S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.VRTX · -1.00% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.00%

Top down rate71.7%

Top P25-2.53%

DOE score2.82

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-1.00%

P25-2.53% Down71.7% Dn/Up56.7% / 0.8% Score53.3 DownOpp2.921

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#2 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.58%

P25-4.32% Down65% Dn/Up520% / 11.7% Score47.3 DownOpp2.803

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#3 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

-1.08%

P25-2.97% Down65.8% Dn/Up59.2% / 2.5% Score54.1 DownOpp2.531

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#4 US.HII Huntington Ingalls Industries · Industrials

-1.14%

P25-2.97% Down64.2% Dn/Up510% / 3.3% Score45.3 DownOpp2.481

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#5 US.IR Ingersoll Rand · Industrials

-1.18%

P25-2.98% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score43.7 DownOpp2.399

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#6 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-1.42%

P25-3.40% Down60.8% Dn/Up514.2% / 7.5% Score44.4 DownOpp2.351

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#7 US.ES Eversource Energy · Utilities

-1.12%

P25-2.10% Down68.3% Dn/Up55% / 4.2% Score76.7 DownOpp2.282

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#8 US.LHX L3Harris · Industrials

-1.20%

P25-3.20% Down60.8% Dn/Up511.7% / 3.3% Score53.1 DownOpp2.268

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#9 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.95%

P25-2.75% Down65.8% Dn/Up56.7% / 4.2% Score56.7 DownOpp2.224

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#10 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-1.01%

P25-3.17% Down64.2% Dn/Up510.8% / 5% Score57 DownOpp2.211

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#11 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-1.05%

P25-2.95% Down61.7% Dn/Up58.3% / 3.3% Score43.4 DownOpp2.2

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#12 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-1.14%

P25-2.75% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 5% Score57.3 DownOpp2.162

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#13 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-1.11%

P25-2.86% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 4.2% Score56.6 DownOpp2.149

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#14 US.FDS FactSet · Financials

-1.04%

P25-3.86% Down61.7% Dn/Up517.5% / 6.7% Score60.1 DownOpp2.088

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#15 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

-0.72%

P25-2.98% Down63.3% Dn/Up58.3% / 1.7% Score45.3 DownOpp2.087

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#16 US.TXT Textron · Industrials

-1.08%

P25-3.94% Down65% Dn/Up515.8% / 8.3% Score101.9 DownOpp2.003

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#17 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-1.15%

P25-2.79% Down60.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score57.3 DownOpp1.982

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#18 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-1.08%

P25-2.90% Down59.2% Dn/Up59.2% / 2.5% Score59.2 DownOpp1.947

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#19 US.EMR Emerson Electric · Industrials

-0.90%

P25-2.98% Down64.2% Dn/Up58.3% / 7.5% Score55.6 DownOpp1.914

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#20 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.82%

P25-2.69% Down64.2% Dn/Up58.3% / 5% Score58.2 DownOpp1.892

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#21 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-0.79%

P25-2.58% Down61.7% Dn/Up58.3% / 1.7% Score52.1 DownOpp1.878

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#22 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.78%

P25-2.89% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 4.2% Score51.3 DownOpp1.866

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#23 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.92%

P25-3.11% Down60% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score44.5 DownOpp1.864

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#24 US.CRL Charles River Laboratories · Health Care

-0.88%

P25-3.08% Down59.2% Dn/Up56.7% / 3.3% Score47.6 DownOpp1.831

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#25 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.79%

P25-2.84% Down62.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 5% Score50.7 DownOpp1.82

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#26 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-0.82%

P25-2.86% Down62.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 5% Score58.3 DownOpp1.798

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#27 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.77%

P25-3.51% Down60% Dn/Up514.2% / 5% Score47.3 DownOpp1.793

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#28 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.83%

P25-3.39% Down59.2% Dn/Up512.5% / 5.8% Score50.1 DownOpp1.69

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#29 US.ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities · Real Estate

-0.64%

P25-2.85% Down60% Dn/Up56.7% / 2.5% Score42.1 DownOpp1.687

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#30 US.TKO TKO Group Holdings · Communication Services

-0.66%

P25-2.21% Down63.3% Dn/Up51.7% / 4.2% Score49.8 DownOpp1.651

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#31 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-0.88%

P25-3.14% Down60% Dn/Up510.8% / 7.5% Score54 DownOpp1.61

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#32 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-0.91%

P25-2.48% Down57.5% Dn/Up55.8% / 4.2% Score52.1 DownOpp1.487

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#33 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.48%

P25-2.91% Down60% Dn/Up56.7% / 3.3% Score47.5 DownOpp1.453

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#34 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.43% Down60.8% Dn/Up53.3% / 5.8% Score56.2 DownOpp1.442

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#35 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-3.64% Down56.7% Dn/Up511.7% / 7.5% Score50.1 DownOpp1.43

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#36 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.55% Down59.2% Dn/Up55% / 0.8% Score53.4 DownOpp1.425

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#37 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.63%

P25-2.49% Down60% Dn/Up56.7% / 3.3% Score57.5 DownOpp1.423

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#38 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-3.35% Down60.8% Dn/Up510.8% / 9.2% Score55.1 DownOpp1.416

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#39 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-0.58%

P25-2.83% Down60.8% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score58.2 DownOpp1.415

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#40 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-0.66%

P25-4.86% Down59.2% Dn/Up524.2% / 13.3% Score63.9 DownOpp1.334

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#41 US.ERIE Erie Indemnity · Financials

-0.62%

P25-3.75% Down56.7% Dn/Up512.5% / 6.7% Score48.1 DownOpp1.331

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#42 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.57%

P25-2.60% Down58.3% Dn/Up56.7% / 1.7% Score62.9 DownOpp1.31

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#43 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.47% Down58.3% Dn/Up54.2% / 2.5% Score54.5 DownOpp1.303

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#44 US.DAL Delta Air Lines · Industrials

-0.76%

P25-3.01% Down57.5% Dn/Up58.3% / 7.5% Score50.8 DownOpp1.281

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#45 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.86% Down57.5% Dn/Up56.7% / 2.5% Score62.3 DownOpp1.278

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#46 US.XYZ Block, Inc. · Financials

-0.74%

P25-3.94% Down57.5% Dn/Up519.2% / 9.2% Score66.7 DownOpp1.273

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#47 US.VEEV Veeva Systems · Health Care

-0.45%

P25-3.04% Down60% Dn/Up58.3% / 6.7% Score50.2 DownOpp1.231

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#48 US.RSG Republic Services · Industrials

-0.71%

P25-2.43% Down58.3% Dn/Up55% / 5.8% Score54.8 DownOpp1.222

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#49 US.BBY Best Buy · Consumer Discretionary

-0.63%

P25-2.99% Down55% Dn/Up57.5% / 4.2% Score48.4 DownOpp1.162

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#50 US.UHS Universal Health Services · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-3.07% Down58.3% Dn/Up55% / 6.7% Score54.1 DownOpp1.124

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=120

US.VRTX · -1.00% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking