S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.MOS · -1.29% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.29%

Top down rate61.6%

Top P25-3.74%

DOE score2.873

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.29%

P25-3.74% Down61.6% Dn/Up516.9% / 9.4% Score43.7 DownOpp2.261

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#2 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-0.97%

P25-2.86% Down63.4% Dn/Up59.4% / 0.9% Score61.2 DownOpp2.244

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#3 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-0.96%

P25-2.82% Down63.4% Dn/Up59.4% / 1.9% Score57.1 DownOpp2.195

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#4 US.CLX Clorox · Consumer Staples

-1.01%

P25-3.31% Down62.2% Dn/Up512.2% / 4.4% Score49.1 DownOpp2.181

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#5 US.SNA Snap-on · Industrials

-0.93%

P25-2.94% Down63.4% Dn/Up58.4% / 3.1% Score53.8 DownOpp2.148

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#6 US.TXT Textron · Industrials

-0.96%

P25-2.84% Down63.4% Dn/Up59.1% / 3.1% Score58.2 DownOpp2.12

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#7 US.ADM Archer Daniels Midland · Consumer Staples

-1.01%

P25-3.00% Down62.5% Dn/Up59.7% / 5% Score57.2 DownOpp2.031

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#8 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.92%

P25-2.60% Down62.2% Dn/Up54.7% / 1.6% Score58.4 DownOpp2.012

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#9 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.90%

P25-3.05% Down61.9% Dn/Up58.8% / 3.8% Score52.6 DownOpp1.992

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#10 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.90%

P25-2.49% Down61.9% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.6% Score57.6 DownOpp1.947

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#11 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-0.70%

P25-3.02% Down61.6% Dn/Up58.1% / 1.6% Score51.5 DownOpp1.901

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#12 US.SYY Sysco · Consumer Staples

-0.98%

P25-3.31% Down60% Dn/Up513.1% / 5.6% Score50.3 DownOpp1.894

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#13 US.ITW Illinois Tool Works · Industrials

-0.77%

P25-2.81% Down61.9% Dn/Up58.4% / 1.3% Score60.9 DownOpp1.89

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#14 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.84%

P25-2.60% Down61.6% Dn/Up55.3% / 1.9% Score57.3 DownOpp1.874

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#15 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-0.75%

P25-2.78% Down61.9% Dn/Up57.8% / 1.3% Score60.9 DownOpp1.862

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#16 US.PM Philip Morris International · Consumer Staples

-0.81%

P25-2.98% Down60.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.9% Score54.2 DownOpp1.859

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#17 US.UNP Union Pacific Corporation · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.70% Down63.1% Dn/Up58.4% / 2.5% Score68.1 DownOpp1.802

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#18 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-0.94%

P25-3.24% Down59.7% Dn/Up513.8% / 5.9% Score50.7 DownOpp1.792

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#19 US.ALLE Allegion · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-2.82% Down60.9% Dn/Up57.8% / 3.8% Score53.3 DownOpp1.789

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#20 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-0.82%

P25-2.64% Down60.6% Dn/Up54.7% / 1.6% Score60.1 DownOpp1.781

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#21 US.MO Altria · Consumer Staples

-0.64%

P25-2.96% Down60.6% Dn/Up57.5% / 0.9% Score52.5 DownOpp1.78

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#22 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.48% Down61.3% Dn/Up54.7% / 1.9% Score56.2 DownOpp1.779

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#23 US.BF.B Brown–Forman · Consumer Staples

-1.00%

P25-2.85% Down60.3% Dn/Up58.1% / 5.9% Score56.5 DownOpp1.759

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#24 US.KHC Kraft Heinz · Consumer Staples

-0.75%

P25-3.00% Down59.7% Dn/Up58.1% / 2.2% Score53.9 DownOpp1.74

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#25 US.HON Honeywell · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.75% Down61.6% Dn/Up58.8% / 3.1% Score58.1 DownOpp1.734

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#26 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.73%

P25-2.64% Down60.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 1.6% Score56.5 DownOpp1.694

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#27 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-0.90%

P25-2.89% Down58.4% Dn/Up59.1% / 5.3% Score38.6 DownOpp1.687

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#28 US.MDT Medtronic · Health Care

-0.72%

P25-2.57% Down61.6% Dn/Up55% / 2.8% Score64.2 DownOpp1.641

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#29 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.63%

P25-2.62% Down60.3% Dn/Up55.6% / 0.6% Score58.6 DownOpp1.634

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#30 US.INCY Incyte · Health Care

-0.67%

P25-2.47% Down61.3% Dn/Up54.4% / 1.9% Score60.5 DownOpp1.624

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#31 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.62% Down59.7% Dn/Up55.6% / 1.6% Score56 DownOpp1.595

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#32 US.ERIE Erie Indemnity · Financials

-0.98%

P25-3.44% Down58.1% Dn/Up511.9% / 8.8% Score49.5 DownOpp1.589

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#33 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

-0.89%

P25-3.19% Down58.4% Dn/Up512.2% / 5.9% Score56.4 DownOpp1.582

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#34 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.72% Down60% Dn/Up55.6% / 0.6% Score57.9 DownOpp1.57

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#35 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.56% Down60.3% Dn/Up58.4% / 3.1% Score50.1 DownOpp1.562

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#36 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-3.30% Down59.1% Dn/Up511.9% / 4.7% Score50.7 DownOpp1.561

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#37 US.EME Emcor · Industrials

-0.65%

P25-2.59% Down60.6% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.9% Score63.3 DownOpp1.557

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#38 US.BIIB Biogen · Health Care

-0.69%

P25-2.47% Down59.4% Dn/Up56.3% / 3.1% Score43.1 DownOpp1.55

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#39 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.66%

P25-2.44% Down60.3% Dn/Up54.7% / 1.3% Score62.6 DownOpp1.547

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#40 US.AMCR Amcor · Materials

-1.03%

P25-3.99% Down58.8% Dn/Up518.4% / 12.8% Score55.8 DownOpp1.545

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#41 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

-0.71%

P25-3.18% Down60.3% Dn/Up512.5% / 5.9% Score58.6 DownOpp1.535

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#42 US.ROK Rockwell Automation · Industrials

-0.65%

P25-2.82% Down60.3% Dn/Up58.1% / 2.8% Score64.4 DownOpp1.528

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#43 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-0.53%

P25-2.72% Down59.1% Dn/Up510% / 1.6% Score42.6 DownOpp1.523

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#44 US.EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.80%

P25-2.67% Down59.1% Dn/Up59.4% / 4.1% Score58.7 DownOpp1.509

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#45 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.53%

P25-2.84% Down58.8% Dn/Up57.5% / 1.3% Score49.8 DownOpp1.492

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#46 US.UAL United Airlines Holdings · Industrials

-0.78%

P25-2.87% Down60% Dn/Up510.3% / 6.6% Score56 DownOpp1.482

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#47 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

-0.62%

P25-2.58% Down59.1% Dn/Up55.6% / 1.9% Score56.1 DownOpp1.458

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#48 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-0.63%

P25-2.59% Down59.1% Dn/Up58.1% / 1.6% Score61.9 DownOpp1.445

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#49 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.59%

P25-2.44% Down59.7% Dn/Up54.1% / 1.3% Score61.5 DownOpp1.437

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#50 US.CTAS Cintas · Industrials

-0.65%

P25-2.80% Down60.9% Dn/Up58.1% / 4.1% Score72 DownOpp1.436

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=320

US.MOS · -1.29% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking