S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.ROL · -1.91% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.91%

Top down rate75%

Top P25-3.71%

DOE score2.448

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-1.91%

P25-3.71% Down75% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score59.6 DownOpp4.241

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#2 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-1.81%

P25-3.64% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score51.6 DownOpp4.183

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#3 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-1.37%

P25-3.16% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score59.7 DownOpp3.162

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#4 US.EXC Exelon · Utilities

-1.24%

P25-2.59% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score73.9 DownOpp2.933

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#5 US.AWK American Water Works · Utilities

-1.47%

P25-2.24% Down67.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score69.8 DownOpp2.907

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#6 US.PEG Public Service Enterprise Group · Utilities

-1.39%

P25-2.08% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score71.4 DownOpp2.825

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#7 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-1.37%

P25-2.06% Down70% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score68.8 DownOpp2.819

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#8 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-1.42%

P25-3.54% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score53.6 DownOpp2.803

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#9 US.XEL Xcel Energy · Utilities

-1.25%

P25-2.42% Down67.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score68 DownOpp2.595

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#10 US.ES Eversource Energy · Utilities

-1.30%

P25-2.30% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score65.5 DownOpp2.384

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#11 US.CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

-1.02%

P25-2.71% Down65% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score47.5 DownOpp2.241

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#12 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-1.02%

P25-2.53% Down65% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score70.2 DownOpp2.176

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#13 US.USB U.S. Bancorp · Financials

-1.05%

P25-2.39% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score76.1 DownOpp2.127

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#14 US.AEE Ameren · Utilities

-1.06%

P25-2.11% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score67.4 DownOpp2.082

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#15 US.FE FirstEnergy · Utilities

-1.19%

P25-2.15% Down60% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score67.6 DownOpp2.02

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#16 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.63%

P25-2.34% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score54.3 DownOpp2.008

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#17 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.62%

P25-5.05% Down57.5% Dn/Up525% / 2.5% Score45.3 DownOpp1.993

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#18 US.GE GE Aerospace · Industrials

-0.95%

P25-2.89% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score98.1 DownOpp1.987

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#19 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

-1.13%

P25-2.30% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score67 DownOpp1.953

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#20 US.BAC Bank of America · Financials

-0.64%

P25-1.65% Down65% Dn/Up50% / 2.5% Score74.9 DownOpp1.541

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#21 US.ATO Atmos Energy · Utilities

-0.48%

P25-2.08% Down62.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score61.8 DownOpp1.537

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#22 US.CTAS Cintas · Industrials

-0.82%

P25-2.32% Down60% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score72.2 DownOpp1.509

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#23 US.ED Consolidated Edison · Utilities

-0.60%

P25-2.36% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score64.7 DownOpp1.505

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#24 US.PYPL PayPal · Financials

-0.43%

P25-2.06% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score63.6 DownOpp1.468

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#25 US.MLM Martin Marietta Materials · Materials

-0.97%

P25-2.42% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 10% Score81.3 DownOpp1.365

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#26 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-1.04%

P25-2.18% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 10% Score86 DownOpp1.34

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#27 US.PODD Insulet Corporation · Health Care

-0.80%

P25-3.35% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score55.1 DownOpp1.324

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#28 US.DE Deere & Company · Industrials

-0.83%

P25-2.35% Down57.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score59.4 DownOpp1.272

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#29 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.59%

P25-1.61% Down60% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score59.2 DownOpp1.199

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#30 US.MCO Moody's Corporation · Financials

-0.42%

P25-2.17% Down60% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score77.9 DownOpp1.178

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#31 US.PH Parker Hannifin · Industrials

-0.92%

P25-2.14% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score51.2 DownOpp1.171

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#32 US.UNH UnitedHealth Group · Health Care

-0.55%

P25-2.51% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score61.2 DownOpp1.168

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#33 US.GD General Dynamics · Industrials

-0.70%

P25-2.53% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 10% Score76.4 DownOpp1.16

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#34 US.HSIC Henry Schein · Health Care

-0.67%

P25-1.73% Down65% Dn/Up50% / 10% Score73.2 DownOpp1.154

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#35 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-1.76% Down60% Dn/Up55% / 7.5% Score60.3 DownOpp1.128

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#36 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-1.18%

P25-2.41% Down57.5% Dn/Up510% / 12.5% Score71 DownOpp1.1

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#37 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-1.04%

P25-2.39% Down52.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score63.8 DownOpp1.059

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#38 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-0.66%

P25-2.35% Down62.5% Dn/Up515% / 10% Score78.9 DownOpp1.056

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#39 US.AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · Financials

-0.74%

P25-1.88% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score57.6 DownOpp1.028

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#40 US.CHD Church & Dwight · Consumer Staples

-0.20%

P25-1.45% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score72.9 DownOpp1.016

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#41 US.PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation · Communication Services

-0.52%

P25-2.11% Down57.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score64.4 DownOpp1.015

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#42 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.49% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score62.9 DownOpp0.981

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#43 US.LNT Alliant Energy · Utilities

-0.49%

P25-2.15% Down55% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score61.1 DownOpp0.969

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#44 US.BALL Ball Corporation · Materials

-0.57%

P25-2.10% Down57.5% Dn/Up50% / 5% Score57 DownOpp0.967

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#45 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.05%

P25-2.55% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 12.5% Score68.3 DownOpp0.825

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#46 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.37%

P25-2.66% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score68.9 DownOpp0.818

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#47 US.ABT Abbott Laboratories · Health Care

-0.73%

P25-1.57% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 7.5% Score60.7 DownOpp0.817

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#48 US.BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway · Financials

-0.43%

P25-1.34% Down55% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score60 DownOpp0.715

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#49 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-0.41%

P25-2.16% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 5% Score71.5 DownOpp0.714

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#50 US.BXP BXP, Inc. · Real Estate

-0.22%

P25-1.52% Down57.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score68.5 DownOpp0.686

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=40

US.ROL · -1.91% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking