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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=320 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-04-16

Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:54 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 15

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=320

As-of 2026-04-16

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-04-16
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-16
DOE window 2026-03-02 → 2026-04-13
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:54 HKT
Rows 15
Excluded downtrends 15
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +21.88% ann. net · n=511

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

3 - 3.5 · +0.23% exp · 59D WF

Opp study rows 25,760 with outcomes

1,505 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-18

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 38 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

2026-04-10

22 檔
  1. #1 ON P75+7.38% 上漲比65.6% Up/Dn35.6% / 10% Opp5.05 開富途
  2. #2 GLW P75+6.98% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn31.9% / 10.6% Opp4.28 開富途
  3. #3 MU P75+7.15% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn33.8% / 11.3% Opp4.082 開富途
  4. #4 TPL P75+4.02% 上漲比66.3% Up/Dn19.4% / 6.3% Opp4.032 開富途
  5. #5 PH P75+3.62% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 3.8% Opp3.623 開富途
  6. #6 IR P75+4.54% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn19.4% / 3.1% Opp3.539 開富途
  7. #7 EMR P75+3.50% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn16.3% / 5% Opp3.129 開富途
  8. #8 AKAM P75+4.48% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn21.9% / 11.3% Opp2.837 開富途
  9. #9 FAST P75+3.19% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn16.3% / 6.3% Opp2.764 開富途
  10. #10 PCAR P75+3.19% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn15% / 4.4% Opp2.66 開富途
  11. #11 CIEN P75+5.96% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn28.1% / 13.8% Opp2.61 開富途
  12. #12 GNRC P75+4.75% 上漲比58.1% Up/Dn23.1% / 10% Opp2.569 開富途
  13. #13 PPG P75+4.10% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn20.6% / 7.5% Opp2.476 開富途
  14. #14 SNDK P75+6.26% 上漲比56.9% Up/Dn28.8% / 16.3% Opp2.461 開富途
  15. #15 FDX P75+3.61% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn18.8% / 5% Opp2.426 開富途
  16. #16 WDC P75+6.26% 上漲比56.9% Up/Dn29.4% / 16.9% Opp2.409 開富途
  17. #17 TER P75+6.26% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn28.8% / 16.9% Opp2.36 開富途
  18. #18 TXT P75+3.58% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn18.8% / 5% Opp2.276 開富途
  19. #19 LITE P75+5.65% 上漲比56.3% Up/Dn26.9% / 16.9% Opp2.101 開富途
  20. #20 Q P75+5.75% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn28.1% / 15% Opp2.092 開富途
  21. #21 STX P75+5.78% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn27.5% / 15.6% Opp2.071 開富途
  22. #22 APH P75+5.32% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn26.3% / 15% Opp1.971 開富途

2026-04-14

10 檔
  1. #1 INTC P75+5.91% 上漲比60% Up/Dn28.2% / 15% Opp3.182 開富途
  2. #2 MPWR P75+5.71% 上漲比59% Up/Dn28% / 15.6% Opp2.961 開富途
  3. #3 AKAM P75+5.13% 上漲比60.2% Up/Dn26.4% / 13.2% Opp2.793 開富途
  4. #4 MCHP P75+5.18% 上漲比57.4% Up/Dn25.8% / 15.8% Opp2.742 開富途
  5. #5 GLW P75+5.34% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26.6% / 15.2% Opp2.708 開富途
  6. #6 AMAT P75+5.18% 上漲比57.8% Up/Dn26% / 15.8% Opp2.683 開富途
  7. #7 MU P75+5.78% 上漲比56.2% Up/Dn27.8% / 15.8% Opp2.513 開富途
  8. #8 SNDK P75+5.78% 上漲比56% Up/Dn27.2% / 16.2% Opp2.333 開富途
  9. #9 GNRC P75+3.62% 上漲比56% Up/Dn19.6% / 8.2% Opp2.043 開富途
  10. #10 BF.B P75+3.57% 上漲比53.8% Up/Dn19.4% / 8.2% Opp1.565 開富途

2026-04-15

8 檔
  1. #1 INTC P75+7.10% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn33.8% / 15% Opp3.896 開富途
  2. #2 MRVL P75+7.28% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn33.4% / 15.6% Opp3.831 開富途
  3. #3 MU P75+7.10% 上漲比60.3% Up/Dn33.1% / 15.9% Opp3.635 開富途
  4. #4 FLEX P75+5.96% 上漲比58.4% Up/Dn29.1% / 15.6% Opp2.926 開富途
  5. #5 SNDK P75+6.54% 上漲比57.2% Up/Dn29.4% / 17.5% Opp2.806 開富途
  6. #6 CARR P75+3.62% 上漲比58.1% Up/Dn19.1% / 7.2% Opp2.343 開富途
  7. #7 DAL P75+3.16% 上漲比55.6% Up/Dn18.1% / 7.5% Opp1.878 開富途
  8. #8 MGM P75+3.32% 上漲比55.3% Up/Dn19.1% / 8.1% Opp1.69 開富途

