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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-09-28
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-28
Window 2026-07-21 → 2026-09-23
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年9月29日 上午7:54 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=40

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-07-21 → 2026-09-23 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-09-28 · computed at: 2026年9月29日 上午7:54 HKT

Median abs error2.49%
Mean abs error3.75%
Bias+0.26%
Inside P25/P7546.7%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.49%
Bias +0.26%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.6%
Bias +0.29%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.66%
Bias +0.12%
P25/P75 hit 42.5%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.65%
Bias +0.25%
P25/P75 hit 44.2%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.75%
Bias +0.14%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.71%
Bias +0.29%
P25/P75 hit 45.8%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.79%
Bias +0.16%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.01%
Bias +0.09%
P25/P75 hit 47.4%
n 116
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 2.95%
Bias +0.21%
P25/P75 hit 48.3%
n 116
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3%
Bias +0.29%
P25/P75 hit 46.6%
n 116
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.17%
Bias +0.38%
P25/P75 hit 47.4%
n 116
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=40
Median abs 2.96%
Bias +0.61%
P25/P75 hit 43.1%
n 116
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=40: median projection vs actual return

-6 -2 2 -22.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.MMM Median projection -1.25, actual return +1.09%, runup +2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.EFX Median projection 1.01, actual return -0.27%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.EOG Median projection -0.41, actual return +2.06%, runup +2.47%, drawdown -2.47%US.HAS Median projection -1.04, actual return +0.01%, runup +1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.WAB Median projection -1, actual return +3.76%, runup +4.76%, drawdown -4.76%US.PCAR Median projection -1, actual return +1.78%, runup +2.78%, drawdown -2.78%US.TRV Median projection 0.29, actual return +4.91%, runup +4.62%, drawdown -4.62%US.T Median projection -1.72, actual return +5.99%, runup +7.71%, drawdown -7.71%US.RTX Median projection -1.04, actual return +4.50%, runup +5.54%, drawdown -5.54%US.DGX Median projection -1.02, actual return +3.53%, runup +4.55%, drawdown -4.55%US.CSX Median projection -0.81, actual return -3.73%, runup -2.92%, drawdown -2.92%US.NSC Median projection -1.25, actual return -2.79%, runup -1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.PKG Median projection -1.04, actual return -1.95%, runup -0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.WAB Median projection -1.25, actual return -3.55%, runup -2.30%, drawdown -2.30%US.SLB Median projection -0.94, actual return -6.60%, runup -5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.IP Median projection -1.71, actual return +1.14%, runup +2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.UHS Median projection -0.75, actual return +1.34%, runup +2.09%, drawdown -2.09%US.SHW Median projection -1.06, actual return -3.79%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.ITW Median projection -0.81, actual return -2.78%, runup -1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.IQV Median projection -0.75, actual return -3.26%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.BXP Median projection -0.48, actual return -3.51%, runup -3.03%, drawdown -3.03%US.GRMN Median projection -1, actual return +3.37%, runup +4.37%, drawdown -4.37%US.GEHC Median projection -0.43, actual return -3.02%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.ADP Median projection -1, actual return -1.31%, runup -0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.WTW Median projection 0.15, actual return +1.07%, runup +0.92%, drawdown -0.92%US.BAX Median projection -1.18, actual return +5.98%, runup +7.16%, drawdown -7.16%US.MSFT Median projection -4.7, actual return +9.25%, runup +13.95%, drawdown -13.95%US.CMG Median projection -0.94, actual return -12.20%, runup -11.26%, drawdown -11.26%US.REGN Median projection -0.87, actual return +0.78%, runup +1.65%, drawdown -1.65%US.CBOE Median projection -1.23, actual return -8.21%, runup -6.98%, drawdown -6.98%US.DXCM Median projection -0.87, actual return -0.95%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.AMZN Median projection -1.02, actual return +0.39%, runup +1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.RMD Median projection -0.39, actual return -5.02%, runup -4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.FSLR Median projection -4.44, actual return +2.64%, runup +7.08%, drawdown -7.08%US.PLTR Median projection -4.61, actual return +5.75%, runup +10.36%, drawdown -10.36%US.ZBRA Median projection -4.44, actual return +2.08%, runup +6.52%, drawdown -6.52%US.AIZ Median projection -0.04, actual return -4.76%, runup -4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.EMR Median projection -0.28, actual return -2.31%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.ZBH Median projection -0.97, actual return -0.39%, runup +0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.ANET Median projection -1.67, actual return -2.93%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.APA Median projection -1.81, actual return -2.49%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.VRTX Median projection -0.01, actual return -1.43%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.EXE Median projection -0.65, actual return -2.95%, runup -2.30%, drawdown -2.30%US.ABNB Median projection -0.36, actual return +0.23%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.TER Median projection -1.17, actual return -13.54%, runup -12.37%, drawdown -12.37%US.PSX Median projection -0.35, actual return -0.23%, runup +0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.DVN Median projection -1.35, actual return +3.64%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.LITE Median projection -1.17, actual return -9.25%, runup -8.08%, drawdown -8.08%US.TRGP Median projection -0.4, actual return +0.45%, runup +0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.MPC Median projection 0.37, actual return -1.50%, runup -1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.EOG Median projection -0.85, actual return +2.93%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.OKE Median projection 0.26, actual return -3.85%, runup -4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, actual return -1.01%, runup -0.61%, drawdown -0.61%US.MRNA Median projection -0.46, actual return -20.35%, runup -19.89%, drawdown -19.89%US.CSGP Median projection -0.24, actual return -2.64%, runup -2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.TGT Median projection -0.41, actual return +6.85%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.EQR Median projection 1.2, actual return -11.06%, runup -12.26%, drawdown -12.26%US.EL Median projection -1.59, actual return +3.06%, runup +4.65%, drawdown -4.65%US.RVTY Median projection -0.26, actual return +1.28%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.HOOD Median projection -1.65, actual return +0.38%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.FCX Median projection -1.15, actual return +3.05%, runup +4.20%, drawdown -4.20%US.V Median projection -0.62, actual return -0.72%, runup -0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.FCX Median projection 0.15, actual return +0.80%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.TGT Median projection -0.37, actual return -2.33%, runup -1.96%, drawdown -1.96%US.EL Median projection -0.34, actual return +2.00%, runup +2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, actual return -5.18%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.RMD Median projection -0.85, actual return +1.58%, runup +2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.FCX Median projection -0.17, actual return -4.33%, runup -4.16%, drawdown -4.16%US.HOOD Median projection -0.75, actual return -6.99%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24%US.EXPD Median projection -0.04, actual return -0.28%, runup -0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.RVTY Median projection -0.19, actual return +1.84%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.GEN Median projection 0.47, actual return +4.59%, runup +4.12%, drawdown -4.12%US.SJM Median projection -0.18, actual return +0.20%, runup +0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.SATS Median projection 0.49, actual return -0.50%, runup -0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.NOW Median projection -1.59, actual return -5.52%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.CRM Median projection 0.16, actual return +0.36%, runup +0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.GEN Median projection -1.14, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.05%, drawdown -0.05%US.SLB Median projection -0.12, actual return +1.40%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.HAL Median projection -0.38, actual return +1.19%, runup +1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.SLB Median projection -2.45, actual return -4.48%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.QCOM