S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.WSM · -0.83% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.83%

Top down rate58%

Top P25-3.19%

DOE score2.809

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.83%

P25-3.19% Down58% Dn/Up511.6% / 7.8% Score56.5 DownOpp1.376

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#2 US.GPC Genuine Parts Company · Consumer Discretionary

-0.79%

P25-3.04% Down59.2% Dn/Up511% / 9.2% Score50.8 DownOpp1.353

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#3 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.78%

P25-3.02% Down58.4% Dn/Up510% / 8.8% Score52.4 DownOpp1.286

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#4 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-3.50% Down57.4% Dn/Up512.4% / 10.8% Score44.7 DownOpp1.204

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#5 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.74%

P25-3.03% Down57.6% Dn/Up511% / 9.2% Score54.8 DownOpp1.143

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#6 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-3.10% Down56.8% Dn/Up510.2% / 8.8% Score50.7 DownOpp1.131

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#7 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-2.97% Down57.6% Dn/Up59.8% / 9.2% Score54.6 DownOpp1.109

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#8 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.64%

P25-3.40% Down57.2% Dn/Up512.2% / 10.8% Score44.7 DownOpp1.083

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#9 US.BSX Boston Scientific · Health Care

-0.59%

P25-2.22% Down58.8% Dn/Up54.6% / 4.8% Score64 DownOpp1.081

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#10 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-2.88% Down57.4% Dn/Up510.6% / 9% Score49.8 DownOpp1.049

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#11 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.34% Down58.4% Dn/Up55.8% / 5.2% Score64.9 DownOpp1.038

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#12 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.13% Down57.2% Dn/Up55.4% / 2.8% Score55.4 DownOpp1.035

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#13 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-3.11% Down56.8% Dn/Up510.8% / 9.6% Score47 DownOpp1.023

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#14 US.APTV Aptiv · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-3.21% Down56.4% Dn/Up512% / 9.2% Score45.9 DownOpp0.918

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#15 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.53%

P25-3.03% Down56.8% Dn/Up511.2% / 9.6% Score48 DownOpp0.896

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#16 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.14% Down56.8% Dn/Up56.4% / 6.2% Score56.8 DownOpp0.891

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#17 US.DASH DoorDash · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-2.93% Down56.4% Dn/Up512% / 9.4% Score57.2 DownOpp0.881

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#18 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.18% Down56.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 3.8% Score59.2 DownOpp0.881

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#19 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-0.52%

P25-3.11% Down56.2% Dn/Up511% / 9.8% Score48.1 DownOpp0.845

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#20 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.43%

P25-2.17% Down56.4% Dn/Up56.2% / 3.8% Score55.2 DownOpp0.842

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#21 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.61%

P25-2.93% Down56% Dn/Up512.2% / 9% Score59.3 DownOpp0.838

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#22 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-3.10% Down56% Dn/Up511.4% / 10% Score45.9 DownOpp0.821

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#23 US.MRK Merck & Co. · Health Care

-0.42%

P25-2.19% Down56.2% Dn/Up55.6% / 3.4% Score58.7 DownOpp0.819

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#24 US.HAS Hasbro · Consumer Discretionary

-0.60%

P25-2.35% Down55.8% Dn/Up56.8% / 7.2% Score56.2 DownOpp0.798

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#25 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.41%

P25-2.13% Down56% Dn/Up56% / 3.6% Score56.6 DownOpp0.782

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#26 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.50%

P25-3.20% Down56% Dn/Up511.6% / 11.2% Score43.8 DownOpp0.78

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#27 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.51%

P25-2.50% Down55.8% Dn/Up55.4% / 7.4% Score51.7 DownOpp0.767

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#28 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.56%

P25-2.32% Down55.4% Dn/Up56.8% / 7.2% Score56.9 DownOpp0.713

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#29 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.46%

P25-2.29% Down55% Dn/Up57.2% / 6.2% Score52.8 DownOpp0.665

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#30 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.50% Down54.8% Dn/Up56.2% / 6.8% Score51.8 DownOpp0.662

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#31 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.31%

P25-1.99% Down55.4% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.4% Score52.8 DownOpp0.64

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#32 US.LOW Lowe's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.41%

P25-2.69% Down54% Dn/Up56.6% / 7.4% Score48.5 DownOpp0.595

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#33 US.RL Ralph Lauren Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.53%

P25-2.18% Down55% Dn/Up55.6% / 7.4% Score58.5 DownOpp0.592

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#34 US.LULU Lululemon Athletica · Consumer Discretionary

-0.43%

P25-2.66% Down53.8% Dn/Up56% / 8.4% Score47.4 DownOpp0.539

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#35 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.38%

P25-2.76% Down53.6% Dn/Up57.6% / 8.2% Score46.3 DownOpp0.519

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#36 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.29%

P25-1.97% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.2% / 3.4% Score53 DownOpp0.485

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#37 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.31%

P25-1.94% Down54% Dn/Up54.4% / 3.4% Score59.9 DownOpp0.462

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#38 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.46%

P25-2.21% Down54% Dn/Up57.4% / 7.2% Score59.8 DownOpp0.452

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#39 US.HLT Hilton Worldwide · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.21% Down53.6% Dn/Up57.4% / 7.2% Score59.5 DownOpp0.412

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#40 US.TT Trane Technologies · Industrials

-0.33%

P25-2.05% Down53.8% Dn/Up54.6% / 5.6% Score54.5 DownOpp0.402

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#41 US.ABNB Airbnb · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.50% Down53.6% Dn/Up56.4% / 7.6% Score50 DownOpp0.402

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#42 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.40%

P25-3.14% Down54% Dn/Up512% / 13% Score43.2 DownOpp0.401

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#43 US.AES AES Corporation · Utilities

-0.36%

P25-2.10% Down55.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 5.4% Score85.2 DownOpp0.37

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#44 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.32%

P25-2.29% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.6% / 7.8% Score51.1 DownOpp0.345

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#45 US.DRI Darden Restaurants · Consumer Discretionary

-0.30%

P25-2.30% Down53.6% Dn/Up56.2% / 8% Score52.3 DownOpp0.291

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#46 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.36%

P25-2.10% Down55% Dn/Up55.8% / 8.4% Score69.2 DownOpp0.262

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#47 US.CAH Cardinal Health · Health Care

-0.34%

P25-2.16% Down54.6% Dn/Up56% / 8.4% Score67.6 DownOpp0.237

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#48 US.NDSN Nordson Corporation · Industrials

-0.32%

P25-2.00% Down52.8% Dn/Up54.6% / 6.8% Score53.9 DownOpp0.232

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#49 US.MTD Mettler Toledo · Health Care

-0.24%

P25-2.26% Down54.2% Dn/Up56.4% / 8.6% Score53.6 DownOpp0.223

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#50 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.25%

P25-2.26% Down53.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 8.4% Score51.2 DownOpp0.199

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=500

US.WSM · -0.83% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking