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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=40

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-03-05
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-03-05
DOE window 2026-01-16 → 2026-03-02
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年7月9日 下午5:59 HKT
Rows 50
Excluded uptrends 193

Downside ranking

US.GRMN · -3.37% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-3.37%
Top down rate80%
Top P25-5.32%
DOE score2.217

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.GRMN Garmin · Consumer Discretionary

-3.37%

P25-5.32% Down80% Dn/Up530% / 5% Score57.4 DownOpp6.369
View chart 開富途
#2 US.MS Morgan Stanley · Financials

-2.59%

P25-4.27% Down75% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score53.8 DownOpp5.254
View chart 開富途
#3 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-2.95%

P25-5.62% Down70% Dn/Up532.5% / 7.5% Score45.8 DownOpp5.162
View chart 開富途
#4 US.ARES Ares Management · Financials

-3.12%

P25-5.38% Down67.5% Dn/Up530% / 10% Score45.3 DownOpp4.925
View chart 開富途
#5 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

-2.61%

P25-5.03% Down75% Dn/Up525% / 12.5% Score54.6 DownOpp4.708
View chart 開富途
#6 US.TXN Texas Instruments · Information Technology

-2.79%

P25-5.27% Down67.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score54.6 DownOpp4.648
View chart 開富途
#7 US.TSLA Tesla, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.74%

P25-4.10% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score52.9 DownOpp3.418
View chart 開富途
#8 US.KEY KeyCorp · Financials

-1.66%

P25-3.40% Down70% Dn/Up512.5% / 7.5% Score47.6 DownOpp3.303
View chart 開富途
#9 US.TSCO Tractor Supply · Consumer Discretionary

-1.19%

P25-2.54% Down72.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score50.1 DownOpp3.249
View chart 開富途
#10 US.NVDA Nvidia · Information Technology

-1.50%

P25-3.29% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score48.7 DownOpp3.207
View chart 開富途
#11 US.AFL Aflac · Financials

-1.20%

P25-4.50% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score51.8 DownOpp3.137
View chart 開富途
#12 US.TROW T. Rowe Price · Financials

-0.98%

P25-3.79% Down67.5% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score48.7 DownOpp2.962
View chart 開富途
#13 US.IQV IQVIA · Health Care

-1.45%

P25-2.69% Down65% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score66.9 DownOpp2.821
View chart 開富途
#14 US.HBAN Huntington Bancshares · Financials

-1.04%

P25-3.67% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score47.1 DownOpp2.804
View chart 開富途
#15 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

-1.63%

P25-4.49% Down57.5% Dn/Up520% / 2.5% Score57.7 DownOpp2.77
View chart 開富途
#16 US.NXPI NXP Semiconductors · Information Technology

-1.38%

P25-6.46% Down57.5% Dn/Up535% / 10% Score46.1 DownOpp2.649
View chart 開富途
#17 US.AIZ Assurant · Financials

-1.04%

P25-2.09% Down67.5% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score59.5 DownOpp2.516
View chart 開富途
#18 US.EMR Emerson Electric · Industrials

-0.95%

P25-4.14% Down62.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score43.5 DownOpp2.509
View chart 開富途
#19 US.CRL Charles River Laboratories · Health Care

-1.25%

P25-2.66% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score66.9 DownOpp2.413
View chart 開富途
#20 US.WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.89%

P25-4.27% Down57.5% Dn/Up520% / 12.5% Score54.8 DownOpp2.396
View chart 開富途
#21 US.NTRS Northern Trust · Financials

-1.02%

P25-3.41% Down65% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score52.8 DownOpp2.377
View chart 開富途
#22 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.95%

P25-3.17% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score47.5 DownOpp2.286
View chart 開富途
#23 US.CARR Carrier Global · Industrials

-1.58%

P25-3.72% Down57.5% Dn/Up520% / 7.5% Score52.7 DownOpp2.265
View chart 開富途
#24 US.BNY BNY Mellon · Financials

-0.98%

P25-3.23% Down60% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score47.3 DownOpp2.233
View chart 開富途
#25 US.MA Mastercard · Financials

