S&P 500 Downside Projection Opportunities

Downside ranking

US.J · -0.98% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-0.98%

Top down rate63.8%

Top P25-2.96%

DOE score2.899

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.98%

P25-2.96% Down63.8% Dn/Up59.1% / 2.5% Score56.1 DownOpp2.253

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#2 US.CAG Conagra Brands · Consumer Staples

-1.02%

P25-3.23% Down61.6% Dn/Up510.9% / 4.4% Score50.5 DownOpp2.113

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#3 US.ABBV AbbVie · Health Care

-0.96%

P25-2.75% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 1.6% Score58.5 DownOpp2.113

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#4 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

-0.97%

P25-2.62% Down62.8% Dn/Up55% / 2.2% Score59.1 DownOpp2.074

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#5 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-2.81% Down61.9% Dn/Up59.4% / 2.5% Score55.1 DownOpp1.931

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#6 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-0.98%

P25-3.44% Down60.6% Dn/Up512.5% / 6.6% Score51.1 DownOpp1.909

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#7 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-3.00% Down60.9% Dn/Up57.8% / 3.1% Score53.1 DownOpp1.878

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#8 US.MGM MGM Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.79%

P25-3.52% Down62.2% Dn/Up513.4% / 5.9% Score57.1 DownOpp1.864

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#9 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.82%

P25-3.42% Down61.9% Dn/Up513.4% / 5.6% Score57.2 DownOpp1.862

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#10 US.MCK McKesson Corporation · Health Care

-0.79%

P25-2.69% Down61.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.2% Score53.4 DownOpp1.834

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#11 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-2.96% Down60.3% Dn/Up58.1% / 3.1% Score53.8 DownOpp1.815

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#12 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

-0.96%

P25-2.64% Down59.4% Dn/Up55.9% / 3.1% Score58.1 DownOpp1.75

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#13 US.MOS Mosaic Company (The) · Materials

-1.06%

P25-3.87% Down59.4% Dn/Up516.3% / 11.3% Score48.7 DownOpp1.736

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#14 US.ABT Abbott Laboratories · Health Care

-0.87%

P25-2.64% Down60% Dn/Up55.3% / 2.8% Score57.1 DownOpp1.734

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#15 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

-0.80%

P25-2.62% Down60.6% Dn/Up55.9% / 2.5% Score60.9 DownOpp1.696

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#16 US.GD General Dynamics · Industrials

-0.84%

P25-2.97% Down59.4% Dn/Up57.8% / 3.8% Score55.8 DownOpp1.688

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#17 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

-0.80%

P25-2.63% Down60.3% Dn/Up55.9% / 2.5% Score59.9 DownOpp1.682

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#18 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-0.75%

P25-2.98% Down59.4% Dn/Up511.3% / 4.1% Score45.2 DownOpp1.662

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#19 US.IQV IQVIA · Health Care

-0.87%

P25-2.99% Down59.4% Dn/Up58.4% / 5.3% Score56.9 DownOpp1.625

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#20 US.VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

-0.72%

P25-2.62% Down60% Dn/Up57.8% / 2.8% Score53 DownOpp1.609

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#21 US.SYK Stryker Corporation · Health Care

-0.72%

P25-2.56% Down60.3% Dn/Up54.7% / 2.2% Score59.6 DownOpp1.605

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#22 US.ZBH Zimmer Biomet · Health Care

-0.73%

P25-2.63% Down59.4% Dn/Up54.7% / 1.6% Score62.3 DownOpp1.576

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#23 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

-0.75%

P25-3.14% Down59.7% Dn/Up511.3% / 5.9% Score52.9 DownOpp1.56

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#24 US.DHR Danaher Corporation · Health Care

-0.73%

P25-2.61% Down60% Dn/Up55.6% / 2.8% Score62.8 DownOpp1.544

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#25 US.BBY Best Buy · Consumer Discretionary

-0.75%

P25-3.37% Down61.3% Dn/Up513.1% / 8.1% Score62.3 DownOpp1.543

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#26 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.74%

P25-3.30% Down58.4% Dn/Up512.2% / 6.9% Score41.1 DownOpp1.515

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#27 US.COR Cencora · Health Care

-0.72%

P25-2.73% Down59.1% Dn/Up55.6% / 3.1% Score61.1 DownOpp1.486

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#28 US.STE Steris · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.53% Down59.1% Dn/Up55.6% / 2.2% Score60.3 DownOpp1.456

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#29 US.DLTR Dollar Tree · Consumer Staples

-0.65%

P25-2.98% Down58.4% Dn/Up510.3% / 4.1% Score52 DownOpp1.431

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#30 US.EXPE Expedia Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.69%

P25-3.34% Down60.6% Dn/Up513.1% / 8.1% Score62.8 DownOpp1.416

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#31 US.RMD ResMed · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.63% Down59.4% Dn/Up56.3% / 3.4% Score63.6 DownOpp1.408

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#32 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.70%

P25-3.01% Down59.4% Dn/Up510.6% / 5.6% Score63.1 DownOpp1.395

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#33 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

-0.62%

P25-2.59% Down58.4% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score52.6 DownOpp1.395

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#34 US.ZTS Zoetis · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.51% Down58.8% Dn/Up55.9% / 2.8% Score61.4 DownOpp1.383

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#35 US.PFE Pfizer · Health Care

-0.54%

P25-2.57% Down59.1% Dn/Up57.5% / 2.5% Score52.8 DownOpp1.365

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#36 US.ADP Automatic Data Processing · Industrials

-0.59%

P25-2.68% Down56.9% Dn/Up55.6% / 1.6% Score48.3 DownOpp1.354

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#37 US.ULTA Ulta Beauty · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-2.46% Down59.7% Dn/Up58.4% / 4.1% Score52.5 DownOpp1.331

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#38 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-0.68%

P25-3.62% Down58.1% Dn/Up512.5% / 8.4% Score56.6 DownOpp1.305

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#39 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-0.67%

P25-3.66% Down58.8% Dn/Up515.3% / 9.4% Score57.1 DownOpp1.297

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#40 US.FSLR First Solar · Information Technology

-0.75%

P25-4.01% Down55.9% Dn/Up520.3% / 8.4% Score58 DownOpp1.285

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#41 US.WAT Waters Corporation · Health Care

-0.68%

P25-2.56% Down58.1% Dn/Up55.3% / 3.8% Score61.1 DownOpp1.282

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#42 US.ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities · Real Estate

-0.43%

P25-2.33% Down59.1% Dn/Up54.7% / 2.2% Score45.5 DownOpp1.267

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#43 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.65%

P25-3.45% Down58.1% Dn/Up514.1% / 8.1% Score56.1 DownOpp1.254

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#44 US.ISRG Intuitive Surgical · Health Care

-0.52%

P25-2.48% Down57.5% Dn/Up57.8% / 2.8% Score51.3 DownOpp1.187

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#45 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-0.44%

P25-2.68% Down57.2% Dn/Up56.9% / 2.2% Score49.9 DownOpp1.18

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#46 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.44%

P25-2.68% Down57.2% Dn/Up56.9% / 2.2% Score49.9 DownOpp1.18

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#47 US.SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) · Consumer Staples

-0.42%

P25-2.29% Down57.8% Dn/Up55.9% / 1.3% Score49.2 DownOpp1.169

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#48 US.COO Cooper Companies (The) · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.64% Down57.5% Dn/Up55.9% / 3.1% Score63.7 DownOpp1.156

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#49 US.WST West Pharmaceutical Services · Health Care

-0.53%

P25-2.34% Down58.1% Dn/Up54.1% / 1.9% Score66 DownOpp1.154

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#50 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.56%

P25-2.56% Down56.9% Dn/Up55% / 2.8% Score59.5 DownOpp1.138

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Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

3D · n=320

US.J · -0.98% median

Projected downside + down-rate ranking