S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.MOS · -1.88% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.88%

Top down rate71.7%

Top P25-5.07%

DOE score2.821

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.88%

P25-5.07% Down71.7% Dn/Up525.8% / 3.3% Score39.1 DownOpp4.392

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#2 US.MPC Marathon Petroleum · Energy

-1.70%

P25-3.75% Down71.7% Dn/Up514.2% / 7.5% Score47.9 DownOpp3.564

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#3 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-1.29%

P25-2.98% Down72.5% Dn/Up54.2% / 0% Score57.9 DownOpp3.401

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#4 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-1.95%

P25-3.58% Down65% Dn/Up515.8% / 7.5% Score42.2 DownOpp3.278

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#5 US.MKC McCormick & Company · Consumer Staples

-1.72%

P25-3.16% Down64.2% Dn/Up510.8% / 7.5% Score55.3 DownOpp2.781

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#6 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-1.37%

P25-4.08% Down65% Dn/Up516.7% / 9.2% Score47 DownOpp2.686

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#7 US.VRSK Verisk Analytics · Industrials

-1.27%

P25-3.06% Down63.3% Dn/Up510% / 1.7% Score51.9 DownOpp2.608

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#8 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-1.37%

P25-2.94% Down66.7% Dn/Up511.7% / 6.7% Score64.9 DownOpp2.552

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#9 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-1.26%

P25-2.78% Down65% Dn/Up56.7% / 2.5% Score71.4 DownOpp2.47

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#10 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-1.14%

P25-2.81% Down64.2% Dn/Up54.2% / 1.7% Score58.2 DownOpp2.44

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#11 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-1.12%

P25-3.93% Down63.3% Dn/Up516.7% / 5% Score59.7 DownOpp2.419

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#12 US.SW Smurfit Westrock · Materials

-1.82%

P25-4.34% Down60% Dn/Up521.7% / 15% Score52.7 DownOpp2.41

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#13 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-1.54%

P25-3.07% Down61.7% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score54.7 DownOpp2.383

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#14 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.71%

P25-2.59% Down66.7% Dn/Up53.3% / 0% Score54.7 DownOpp2.283

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#15 US.MNST Monster Beverage · Consumer Staples

-0.88%

P25-3.13% Down65.8% Dn/Up55.8% / 1.7% Score80.4 DownOpp2.222

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#16 US.APP AppLovin · Information Technology

-1.00%

P25-5.16% Down58.3% Dn/Up526.7% / 5% Score63.4 DownOpp2.179

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#17 US.UHS Universal Health Services · Health Care

-0.94%

P25-2.82% Down64.2% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score61.1 DownOpp2.173

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#18 US.MMM 3M · Industrials

-1.11%

P25-2.60% Down61.7% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score54.4 DownOpp2.138

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#19 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.98%

P25-2.11% Down63.3% Dn/Up56.7% / 1.7% Score45.2 DownOpp2.13

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#20 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-1.06%

P25-2.98% Down60.8% Dn/Up56.7% / 2.5% Score58.7 DownOpp2.079

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#21 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.57% Down64.2% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.7% Score53.5 DownOpp2.065

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#22 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.73%

P25-2.42% Down65.8% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score52.7 DownOpp2.054

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#23 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.98%

P25-3.41% Down60.8% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score45.9 DownOpp2.052

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#24 US.CL Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples

-0.77%

P25-2.75% Down63.3% Dn/Up54.2% / 1.7% Score54.2 DownOpp2.013

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#25 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-1.14%

P25-2.94% Down60.8% Dn/Up510% / 5.8% Score58.6 DownOpp1.952

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#26 US.KVUE Kenvue · Consumer Staples

-0.82%

P25-2.94% Down65% Dn/Up56.7% / 5% Score68 DownOpp1.945

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#27 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.99%

P25-3.88% Down57.5% Dn/Up515.8% / 5% Score46 DownOpp1.915

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#28 US.PEP PepsiCo · Consumer Staples

-0.99%

P25-2.24% Down60.8% Dn/Up51.7% / 1.7% Score58 DownOpp1.877

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#29 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

-0.90%

P25-2.66% Down61.7% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score56.9 DownOpp1.876

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#30 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.99%

P25-2.20% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score72.3 DownOpp1.848

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#31 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.81%

P25-2.45% Down62.5% Dn/Up59.2% / 3.3% Score53.4 DownOpp1.824

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#32 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.58%

P25-2.67% Down63.3% Dn/Up511.7% / 1.7% Score51.9 DownOpp1.82

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#33 US.ORCL Oracle Corporation · Information Technology

-0.72%

P25-4.56% Down59.2% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score68.8 DownOpp1.78

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#34 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

-0.92%

P25-2.30% Down62.5% Dn/Up54.2% / 3.3% Score70.1 DownOpp1.771

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#35 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-0.84%

P25-2.49% Down61.7% Dn/Up55% / 3.3% Score57.4 DownOpp1.77

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#36 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.91%

P25-2.77% Down60% Dn/Up56.7% / 3.3% Score58 DownOpp1.769

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#37 US.PG Procter & Gamble · Consumer Staples

-0.76%

P25-2.54% Down62.5% Dn/Up53.3% / 2.5% Score71.6 DownOpp1.708

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#38 US.SOLV Solventum · Health Care

-0.73%

P25-2.33% Down63.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 3.3% Score63.8 DownOpp1.7

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#39 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.82%

P25-2.49% Down63.3% Dn/Up55.8% / 5.8% Score64.6 DownOpp1.674

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#40 US.PODD Insulet Corporation · Health Care

-0.60%

P25-2.65% Down61.7% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score52.2 DownOpp1.657

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#41 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.85%

P25-2.49% Down60.8% Dn/Up54.2% / 4.2% Score57.6 DownOpp1.653

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#42 US.SYY Sysco · Consumer Staples

-0.80%

P25-2.79% Down62.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 5.8% Score67 DownOpp1.647

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#43 US.CHD Church & Dwight · Consumer Staples

-0.72%

P25-2.50% Down60% Dn/Up51.7% / 0.8% Score60.1 DownOpp1.646

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#44 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-0.53%

P25-2.71% Down60% Dn/Up511.7% / 0% Score52 DownOpp1.618

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#45 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.84%

P25-3.17% Down58.3% Dn/Up511.7% / 5% Score50.8 DownOpp1.615

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#46 US.COIN Coinbase · Financials

-0.84%

P25-3.46% Down58.3% Dn/Up511.7% / 5.8% Score54.8 DownOpp1.61

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#47 US.PRU Prudential Financial · Financials

-0.70%

P25-2.57% Down58.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 0.8% Score48.3 DownOpp1.596

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#48 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.78%

P25-2.40% Down62.5% Dn/Up56.7% / 5% Score67.9 DownOpp1.571

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#49 US.GD General Dynamics · Industrials

-0.73%

P25-2.68% Down58.3% Dn/Up54.2% / 2.5% Score46.5 DownOpp1.565

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#50 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-0.90%

P25-3.32% Down58.3% Dn/Up510.8% / 7.5% Score53.4 DownOpp1.543

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=120

US.MOS · -1.88% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking