S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.MOS · -1.24% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.24%

Top down rate61.6%

Top P25-3.45%

DOE score2.876

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.24%

P25-3.45% Down61.6% Dn/Up515% / 8.8% Score44.3 DownOpp2.17

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#2 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-0.98%

P25-3.15% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.8% / 5.9% Score61.3 DownOpp1.954

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#3 US.NSC Norfolk Southern · Industrials

-0.85%

P25-2.82% Down61.9% Dn/Up58.4% / 2.2% Score63.3 DownOpp1.9

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#4 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-0.90%

P25-2.86% Down60% Dn/Up59.7% / 5.3% Score38.8 DownOpp1.806

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#5 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.69%

P25-2.79% Down61.3% Dn/Up55.3% / 0.9% Score58.7 DownOpp1.797

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#6 US.PSX Phillips 66 · Energy

-0.98%

P25-3.00% Down61.6% Dn/Up510.6% / 9.4% Score43.8 DownOpp1.766

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#7 US.GNRC Generac · Industrials

-0.95%

P25-3.11% Down61.3% Dn/Up510.6% / 6.3% Score65.5 DownOpp1.762

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#8 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-0.97%

P25-2.60% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 4.7% Score58.3 DownOpp1.701

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#9 US.CARR Carrier Global · Industrials

-0.92%

P25-3.05% Down60.6% Dn/Up511.9% / 7.5% Score61.2 DownOpp1.621

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#10 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.51% Down60.6% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.9% Score59.9 DownOpp1.592

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#11 US.KHC Kraft Heinz · Consumer Staples

-0.68%

P25-2.90% Down58.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score54.1 DownOpp1.553

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#12 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-0.63%

P25-2.51% Down59.4% Dn/Up53.8% / 1.3% Score56.5 DownOpp1.508

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#13 US.GE GE Aerospace · Industrials

-0.85%

P25-3.31% Down59.7% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.2% Score70.1 DownOpp1.496

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#14 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-0.63%

P25-2.66% Down59.1% Dn/Up57.8% / 1.9% Score62.8 DownOpp1.438

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#15 US.CTAS Cintas · Industrials

-0.64%

P25-2.68% Down60.6% Dn/Up57.8% / 3.8% Score67.7 DownOpp1.422

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#16 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.65%

P25-2.38% Down59.1% Dn/Up53.4% / 1.9% Score61.6 DownOpp1.397

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#17 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

-0.55%

P25-2.56% Down59.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 3.1% Score51.2 DownOpp1.372

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#18 US.LLY Lilly (Eli) · Health Care

-0.62%

P25-2.44% Down58.1% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.6% Score57.6 DownOpp1.35

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#19 US.WAT Waters Corporation · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.38% Down60% Dn/Up54.4% / 2.8% Score61.3 DownOpp1.327

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#20 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.65%

P25-2.40% Down58.4% Dn/Up55.3% / 2.8% Score60.1 DownOpp1.303

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#21 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.33% Down59.1% Dn/Up54.1% / 1.9% Score61.3 DownOpp1.297

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#22 US.SYY Sysco · Consumer Staples

-0.79%

P25-2.74% Down59.1% Dn/Up510.3% / 7.8% Score60.9 DownOpp1.278

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#23 US.IDXX Idexx Laboratories · Health Care

-0.53%

P25-2.43% Down59.7% Dn/Up54.4% / 2.5% Score65.2 DownOpp1.275

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#24 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.59%

P25-2.19% Down60% Dn/Up54.1% / 2.2% Score71.6 DownOpp1.269

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#25 US.PODD Insulet Corporation · Health Care

-0.62%

P25-2.45% Down58.4% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score66 DownOpp1.26

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#26 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.40% Down58.1% Dn/Up54.1% / 1.3% Score62 DownOpp1.225

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#27 US.CVS CVS Health · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.32% Down59.4% Dn/Up53.1% / 1.9% Score65.7 DownOpp1.225

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#28 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.42% Down57.5% Dn/Up55.6% / 2.2% Score55.9 DownOpp1.214

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#29 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.47%

P25-2.43% Down59.7% Dn/Up55% / 3.1% Score65.4 DownOpp1.177

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#30 US.RTX RTX Corporation · Industrials

-0.67%

P25-2.63% Down57.2% Dn/Up56.3% / 4.7% Score59.7 DownOpp1.174

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#31 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.63%

P25-2.48% Down59.4% Dn/Up511.3% / 5.9% Score65.6 DownOpp1.156

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#32 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.69%

P25-2.63% Down58.8% Dn/Up59.1% / 7.2% Score62.7 DownOpp1.149

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#33 US.MDLZ Mondelez International · Consumer Staples

-0.37%

P25-2.63% Down57.2% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.6% Score48.2 DownOpp1.146

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#34 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.55%

P25-2.29% Down57.8% Dn/Up55.3% / 2.8% Score59.2 DownOpp1.134

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#35 US.ERIE Erie Indemnity · Financials

-0.66%

P25-3.01% Down56.6% Dn/Up58.4% / 7.8% Score46.1 DownOpp1.127

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#36 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-0.49%

P25-2.17% Down59.4% Dn/Up54.1% / 2.5% Score68.1 DownOpp1.124

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#37 US.ADM Archer Daniels Midland · Consumer Staples

-0.43%

P25-2.39% Down57.2% Dn/Up56.6% / 1.3% Score55.4 DownOpp1.11

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#38 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.53%

P25-2.40% Down57.8% Dn/Up54.4% / 3.4% Score60.7 DownOpp1.095

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#39 US.UHS Universal Health Services · Health Care

-0.51%

P25-2.41% Down57.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 2.8% Score60.1 DownOpp1.094

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#40 US.MTD Mettler Toledo · Health Care

-0.49%

P25-2.18% Down58.8% Dn/Up54.1% / 1.9% Score71.2 DownOpp1.091

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#41 US.KDP Keurig Dr Pepper · Consumer Staples

-0.55%

P25-2.48% Down57.2% Dn/Up54.7% / 3.1% Score64.2 DownOpp1.079

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#42 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.40% Down57.2% Dn/Up54.1% / 2.5% Score60.3 DownOpp1.074

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#43 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.50%

P25-2.44% Down56.3% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.9% Score57.3 DownOpp1.07

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#44 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.18% Down59.1% Dn/Up53.8% / 2.5% Score65.8 DownOpp1.07

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#45 US.CVX Chevron Corporation · Energy

-0.61%

P25-2.83% Down57.5% Dn/Up510.3% / 9.1% Score42.7 DownOpp1.051

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#46 US.CI Cigna · Health Care

-0.47%

P25-2.18% Down58.4% Dn/Up53.4% / 1.6% Score73.1 DownOpp1.043

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#47 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-0.53%

P25-2.62% Down56.6% Dn/Up55.6% / 3.8% Score59.5 DownOpp1.039

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#48 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-0.44%

P25-2.17% Down59.1% Dn/Up54.1% / 2.5% Score69.8 DownOpp1.037

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#49 US.VLTO Veralto · Industrials

-0.53%

P25-2.72% Down57.2% Dn/Up57.8% / 4.7% Score66 DownOpp1.009

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#50 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

-0.50%

P25-2.64% Down55.6% Dn/Up55% / 4.1% Score50.8 DownOpp0.981

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=320

US.MOS · -1.24% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking