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Rolling projection calibration

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-10-28
Calibrated as-of 2026-10-28
Window 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-22
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年10月29日 上午7:44 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=40

Calibration results snapshot · Window: 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-22 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-10-28 · computed at: 2026年10月29日 上午7:44 HKT

Median abs error2.73%
Mean abs error3.22%
Bias+1.02%
Inside P25/P7541.7%

Calibration setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.73%
Bias +1.02%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.74%
Bias +1.09%
P25/P75 hit 42.5%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.76%
Bias +1.14%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.78%
Bias +1.12%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.77%
Bias +1.16%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.76%
Bias +1.14%
P25/P75 hit 42.5%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.81%
Bias +1.14%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.47%
Bias +1.05%
P25/P75 hit 40.9%
n 115
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.37%
Bias +1.14%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 115
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.46%
Bias +1.14%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 115
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 3.42%
Bias +0.90%
P25/P75 hit 36.5%
n 115
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=80
Median abs 3.42%
Bias +1.05%
P25/P75 hit 40.9%
n 115
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=40: median projection vs actual return

-4 -1 2 -10.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.SLB Median projection -0.12, actual return +1.40%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.CRM Median projection 0.16, actual return +0.36%, runup +0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.NOW Median projection -1.59, actual return -5.52%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.GEN Median projection -1.14, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.05%, drawdown -0.05%US.SLB Median projection -2.45, actual return -4.48%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.HAL Median projection -0.38, actual return +1.19%, runup +1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.QCOM Median projection 0.17, actual return -1.12%, runup -1.29%, drawdown -1.29%US.NOW Median projection -1.88, actual return -1.62%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.SATS Median projection 0.89, actual return +7.76%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.HOOD Median projection -2.17, actual return -7.57%, runup -5.40%, drawdown -5.40%US.PFG Median projection -1.06, actual return -3.79%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.DELL Median projection -1.39, actual return +3.65%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.ELV Median projection -0.41, actual return -4.31%, runup -3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.SATS Median projection 1.93, actual return +2.28%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.ORCL Median projection -0.62, actual return -7.53%, runup -6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.SWKS Median projection -1.06, actual return +17.21%, runup +18.27%, drawdown -18.27%US.BG Median projection -0.01, actual return -1.19%, runup -1.18%, drawdown -1.18%US.VLO Median projection 0.26, actual return +1.98%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.HPQ Median projection -1.35, actual return -7.84%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.DELL Median projection -1.17, actual return -0.71%, runup +0.46%, drawdown -0.46%US.SWKS Median projection -1.39, actual return -3.12%, runup -1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.HPE Median projection -0.5, actual return -8.71%, runup -8.21%, drawdown -8.21%US.BBY Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.28%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.KR Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.26%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.CRWD Median projection 0.17, actual return +4.38%, runup +4.21%, drawdown -4.21%US.CHRW Median projection -1.81, actual return -2.22%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.TMO Median projection -1.2, actual return +1.59%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.UHS Median projection -1.2, actual return -3.57%, runup -2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.VLO Median projection 1.32, actual return -2.48%, runup -3.80%, drawdown -3.80%US.RVTY Median projection -0.93, actual return -1.47%, runup -0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.CRWD Median projection -1.13, actual return +1.77%, runup +2.90%, drawdown -2.90%US.TMO Median projection -0.26, actual return +0.03%, runup +0.29%, drawdown -0.29%US.ARE Median projection -2.08, actual return -4.42%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.AMD Median projection -0.32, actual return +14.43%, runup +14.75%, drawdown -14.75%US.AMD Median projection -0.78, actual return +9.79%, runup +10.57%, drawdown -10.57%US.A Median projection 0.83, actual return +5.66%, runup +4.83%, drawdown -4.83%US.FTNT Median projection -1.35, actual return +5.24%, runup +6.59%, drawdown -6.59%US.MPC Median projection -0.32, actual return -8.59%, runup -8.27%, drawdown -8.27%US.INTC Median projection -0.32, actual return +4.61%, runup +4.93%, drawdown -4.93%US.WBD Median projection -1.61, actual return +0.13%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.AMD Median projection -0.98, actual return +2.23%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.META Median projection -1.38, actual return +4.90%, runup +6.28%, drawdown -6.28%US.KEYS Median projection -0.7, actual return +1.81%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.DE Median projection -1.37, actual return -2.80%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.PLTR Median projection -0.11, actual return -2.25%, runup -2.14%, drawdown -2.14%US.WST Median projection -1.31, actual return -0.06%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25%US.META Median projection -1.23, actual return -4.99%, runup -3.76%, drawdown -3.76%US.GRMN Median projection -0.48, actual return -1.63%, runup -1.15%, drawdown -1.15%US.AMD Median projection -0.86, actual return -3.45%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.A Median projection -0.98, actual return +1.27%, runup +2.25%, drawdown -2.25%US.DDOG Median projection -0.84, actual return +2.13%, runup +2.97%, drawdown -2.97%US.SMCI Median projection 0.38, actual return -5.06%, runup -5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.COST Median projection -0.91, actual return -1.35%, runup -0.44%, drawdown -0.44%US.QCOM Median projection -1.13, actual return -8.88%, runup -7.75%, drawdown -7.75%US.A Median projection -0.92, actual return -4.87%, runup -3.95%, drawdown -3.95%US.WAT Median projection -1.02, actual return -3.93%, runup -2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.VTRS Median projection -0.88, actual return -4.43%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.NTAP Median projection 0.23, actual return +5.21%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98%US.WBD Median projection -0.34, actual return 0.00%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.RCL Median projection -0.96, actual return +3.45%, runup +4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, actual return +5.26%, runup +4.09%, drawdown -4.09%US.CCL Median projection -0.47, actual return +4.16%, runup +4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.SNPS Median projection -0.52, actual return +2.98%, runup +3.50%, drawdown -3.50%US.ACN Median projection -0.05, actual return -8.90%, runup -8.85%, drawdown -8.85%US.KEYS Median projection -0.35, actual return +3.78%, runup +4.13%, drawdown -4.13%US.LITE Median projection -0.72, actual return +8.38%, runup +9.10%, drawdown -9.10%US.TER Median projection -1.31, actual return -8.30%, runup -6.99%, drawdown -6.99%US.NTAP Median projection -1.14, actual return +4.20%, runup +5.34%, drawdown -5.34%US.HPE Median projection -0.57, actual return +3.98%, runup +4.55%, drawdown -4.55%US.LITE Median projection -1.13, actual return +2.36%, runup +3.49%, drawdown -3.49%US.WSM Median projection -1.02, actual return +0.13%, runup +1.15%, drawdown -1.15%US.MSFT Median projection -0.19, actual return -0.49%, runup -0.30%, drawdown -0.30%US.LITE Median projection -0.73, actual return -3.95%, runup -3.22%, drawdown -3.22%US.PTC Median projection -1.35, actual return +0.76%, runup +2.11%, drawdown -2.11%US.PWR Median projection -1.87, actual return -1.89%, runup -0.02%, drawdown -0.02%US.CIEN Median projection 0.37, actual return +1.38%, runup +1.01%, drawdown -1.01%US.ANET Median projection -0.53, actual return +0.64%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.MRVL Median projection -1.35, actual return -4.09%, runup -2.74%, drawdown -2.74%US.PSKY Median projection -0.4, actual return +3.04%, runup +3.44%, drawdown -3.44%US.SATS Median projection 1.11, actual return -2.65%, runup -3.76%, drawdown -3.76%US.MO Median projection -1.02, actual return +0.20%, runup +1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.STZ Median projection -1.12, actual return +2.77%, runup +3.89%, drawdown -3.89%US.PG Median projection -0.9, actual return +1.63%, runup +2.53%, drawdown -2.53%US.PM Median projection -1, actual return -0.60%, runup +0.40%, drawdown -0.40%US.HUM Median projection -0.86, actual return -1.04%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.AMT Median projection -1.78, actual return -1.56%, runup +0.22%, drawdown -0.22%US.PLTR Median projection -1.14, actual return -3.87%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.CCI Median projection -1.54, actual return -0.33%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.STZ Median projection -0.69, actual return +2.52%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.CTAS Median projection -0.28, actual return +3.82%, runup +4.10%, drawdown -4.10%US.CCI Median projection -1.1, actual return -1.25%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.KDP Median projection -1.06, actual return +4.37%, runup +5.43%, drawdown -5.43%US.MPC Median projection -1.52, actual return +0.23%, runup +1.75%, drawdown -1.75%US.ELV Median projection -0.82, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.V Median projection -1.33, actual return +1.65%, runup +2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.UNH Median projection 0.83, actual return +6.27%, runup +5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.CTAS Median projection -0.69, actual return +1.76%, runup +2.45%, drawdown -2.45%US.FAST Median projection -1.5, actual return -1.88%, runup -0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.DG Median projection -0.68, actual return +2.56%, runup +3.24%, drawdown -3.24%US.CL Median projection -0.82, actual return +0.66%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.TRV Median projection -2.39, actual return +3.08%, runup +5.47%, drawdown -5.47%US.WSM Median projection 0.08, actual return +0.78%, runup +0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.BLK Median projection -2.37, actual return +0.70%, runup +3.07%, drawdown -3.07%US.AMGN Median projection -0.25, actual return +1.13%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.EOG Median projection -1.18, actual return -0.08%, runup +1.10%, drawdown -1.10%US.TRV Median projection -2.28, actual return +2.42%, runup +4.70%, drawdown -4.70%US.APA Median projection -0.4, actual return +0.98%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.EXE Median projection -1.33, actual return -0.62%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.APA Median projection 0.07, actual return -0.64%, runup -0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.DVN Median projection 0.13, actual return -3.42%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.CASY Median projection 0.68, actual return +2.87%, runup +2.19%, drawdown -2.19%US.MNST Median projection 0.96, actual return +1.07%, runup +0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.HAS Median projection -1.51, actual return +7.23%, runup +8.74%, drawdown -8.74%US.FOXA Median projection -0.43, actual return -0.60%, runup -0.17%, drawdown -0.17%US.IT Median projection -0.73, actual return +4.84%, runup +5.57%, drawdown -5.57%US.NOC Median projection -1.37, actual return +3.27%, runup +4.64%, drawdown -4.64%US.HON Median projection -0.44, actual return +0.23%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.NDAQ Median projection -1.04, actual return +1.03%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.CSX Median projection -0.11, actual return +1.16%, runup +1.27%, drawdown -1.27%US.ALLE Median projection -1.28, actual return +2.28%, runup +3.56%, drawdown -3.56% Bucket avg Median projection -2.3, actual return -1.71%, n 6Bucket avg Median projection -0.9, actual return +0.18%, n 93Bucket avg Median projection 0.6, actual return +1.40%, n 21 Corr +0.17 R² 3.0% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.30%

Best setting 3D · n=40: median projection vs forecast error

-4 -1 2 -10.00% 0.00% +20.00% US.SLB Median projection -0.12, forecast error +1.52%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.CRM Median projection 0.16, forecast error +0.20%, runup +0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.NOW Median projection -1.59, forecast error -3.93%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.GEN Median projection -1.14, forecast error -0.05%, runup -0.05%, drawdown -0.05%US.SLB Median projection -2.45, forecast error -2.03%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.HAL Median projection -0.38, forecast error +1.57%, runup +1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.QCOM Median projection 0.17, forecast error -1.29%, runup -1.29%, drawdown -1.29%US.NOW Median projection -1.88, forecast error +0.26%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.SATS Median projection 0.89, forecast error +6.87%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.HOOD Median projection -2.17, forecast error -5.40%, runup -5.40%, drawdown -5.40%US.PFG Median projection -1.06, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.DELL Median projection -1.39, forecast error +5.04%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.ELV Median projection -0.41, forecast error -3.90%, runup -3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.SATS Median projection 1.93, forecast error +0.35%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.ORCL Median projection -0.62, forecast error -6.91%, runup -6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.SWKS Median projection -1.06, forecast error +18.27%, runup +18.27%, drawdown -18.27%US.BG Median projection -0.01, forecast error -1.18%, runup -1.18%, drawdown -1.18%US.VLO Median projection 0.26, forecast error +1.72%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.HPQ Median projection -1.35, forecast error -6.49%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.DELL Median projection -1.17, forecast error +0.46%, runup +0.46%, drawdown -0.46%US.SWKS Median projection -1.39, forecast error -1.73%, runup -1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.HPE Median projection -0.5, forecast error -8.21%, runup -8.21%, drawdown -8.21%US.BBY Median projection 0.62, forecast error -0.90%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.KR Median projection 0.44, forecast error -0.70%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.CRWD Median projection 0.17, forecast error +4.21%, runup +4.21%, drawdown -4.21%US.CHRW Median projection -1.81, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.TMO Median projection -1.2, forecast error +2.79%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.UHS Median projection -1.2, forecast error -2.37%, runup -2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.VLO Median projection 1.32, forecast error -3.80%, runup -3.80%, drawdown -3.80%US.RVTY Median projection -0.93, forecast error -0.54%, runup -0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.CRWD Median projection -1.13, forecast error +2.90%, runup +2.90%, drawdown -2.90%US.TMO Median projection -0.26, forecast error +0.29%, runup +0.29%, drawdown -0.29%US.ARE Median projection -2.08, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.AMD Median projection -0.32, forecast error +14.75%, runup +14.75%, drawdown -14.75%US.AMD Median projection -0.78, forecast error +10.57%, runup +10.57%, drawdown -10.57%US.A Median projection 0.83, forecast error +4.83%, runup +4.83%, drawdown -4.83%US.FTNT Median projection -1.35, forecast error +6.59%, runup +6.59%, drawdown -6.59%US.MPC Median projection -0.32, forecast error -8.27%, runup -8.27%, drawdown -8.27%US.INTC Median projection -0.32, forecast error +4.93%, runup +4.93%, drawdown -4.93%US.WBD Median projection -1.61, forecast error +1.74%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.AMD Median projection -0.98, forecast error +3.21%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.META Median projection -1.38, forecast error +6.28%, runup +6.28%, drawdown -6.28%US.KEYS Median projection -0.7, forecast error +2.51%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.DE Median projection -1.37, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.PLTR Median projection -0.11, forecast error -2.14%, runup -2.14%, drawdown -2.14%US.WST Median projection -1.31, forecast error +1.25%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25%US.META Median projection -1.23, forecast error -3.76%, runup -3.76%, drawdown -3.76%US.GRMN Median projection -0.48, forecast error -1.15%, runup -1.15%, drawdown -1.15%US.AMD Median projection -0.86, forecast error -2.59%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.A Median projection -0.98, forecast error +2.25%, runup +2.25%, drawdown -2.25%US.DDOG Median projection -0.84, forecast error +2.97%, runup +2.97%, drawdown -2.97%US.SMCI Median projection 0.38, forecast error -5.44%, runup -5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.COST Median projection -0.91, forecast error -0.44%, runup -0.44%, drawdown -0.44%US.QCOM Median projection -1.13, forecast error -7.75%, runup -7.75%, drawdown -7.75%US.A Median projection -0.92, forecast error -3.95%, runup -3.95%, drawdown -3.95%US.WAT Median projection -1.02, forecast error -2.91%, runup -2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.VTRS Median projection -0.88, forecast error -3.55%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.NTAP Median projection 0.23, forecast error +4.98%, runup +4.98%, drawdown -4.98%US.WBD Median projection -0.34, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.RCL Median projection -0.96, forecast error +4.41%, runup +4.41%, drawdown -4.41%US.LRCX Median projection 1.17, forecast error +4.09%, runup +4.09%, drawdown -4.09%US.CCL Median projection -0.47, forecast error +4.63%, runup +4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.SNPS Median projection -0.52, forecast error +3.50%, runup +3.50%, drawdown -3.50%US.ACN Median projection -0.05, forecast error -8.85%, runup -8.85%, drawdown -8.85%US.KEYS Median projection -0.35, forecast error +4.13%, runup +4.13%, drawdown -4.13%US.LITE Median projection -0.72, forecast error +9.10%, runup +9.10%, drawdown -9.10%US.TER Median projection -1.31, forecast error -6.99%, runup -6.99%, drawdown -6.99%US.NTAP Median projection -1.14, forecast error +5.34%, runup +5.34%, drawdown -5.34%US.HPE Median projection -0.57, forecast error +4.55%, runup +4.55%, drawdown -4.55%US.LITE Median projection -1.13, forecast error +3.49%, runup +3.49%, drawdown -3.49%US.WSM Median projection -1.02, forecast error +1.15%, runup +1.15%, drawdown -1.15%US.MSFT Median projection -0.19, forecast error -0.30%, runup -0.30%, drawdown -0.30%US.LITE Median projection -0.73, forecast error -3.22%, runup -3.22%, drawdown -3.22%US.PTC Median projection -1.35, forecast error +2.11%, runup +2.11%, drawdown -2.11%US.PWR Median projection -1.87, forecast error -0.02%, runup -0.02%, drawdown -0.02%US.CIEN Median projection 0.37, forecast error +1.01%, runup +1.01%, drawdown -1.01%US.ANET Median projection -0.53, forecast error +1.17%, runup +1.17%, drawdown -1.17%US.MRVL Median projection -1.35, forecast error -2.74%, runup -2.74%, drawdown -2.74%US.PSKY Median projection -0.4, forecast error +3.44%, runup +3.44%, drawdown -3.44%US.SATS Median projection 1.11, forecast error -3.76%, runup -3.76%, drawdown -3.76%US.MO Median projection -1.02, forecast error +1.22%, runup +1.22%, drawdown -1.22%US.STZ Median projection -1.12, forecast error +3.89%, runup +3.89%, drawdown -3.89%US.PG Median projection -0.9, forecast error +2.53%, runup +2.53%, drawdown -2.53%US.PM Median projection -1, forecast error +0.40%, runup +0.40%, drawdown -0.40%US.HUM Median projection -0.86, forecast error -0.18%, runup -0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.AMT Median projection -1.78, forecast error +0.22%, runup +0.22%, drawdown -0.22%US.PLTR Median projection -1.14, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.CCI Median projection -1.54, forecast error +1.21%, runup +1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.STZ Median projection -0.69, forecast error +3.21%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.CTAS Median projection -0.28, forecast error +4.10%, runup +4.10%, drawdown -4.10%US.CCI Median projection -1.1, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.KDP Median projection -1.06, forecast error +5.43%, runup +5.43%, drawdown -5.43%US.MPC Median projection -1.52, forecast error +1.75%, runup +1.75%, drawdown -1.75%US.ELV Median projection -0.82, forecast error +1.52%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.V Median projection -1.33, forecast error +2.98%, runup +2.98%, drawdown -2.98%US.UNH Median projection 0.83, forecast error +5.44%, runup +5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.CTAS Median projection -0.69, forecast error +2.45%, runup +2.45%, drawdown -2.45%US.FAST Median projection -1.5, forecast error -0.38%, runup -0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.DG Median projection -0.68, forecast error +3.24%, runup +3.24%, drawdown -3.24%US.CL Median projection -0.82, forecast error +1.48%, runup +1.48%, drawdown -1.48%US.TRV Median projection -2.39, forecast error +5.47%, runup +5.47%, drawdown -5.47%US.WSM Median projection 0.08, forecast error +0.70%, runup +0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.BLK Median projection -2.37, forecast error +3.07%, runup +3.07%, drawdown -3.07%US.AMGN Median projection -0.25, forecast error +1.38%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.EOG Median projection -1.18, forecast error +1.10%, runup +1.10%, drawdown -1.10%US.TRV Median projection -2.28, forecast error +4.70%, runup +4.70%, drawdown -4.70%US.APA Median projection -0.4, forecast error +1.38%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.EXE Median projection -1.33, forecast error +0.71%, runup +0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.APA Median projection 0.07, forecast error -0.71%, runup -0.71%, drawdown -0.71%US.DVN Median projection 0.13, forecast error -3.55%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.CASY Median projection 0.68, forecast error +2.19%, runup +2.19%, drawdown -2.19%US.MNST Median projection 0.96, forecast error +0.11%, runup +0.11%, drawdown -0.11%US.HAS Median projection -1.51, forecast error +8.74%, runup +8.74%, drawdown -8.74%US.FOXA Median projection -0.43, forecast error -0.17%, runup -0.17%, drawdown -0.17%US.IT Median projection -0.73, forecast error +5.57%, runup +5.57%, drawdown -5.57%US.NOC Median projection -1.37, forecast error +4.64%, runup +4.64%, drawdown -4.64%US.HON Median projection -0.44, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.NDAQ Median projection -1.04, forecast error +2.07%, runup +2.07%, drawdown -2.07%US.CSX Median projection -0.11, forecast error +1.27%, runup +1.27%, drawdown -1.27%US.ALLE Median projection -1.28, forecast error +3.56%, runup +3.56%, drawdown -3.56% Bucket avg Median projection -2.3, forecast error +0.58%, n 6Bucket avg Median projection -0.9, forecast error +1.10%, n 93Bucket avg Median projection 0.6, forecast error +0.79%, n 21 Corr -0.02 R² 0.0% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +1.02%

Calibration ranking

Ranked by a composite Calibration score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors Calibration score
#1 3D 40 2.73% 3.22% +1.02% 41.7% 120 2.541
#2 3D 500 2.74% 3.26% +1.09% 42.5% 120 2.568
#3 3D 80 2.76% 3.3% +1.14% 43.3% 120 2.598
#4 3D 320 2.78% 3.28% +1.12% 43.3% 120 2.598
#5 3D 120 2.77% 3.28% +1.16% 43.3% 120 2.599
#6 3D 160 2.76% 3.3% +1.14% 42.5% 120 2.6
#7 3D 240 2.81% 3.31% +1.14% 41.7% 120 2.63
#8 5D 500 3.47% 4.4% +1.05% 40.9% 115 3.33
#9 5D 160 3.37% 4.56% +1.14% 41.7% 115 3.348
#10 5D 320 3.46% 4.45% +1.14% 41.7% 115 3.354
#11 5D 40 3.42% 4.62% +0.90% 36.5% 115 3.371
#12 5D 80 3.42% 4.6% +1.05% 40.9% 115 3.375
#13 5D 240 3.45% 4.52% +1.14% 40% 115 3.378
#14 5D 120 3.52% 4.54% +1.10% 41.7% 115 3.41
#15 10D 320 5.14% 6.99% -0.67% 40.8% 98 5.015
#16 10D 500 5.2% 6.91% -0.68% 41.8% 98 5.016
#17 10D 120 5.06% 7.21% -0.71% 40.8% 98 5.058
#18 10D 160 5.17% 7.12% -0.66% 39.8% 98 5.077
#19 10D 240 5.31% 7.05% -0.66% 39.8% 98 5.122
#20 10D 80 5.54% 7.34% -0.80% 39.8% 98 5.36
#21 10D 40 5.71% 7.53% -0.87% 36.7% 98 5.529
#22 15D 320 7.55% 9.41% -3.44% 36.4% 77 7.494
#23 15D 160 7.49% 9.55% -3.39% 33.8% 77 7.512
#24 15D 500 7.8% 9.39% -3.42% 36.4% 77 7.609
#25 15D 240 7.76% 9.55% -3.46% 36.4% 77 7.651
#26 15D 120 7.93% 9.71% -3.57% 36.4% 77 7.808
#27 20D 40 8.36% 9.88% -3.25% 38.3% 60 8.03
#28 15D 80 8.24% 10% -3.86% 36.4% 77 8.108
#29 20D 80 8.68% 9.81% -3.24% 36.7% 60 8.168
#30 15D 40 8.57% 10.24% -3.96% 39% 77 8.365