2026-04-16

15 檔
  1. #1 MRVL P75+6.69% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.2% / 14.1% Opp4.581 開富途
  2. #2 COHR P75+6.37% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn29.7% / 14.7% Opp4.201 開富途
  3. #3 NTAP P75+6.30% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn30.3% / 14.4% Opp3.98 開富途
  4. #4 MCHP P75+6.38% 上漲比60% Up/Dn29.7% / 16.3% Opp3.861 開富途
  5. #5 WDC P75+6.54% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn31.3% / 13.8% Opp3.772 開富途
  6. #6 OMC P75+4.71% 上漲比63.4% Up/Dn23.8% / 9.7% Opp3.588 開富途
  7. #7 MU P75+6.34% 上漲比60.9% Up/Dn30% / 14.1% Opp3.56 開富途
  8. #8 MPWR P75+6.33% 上漲比59.1% Up/Dn29.1% / 16.6% Opp3.535 開富途
  9. #9 TPL P75+3.53% 上漲比64.7% Up/Dn18.1% / 6.9% Opp3.336 開富途
  10. #10 INTC P75+5.38% 上漲比59.1% Up/Dn27.2% / 16.9% Opp3.267 開富途
  11. #11 APO P75+4.00% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn19.4% / 8.1% Opp3.22 開富途
  12. #12 SATS P75+4.16% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn19.7% / 8.4% Opp3.104 開富途
  13. #13 SNDK P75+5.70% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn28.4% / 15.3% Opp2.98 開富途
  14. #14 FLEX P75+5.61% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn27.2% / 15.6% Opp2.731 開富途
  15. #15 TSLA P75+3.45% 上漲比59.1% Up/Dn19.4% / 6.6% Opp2.253 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.MRVL P75+6.69% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.2% / 14.1% Opp4.581 開富途
  2. #2 US.COHR P75+6.37% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn29.7% / 14.7% Opp4.201 開富途
  3. #3 US.NTAP P75+6.30% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn30.3% / 14.4% Opp3.98 開富途
  4. #4 US.MCHP P75+6.38% 上漲比60% Up/Dn29.7% / 16.3% Opp3.861 開富途
  5. #5 US.WDC P75+6.54% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn31.3% / 13.8% Opp3.772 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

No qualified stable Opp plateau — Opp filter not auto-applied. Set Min/Max Opp manually, or rematerialize Opp study. (Block-bootstrap 95% lower bound of combined lift is not positive.)

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+2.02%

P75+6.69% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.2% / 14.1% Score71.2 Opp4.581
View chart 開富途
#2 US.COHR Coherent Corp. · Information Technology

+1.93%

P75+6.37% 上漲比61.6% Up/Dn29.7% / 14.7% Score84.3 Opp4.201
View chart 開富途
#3 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+1.76%

P75+6.30% 上漲比62.2% Up/Dn30.3% / 14.4% Score71 Opp3.98
View chart 開富途
#4 US.MCHP Microchip Technology · Information Technology

+1.83%

P75+6.38% 上漲比60% Up/Dn29.7% / 16.3% Score81.8 Opp3.861
View chart 開富途
#5 US.WDC Western Digital · Information Technology

+1.50%

P75+6.54% 上漲比61.3% Up/Dn31.3% / 13.8% Score74.8 Opp3.772
View chart 開富途
#6 US.OMC Omnicom Group · Communication Services

+1.35%

P75+4.71% 上漲比63.4% Up/Dn23.8% / 9.7% Score76 Opp3.588
View chart 開富途
#7 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+1.41%

P75+6.34% 上漲比60.9% Up/Dn30% / 14.1% Score71.8 Opp3.56
View chart 開富途
#8 US.MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · Information Technology

+1.59%

P75+6.33% 上漲比59.1% Up/Dn29.1% / 16.6% Score84 Opp3.535
View chart 開富途
#9 US.TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation · Energy

+1.23%

P75+3.53% 上漲比64.7% Up/Dn18.1% / 6.9% Score61.5 Opp3.336
View chart 開富途
#10 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+1.57%

P75+5.38% 上漲比59.1% Up/Dn27.2% / 16.9% Score85.1 Opp3.267
View chart 開富途
#11 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

+1.16%

P75+4.00% 上漲比61.9% Up/Dn19.4% / 8.1% Score79.2 Opp3.22
View chart 開富途
#12 US.SATS EchoStar · Communication Services

+1.21%

P75+4.16% 上漲比60.6% Up/Dn19.7% / 8.4% Score68 Opp3.104
View chart 開富途
#13 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+1.21%

P75+5.70% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn28.4% / 15.3% Score74.6 Opp2.98
View chart 開富途
#14 US.FLEX Flex Ltd. · Information Technology

+1.10%

P75+5.61% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn27.2% / 15.6% Score75.2 Opp2.731
View chart 開富途
#15 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

+0.52%

P75+3.45% 上漲比59.1% Up/Dn19.4% / 6.6% Score71.8 Opp2.253
View chart 開富途