-1.04%

P25-2.49% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score59.4 DownOpp2.217
View chart 開富途
#26 US.YUM Yum! Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-1.21%

P25-3.43% Down62.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score53.6 DownOpp2.215
View chart 開富途
#27 US.CFG Citizens Financial Group · Financials

-0.67%

P25-3.53% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score46.3 DownOpp2.205
View chart 開富途
#28 US.COF Capital One · Financials

-0.55%

P25-4.29% Down65% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score43.6 DownOpp2.196
View chart 開富途
#29 US.A Agilent Technologies · Health Care

-0.65%

P25-2.79% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 2.5% Score55.5 DownOpp2.181
View chart 開富途
#30 US.RL Ralph Lauren Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.97%

P25-2.53% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score54.8 DownOpp2.142
View chart 開富途
#31 US.SYF Synchrony Financial · Financials

-1.15%

P25-3.15% Down62.5% Dn/Up510% / 7.5% Score46.9 DownOpp2.136
View chart 開富途
#32 US.SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation · Financials

-0.80%

P25-3.84% Down60% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score54.2 DownOpp2.004
View chart 開富途
#33 US.CPAY Corpay · Financials

-0.55%

P25-4.15% Down62.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 5% Score44.2 DownOpp1.956
View chart 開富途
#34 US.ACGL Arch Capital Group · Financials

-0.45%

P25-2.84% Down65% Dn/Up57.5% / 0% Score54.9 DownOpp1.948
View chart 開富途
#35 US.ADBE Adobe Inc. · Information Technology

-0.84%

P25-3.67% Down62.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score68.4 DownOpp1.945
View chart 開富途
#36 US.GEHC GE HealthCare · Health Care

-0.78%

P25-2.75% Down60% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score43.3 DownOpp1.943
View chart 開富途
#37 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-0.89%

P25-4.66% Down60% Dn/Up525% / 10% Score41.7 DownOpp1.942
View chart 開富途
#38 US.HLT Hilton Worldwide · Consumer Discretionary

-0.85%

P25-3.00% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 5% Score52.2 DownOpp1.909
View chart 開富途
#39 US.UHS Universal Health Services · Health Care

-0.76%

P25-2.83% Down60% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score49.7 DownOpp1.895
View chart 開富途
#40 US.ROL Rollins, Inc. · Industrials

-0.61%

P25-2.90% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score50.3 DownOpp1.858
View chart 開富途
#41 US.XYL Xylem Inc. · Industrials

-0.74%

P25-2.37% Down62.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score50.2 DownOpp1.806
View chart 開富途
#42 US.FISV Fiserv · Financials

-1.19%

P25-3.13% Down55% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score67.6 DownOpp1.716
View chart 開富途
#43 US.CDNS Cadence Design Systems · Information Technology

-1.39%

P25-3.44% Down62.5% Dn/Up520% / 17.5% Score65.7 DownOpp1.707
View chart 開富途
#44 US.GS Goldman Sachs · Financials

-0.72%

P25-3.85% Down60% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score46.3 DownOpp1.685
View chart 開富途
#45 US.VEEV Veeva Systems · Health Care

-0.82%

P25-3.81% Down65% Dn/Up57.5% / 10% Score92.2 DownOpp1.681
View chart 開富途
#46 US.MCO Moody's Corporation · Financials

-0.43%

P25-1.93% Down65% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score59.7 DownOpp1.665
View chart 開富途
#47 US.EME Emcor · Industrials

-1.23%

P25-3.16% Down62.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 17.5% Score48.8 DownOpp1.604
View chart 開富途
#48 US.ERIE Erie Indemnity · Financials

-1.01%

P25-3.60% Down60% Dn/Up515% / 12.5% Score48 DownOpp1.6
View chart 開富途
#49 US.APO Apollo Global Management · Financials

-0.80%

P25-5.05% Down55% Dn/Up525% / 10% Score40.9 DownOpp1.556
View chart 開富途
#50 US.CRM Salesforce · Information Technology

-1.61%

P25-3.72% Down60% Dn/Up522.5% / 20% Score79.5 DownOpp1.544
View chart 開富途