.57%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.MGM Median projection 0.35, actual return +20.83%, runup +20.48%, drawdown -20.48%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, actual return +25.89%, runup +24.31%, drawdown -24.31%US.APP Median projection 1.58, actual return +8.08%, runup +6.50%, drawdown -6.50%US.STLD Median projection 0.38, actual return +1.31%, runup +0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.A Median projection 0.7, actual return -0.24%, runup -0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.FSLR Median projection 1.61, actual return +2.52%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.HRL Median projection 0.41, actual return -1.02%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.DLTR Median projection 0.63, actual return -3.19%, runup -3.82%, drawdown -3.82%US.HOOD Median projection 0.84, actual return -12.14%, runup -12.98%, drawdown -12.98%US.WDAY Median projection 1.61, actual return +0.49%, runup -1.12%, drawdown -1.12%US.PLTR Median projection 1.63, actual return -9.16%, runup -10.79%, drawdown -10.79%US.ORCL Median projection 1.08, actual return +2.02%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.FDS Median projection 0.9, actual return -5.84%, runup -6.74%, drawdown -6.74%US.ORCL Median projection 1.73, actual return -4.76%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.CDNS Median projection 1.08, actual return -0.60%, runup -1.68%, drawdown -1.68%US.MGM Median projection 0.81, actual return -5.43%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24% Bucket avg Median projection 0.8, actual return +0.90%, n 116Bucket avg Median projection 2.2, actual return +1.91%, n 4 Corr +0.15 R² 2.3% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.93%

Best setting 3D · n=500: median projection vs forecast error

0 2 4 -14.00% 0.00% +26.00% US.TGT Median projection 0.32, forecast error -0.33%, runup -0.33%, drawdown -0.33%US.JBL Median projection 0.87, forecast error +1.63%, runup +1.63%, drawdown -1.63%US.STLD Median projection 0.54, forecast error +6.96%, runup +6.96%, drawdown -6.96%US.ADI Median projection 0.73, forecast error +5.26%, runup +5.26%, drawdown -5.26%US.NTAP Median projection 0.7, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.HPQ Median projection 0.95, forecast error -7.11%, runup -7.11%, drawdown -7.11%US.STLD Median projection 0.7, forecast error +2.29%, runup +2.29%, drawdown -2.29%US.NTRS Median projection 0.95, forecast error -5.45%, runup -5.45%, drawdown -5.45%US.STLD Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.ISRG Median projection 0.34, forecast error -2.95%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.GEV Median projection 0.56, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.MAS Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.18%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CSX Median projection 0.37, forecast error -2.43%, runup -2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.DOV Median projection 0.23, forecast error -1.99%, runup -1.99%, drawdown -1.99%US.WST Median projection 0.22, forecast error -5.89%, runup -5.89%, drawdown -5.89%US.TXN Median projection 0.6, forecast error -6.70%, runup -6.70%, drawdown -6.70%US.QCOM Median projection 0.81, forecast error +3.99%, runup +3.99%, drawdown -3.99%US.BKR Median projection 0.59, forecast error -0.78%, runup -0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.AMD Median projection 1.15, forecast error -4.23%, runup -4.23%, drawdown -4.23%US.SNPS Median projection 1.06, forecast error -4.97%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.CNC Median projection 0.19, forecast error +23.24%, runup +23.24%, drawdown -23.24%US.ELV Median projection 0.2, forecast error +5.50%, runup +5.50%, drawdown -5.50%US.SNDK Median projection 1.09, forecast error +1.37%, runup +1.37%, drawdown -1.37%US.NVDA Median projection 0.67, forecast error -8.54%, runup -8.54%, drawdown -8.54%US.ESS Median projection 0.16, forecast error -1.85%, runup -1.85%, drawdown -1.85%US.CNC Median projection 0.47, forecast error +7.14%, runup +7.14%, drawdown -7.14%US.EQR Median projection 0.16, forecast error -0.13%, runup -0.13%, drawdown -0.13%US.AVB Median projection 0.03, forecast error -0.06%, runup -0.06%, drawdown -0.06%US.EQR Median projection 0.12, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.NXPI Median projection 0.78, forecast error -0.26%, runup -0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.CNC Median projection 0.44, forecast error -1.22%, runup -1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.GNRC Median projection 0.34, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.QCOM Median projection 0.46, forecast error +3.42%, runup +3.42%, drawdown -3.42%US.PWR Median projection 0.09, forecast error +5.93%, runup +5.93%, drawdown -5.93%US.CAT Median projection 0.09, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.GOOGL Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.PWR Median projection 0.16, forecast error +5.64%, runup +5.64%, drawdown -5.64%US.STX Median projection 0.92, forecast error +7.26%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.SNDK Median projection 0.86, forecast error +17.93%, runup +17.93%, drawdown -17.93%US.FRT Median projection 0.3, forecast error +0.96%, runup +0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.CBOE Median projection 0.56, forecast error -0.64%, runup -0.64%, drawdown -0.64%US.ADM Median projection 0.44, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.PWR Median projection 0.2, forecast error -1.07%, runup -1.07%, drawdown -1.07%US.TSN Median projection 0.37, forecast error -1.55%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.J Median projection 0.2, forecast error -13.47%, runup -13.47%, drawdown -13.47%US.DD Median projection 0.29, forecast error +0.77%, runup +0.77%, drawdown -0.77%US.ADM Median projection 0.34, forecast error -2.27%, runup -2.27%, drawdown -2.27%US.SWKS Median projection 0.94, forecast error -8.91%, runup -8.91%, drawdown -8.91%US.DVA Median projection 0.36, forecast error +2.24%, runup +2.24%, drawdown -2.24%US.JBL Median projection 0.71, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.SMCI Median projection 1.09, forecast error -4.38%, runup -4.38%, drawdown -4.38%US.RVTY Median projection 0.36, forecast error -0.50%, runup -0.50%, drawdown -0.50%US.APP Median projection 1.19, forecast error -2.83%, runup -2.83%, drawdown -2.83%US.HWM Median projection 0.26, forecast error -1.28%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.FTNT Median projection 1.15, forecast error +4.31%, runup +4.31%, drawdown -4.31%US.VTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -1.59%, runup -1.59%, drawdown -1.59%US.FTNT Median projection 1.27, forecast error +1.90%, runup +1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.MNST Median projection 0.51, forecast error -0.93%, runup -0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.PANW Median projection 1.3, forecast error +8.28%, runup +8.28%, drawdown -8.28%US.GEN Median projection 1.27, forecast error +1.42%, runup +1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.FOX Median projection 0.56, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.FOXA Median projection 0.53, forecast error -4.07%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.FSLR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.COHR Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.07%, runup +5.07%, drawdown -5.07%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +11.05%, runup +11.05%, drawdown -11.05%US.PM Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.94%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.CVS Median projection 0.46, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.Q Median projection 1.58, forecast error -8.19%, runup -8.19%, drawdown -8.19%US.CSCO Median projection 1.01, forecast error +15.69%, runup +15.69%, drawdown -15.69%US.F Median projection 0.43, forecast error -4.41%, runup -4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.PANW Median projection 1.58, forecast error +7.09%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.GEN Median projection 1.58, forecast error +2.93%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.F Median projection 0.61, forecast error -10.42%, runup -10.42%, drawdown -10.42%US.WMB Median projection 0.47, forecast error +1.73%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.CSCO Median projection 1.08, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.HPE Median projection 1.56, forecast error -5.98%, runup -5.98%, drawdown -5.98%US.PANW Median projection 1.73, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, forecast error +7.26%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.JBHT Median projection 0.27, forecast error -0.01%, runup -0.01%, drawdown -0.01%US.XOM Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.45%, runup -1.45%, drawdown -1.45%US.UNP Median projection 0.22, forecast error -3.74%, runup -3.74%, drawdown -3.74%US.COST Median projection 0.53, forecast error -2.95%, runup -2.95%, drawdown -2.95%US.D Median projection 0.49, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.ADP Median projection 0.27, forecast error -1.55%, runup -1.55%, drawdown -1.55%US.WMB Median projection 0.17, forecast error -1.34%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.KR Median projection 0.27, forecast error -5.02%, runup -5.02%, drawdown -5.02%US.DXCM Median projection 0.59, forecast error +7.10%, runup +7.10%, drawdown -7.10%US.COST Median projection 0.47, forecast error -6.51%, runup -6.51%, drawdown -6.51%US.GEN Median projection 2.2, forecast error -3.16%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.CRWD Median projection 2.17, forecast error +1.13%, runup +1.13%, drawdown -1.13%US.GS Median projection 0.27, forecast error +0.99%, runup +0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.DXCM Median projection 0.56, forecast error +0.24%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CPRT Median projection 0.03, forecast error -4.54%, runup -4.54%, drawdown -4.54%US.MET Median projection 0.27, forecast error -1.57%, runup -1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.IBM Median projection 0.96, forecast error -0.08%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.FSLR Median projection 1.65, forecast error +8.31%, runup +8.31%, drawdown -8.31%US.HPE Median projection 1.58, forecast error +0.10%, runup +0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.DELL Median projection 1.58, forecast error +5.83%, runup +5.83%, drawdown -5.83%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +0.60%, runup +0.60%, drawdown -0.60%US.HPQ Median projection 1.59, forecast error -2.50%, runup -2.50%, drawdown -2.50%US.JBL Median projection 2.44, forecast error -6.57%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.LRCX Median projection 1.14, forecast error -2.53%, runup -2.53%, drawdown -2.53%US.MU Median projection 1.58, forecast error +6.81%, runup +6.81%, drawdown -6.81%US.MRVL Median projection 1.59, forecast error -3.16%, runup -3.16%, drawdown -3.16%US.MGM Median projection 0.35, forecast error +20.48%, runup +20.48%, drawdown -20.48%US.NTAP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +24.31%, runup +24.31%, drawdown -24.31%US.APP Median projection 1.58, forecast error +6.50%, runup +6.50%, drawdown -6.50%US.STLD Median projection 0.38, forecast error +0.93%, runup +0.93%, drawdown -0.93%US.A Median projection 0.7, forecast error -0.94%, runup -0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.FSLR Median projection 1.61, forecast error +0.91%, runup +0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.HRL Median projection 0.41, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.DLTR Median projection 0.63, forecast error -3.82%, runup -3.82%, drawdown -3.82%US.HOOD Median projection 0.84, forecast error -12.98%, runup -12.98%, drawdown -12.98%US.WDAY Median projection 1.61, forecast error -1.12%, runup -1.12%, drawdown -1.12%US.PLTR Median projection 1.63, forecast error -10.79%, runup -10.79%, drawdown -10.79%US.ORCL Median projection 1.08, forecast error +0.94%, runup +0.94%, drawdown -0.94%US.FDS Median projection 0.9, forecast error -6.74%, runup -6.74%, drawdown -6.74%US.ORCL Median projection 1.73, forecast error -6.49%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.CDNS Median projection 1.08, forecast error -1.68%, runup -1.68%, drawdown -1.68%US.MGM Median projection 0.81, forecast error -6.24%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24% Bucket avg Median projection 0.8, forecast error +0.15%, n 116Bucket avg Median projection 2.2, forecast error -0.34%, n 4 Corr +0.06 R² 0.4% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.13%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 500 2.58% 4.2% +0.13% 52.5% 120 2.648
#2 3D 120 2.7% 4.21% -0.03% 53.3% 120 2.695
#3 3D 160 2.71% 4.17% +0.06% 50% 120 2.698
#4 3D 320 2.76% 4.18% +0.09% 52.5% 120 2.725
#5 3D 240 2.8% 4.16% +0.07% 51.7% 120 2.737
#6 3D 80 2.76% 4.27% -0.10% 50.8% 120 2.762
#7 3D 40 3.12% 4.27% -0.04% 50.8% 120 2.933
#8 5D 120 3.75% 6.39% +2.06% 52.7% 112 4.289
#9 5D 40 3.72% 6.41% +2.20% 50% 112 4.309
#10 5D 80 3.75% 6.49% +2.01% 51.8% 112 4.318
#11 5D 240 3.78% 6.45% +2.19% 56.3% 112 4.335
#12 5D 160 3.87% 6.43% +2.17% 53.6% 112 4.377
#13 5D 320 3.93% 6.57% +2.35% 55.4% 112 4.479
#14 5D 500 3.85% 6.63% +2.48% 52.7% 112 4.486
#15 10D 160 5.8% 8.01% +1.75% 47.8% 92 5.847
#16 10D 80 5.84% 7.97% +1.72% 44.6% 92 5.856
#17 10D 120 5.88% 7.96% +1.72% 46.7% 92 5.867
#18 10D 240 5.78% 8.06% +2.05% 47.8% 92 5.899
#19 10D 320 5.67% 8.13% +2.41% 47.8% 92 5.923
#20 10D 40 6.19% 7.93% +1.87% 43.5% 92 6.042
#21 10D 500 6.07% 8.29% +2.90% 43.5% 92 6.263
#22 15D 80 5.96% 8.53% +2.91% 51.4% 72 6.273
#23 15D 40 6.49% 8.32% +2.24% 51.4% 72 6.365
#24 15D 160 6.51% 9% +4.37% 56.9% 72 6.918
#25 15D 120 6.84% 8.78% +3.92% 55.6% 72 6.942
#26 15D 240 6.31% 9.26% +4.91% 51.4% 72 7.004
#27 15D 320 6.17% 9.51% +5.33% 51.4% 72 7.084
#28 15D 500 6.07% 9.83% +5.91% 52.8% 72 7.23
#29 20D 80 5.74% 11.03% +5.40% 67.3% 52 7.372
#30 20D 40 7.57% 10.54% +3.30% 65.4% 52 7.806