Median projection 0.17, actual return -1.12%, runup -1.29%, drawdown -1.29%US.NOW Median projection -1.88, actual return -1.62%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.SATS Median projection 0.89, actual return +7.76%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.PFG Median projection -1.06, actual return -3.79%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.ELV Median projection -0.41, actual return -4.31%, runup -3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.HOOD Median projection -2.17, actual return -7.57%, runup -5.40%, drawdown -5.40%US.DELL Median projection -1.39, actual return +3.65%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.SATS Median projection 1.93, actual return +2.28%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.BG Median projection -0.34, actual return -1.19%, runup -0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.SWKS Median projection -1.06, actual return +17.21%, runup +18.27%, drawdown -18.27%US.VLO Median projection 0.26, actual return +1.98%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.ORCL Median projection -0.62, actual return -7.53%, runup -6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.HPE Median projection -0.89, actual return -8.71%, runup -7.82%, drawdown -7.82%US.DELL Median projection -1.17, actual return -0.71%, runup +0.46%, drawdown -0.46%US.SWKS Median projection -1.39, actual return -3.12%, runup -1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.HPQ Median projection -1.35, actual return -7.84%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.BBY Median projection 0.62, actual return -0.28%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CHRW Median projection -1.81, actual return -2.22%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.KR Median projection 0.44, actual return -0.26%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.CRWD Median projection 0.17, actual return +4.38%, runup +4.21%, drawdown -4.21%US.VLO Median projection 1.32, actual return -2.48%, runup -3.80%, drawdown -3.80%US.RVTY Median projection -0.93, actual return -1.47%, runup -0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.UHS Median projection -1.2, actual return -3.57%, runup -2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.TMO Median projection -1.35, actual return +1.59%, runup +2.94%, drawdown -2.94%US.TMO Median projection -0.26, actual return +0.03%, runup +0.29%, drawdown -0.29%US.CRWD Median projection -1.31, actual return +1.77%, runup +3.08%, drawdown -3.08%US.AMD Median projection -0.73, actual return +14.43%, runup +15.16%, drawdown -15.16%US.ARE Median projection -2.08, actual return -4.42%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.AMD Median projection -0.78, actual return +9.79%, runup +10.57%, drawdown -10.57%US.A Median projection 0.83, actual return +5.66%, runup +4.83%, drawdown -4.83%US.FTNT Median projection -1.35, actual return +5.24%, runup +6.59%, drawdown -6.59%US.MPC Median projection -0.32, actual return -8.59%, runup -8.27%, drawdown -8.27%US.AMD Median projection -0.98, actual return +2.23%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.META Median projection -1.38, actual return +4.90%, runup +6.28%, drawdown -6.28%US.INTC Median projection -0.32, actual return +4.61%, runup +4.93%, drawdown -4.93%US.WBD Median projection -1.61, actual return +0.13%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.PLTR Median projection -0.11, actual return -2.25%, runup -2.14%, drawdown -2.14%US.DE Median projection -1.37, actual return -2.80%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.KEYS Median projection -0.7, actual return +1.81%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.WST Median projection -1.31, actual return -0.06%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25% Bucket avg Median projection -4.5, actual return +4.93%, n 4Bucket avg Median projection -2.2, actual return -5.49%, n 3Bucket avg Median projection -0.9, actual return -0.85%, n 94Bucket avg Median projection 0.6, actual return +0.66%, n 19 Corr -0.08 R² 0.7% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: -0.54%

Best setting 3D · n=40: median projection vs forecast error

-6 -2 2 -20.00% 0.00% +20.00% US.MMM Median projection -1.25, forecast error +2.34%, runup +2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.EFX Median projection 1.01, forecast error -1.28%, runup -1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.EOG Median projection -0.41, forecast error +2.47%, runup +2.47%, drawdown -2.47%US.HAS Median projection -1.04, forecast error +1.05%, runup +1.05%, drawdown -1.05%US.WAB Median projection -1, forecast error +4.76%, runup +4.76%, drawdown -4.76%US.PCAR Median projection -1, forecast error +2.78%, runup +2.78%, drawdown -2.78%US.TRV Median projection 0.29, forecast error +4.62%, runup +4.62%, drawdown -4.62%US.T Median projection -1.72, forecast error +7.71%, runup +7.71%, drawdown -7.71%US.RTX Median projection -1.04, forecast error +5.54%, runup +5.54%, drawdown -5.54%US.DGX Median projection -1.02, forecast error +4.55%, runup +4.55%, drawdown -4.55%US.CSX Median projection -0.81, forecast error -2.92%, runup -2.92%, drawdown -2.92%US.NSC Median projection -1.25, forecast error -1.54%, runup -1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.PKG Median projection -1.04, forecast error -0.91%, runup -0.91%, drawdown -0.91%US.WAB Median projection -1.25, forecast error -2.30%, runup -2.30%, drawdown -2.30%US.SLB Median projection -0.94, forecast error -5.66%, runup -5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.IP Median projection -1.71, forecast error +2.85%, runup +2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.UHS Median projection -0.75, forecast error +2.09%, runup +2.09%, drawdown -2.09%US.SHW Median projection -1.06, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.ITW Median projection -0.81, forecast error -1.97%, runup -1.97%, drawdown -1.97%US.IQV Median projection -0.75, forecast error -2.51%, runup -2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.BXP Median projection -0.48, forecast error -3.03%, runup -3.03%, drawdown -3.03%US.GRMN Median projection -1, forecast error +4.37%, runup +4.37%, drawdown -4.37%US.GEHC Median projection -0.43, forecast error -2.59%, runup -2.59%, drawdown -2.59%US.ADP Median projection -1, forecast error -0.31%, runup -0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.WTW Median projection 0.15, forecast error +0.92%, runup +0.92%, drawdown -0.92%US.BAX Median projection -1.18, forecast error +7.16%, runup +7.16%, drawdown -7.16%US.MSFT Median projection -4.7, forecast error +13.95%, runup +13.95%, drawdown -13.95%US.CMG Median projection -0.94, forecast error -11.26%, runup -11.26%, drawdown -11.26%US.REGN Median projection -0.87, forecast error +1.65%, runup +1.65%, drawdown -1.65%US.CBOE Median projection -1.23, forecast error -6.98%, runup -6.98%, drawdown -6.98%US.DXCM Median projection -0.87, forecast error -0.08%, runup -0.08%, drawdown -0.08%US.AMZN Median projection -1.02, forecast error +1.41%, runup +1.41%, drawdown -1.41%US.RMD Median projection -0.39, forecast error -4.63%, runup -4.63%, drawdown -4.63%US.FSLR Median projection -4.44, forecast error +7.08%, runup +7.08%, drawdown -7.08%US.PLTR Median projection -4.61, forecast error +10.36%, runup +10.36%, drawdown -10.36%US.ZBRA Median projection -4.44, forecast error +6.52%, runup +6.52%, drawdown -6.52%US.AIZ Median projection -0.04, forecast error -4.72%, runup -4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.EMR Median projection -0.28, forecast error -2.03%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.ZBH Median projection -0.97, forecast error +0.58%, runup +0.58%, drawdown -0.58%US.ANET Median projection -1.67, forecast error -1.26%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.APA Median projection -1.81, forecast error -0.68%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.VRTX Median projection -0.01, forecast error -1.42%, runup -1.42%, drawdown -1.42%US.EXE Median projection -0.65, forecast error -2.30%, runup -2.30%, drawdown -2.30%US.ABNB Median projection -0.36, forecast error +0.59%, runup +0.59%, drawdown -0.59%US.TER Median projection -1.17, forecast error -12.37%, runup -12.37%, drawdown -12.37%US.PSX Median projection -0.35, forecast error +0.12%, runup +0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.DVN Median projection -1.35, forecast error +4.99%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.LITE Median projection -1.17, forecast error -8.08%, runup -8.08%, drawdown -8.08%US.TRGP Median projection -0.4, forecast error +0.85%, runup +0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.MPC Median projection 0.37, forecast error -1.87%, runup -1.87%, drawdown -1.87%US.EOG Median projection -0.85, forecast error +3.78%, runup +3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.OKE Median projection 0.26, forecast error -4.11%, runup -4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, forecast error -0.61%, runup -0.61%, drawdown -0.61%US.MRNA Median projection -0.46, forecast error -19.89%, runup -19.89%, drawdown -19.89%US.CSGP Median projection -0.24, forecast error -2.40%, runup -2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.TGT Median projection -0.41, forecast error +7.26%, runup +7.26%, drawdown -7.26%US.EQR Median projection 1.2, forecast error -12.26%, runup -12.26%, drawdown -12.26%US.EL Median projection -1.59, forecast error +4.65%, runup +4.65%, drawdown -4.65%US.RVTY Median projection -0.26, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.HOOD Median projection -1.65, forecast error +2.03%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.FCX Median projection -1.15, forecast error +4.20%, runup +4.20%, drawdown -4.20%US.V Median projection -0.62, forecast error -0.10%, runup -0.10%, drawdown -0.10%US.FCX Median projection 0.15, forecast error +0.65%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.TGT Median projection -0.37, forecast error -1.96%, runup -1.96%, drawdown -1.96%US.EL Median projection -0.34, forecast error +2.34%, runup +2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.MRK Median projection -0.4, forecast error -4.78%, runup -4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.RMD Median projection -0.85, forecast error +2.43%, runup +2.43%, drawdown -2.43%US.FCX Median projection -0.17, forecast error -4.16%, runup -4.16%, drawdown -4.16%US.HOOD Median projection -0.75, forecast error -6.24%, runup -6.24%, drawdown -6.24%US.EXPD Median projection -0.04, forecast error -0.24%, runup -0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.RVTY Median projection -0.19, forecast error +2.03%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.GEN Median projection 0.47, forecast error +4.12%, runup +4.12%, drawdown -4.12%US.SJM Median projection -0.18, forecast error +0.38%, runup +0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.SATS Median projection 0.49, forecast error -0.99%, runup -0.99%, drawdown -0.99%US.NOW Median projection -1.59, forecast error -3.93%, runup -3.93%, drawdown -3.93%US.CRM Median projection 0.16, forecast error +0.20%, runup +0.20%, drawdown -0.20%US.GEN Median projection -1.14, forecast error -0.05%, runup -0.05%, drawdown -0.05%US.SLB Median projection -0.12, forecast error +1.52%, runup +1.52%, drawdown -1.52%US.HAL Median projection -0.38, forecast error +1.57%, runup +1.57%, drawdown -1.57%US.SLB Median projection -2.45, forecast error -2.03%, runup -2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.QCOM Median projection 0.17, forecast error -1.29%, runup -1.29%, drawdown -1.29%US.NOW Median projection -1.88, forecast error +0.26%, runup +0.26%, drawdown -0.26%US.SATS Median projection 0.89, forecast error +6.87%, runup +6.87%, drawdown -6.87%US.PFG Median projection -1.06, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.ELV Median projection -0.41, forecast error -3.90%, runup -3.90%, drawdown -3.90%US.HOOD Median projection -2.17, forecast error -5.40%, runup -5.40%, drawdown -5.40%US.DELL Median projection -1.39, forecast error +5.04%, runup +5.04%, drawdown -5.04%US.SATS Median projection 1.93, forecast error +0.35%, runup +0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.BG Median projection -0.34, forecast error -0.85%, runup -0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.SWKS Median projection -1.06, forecast error +18.27%, runup +18.27%, drawdown -18.27%US.VLO Median projection 0.26, forecast error +1.72%, runup +1.72%, drawdown -1.72%US.ORCL Median projection -0.62, forecast error -6.91%, runup -6.91%, drawdown -6.91%US.HPE Median projection -0.89, forecast error -7.82%, runup -7.82%, drawdown -7.82%US.DELL Median projection -1.17, forecast error +0.46%, runup +0.46%, drawdown -0.46%US.SWKS Median projection -1.39, forecast error -1.73%, runup -1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.HPQ Median projection -1.35, forecast error -6.49%, runup -6.49%, drawdown -6.49%US.BBY Median projection 0.62, forecast error -0.90%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CHRW Median projection -1.81, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.KR Median projection 0.44, forecast error -0.70%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.CRWD Median projection 0.17, forecast error +4.21%, runup +4.21%, drawdown -4.21%US.VLO Median projection 1.32, forecast error -3.80%, runup -3.80%, drawdown -3.80%US.RVTY Median projection -0.93, forecast error -0.54%, runup -0.54%, drawdown -0.54%US.UHS Median projection -1.2, forecast error -2.37%, runup -2.37%, drawdown -2.37%US.TMO Median projection -1.35, forecast error +2.94%, runup +2.94%, drawdown -2.94%US.TMO Median projection -0.26, forecast error +0.29%, runup +0.29%, drawdown -0.29%US.CRWD Median projection -1.31, forecast error +3.08%, runup +3.08%, drawdown -3.08%US.AMD Median projection -0.73, forecast error +15.16%, runup +15.16%, drawdown -15.16%US.ARE Median projection -2.08, forecast error -2.34%, runup -2.34%, drawdown -2.34%US.AMD Median projection -0.78, forecast error +10.57%, runup +10.57%, drawdown -10.57%US.A Median projection 0.83, forecast error +4.83%, runup +4.83%, drawdown -4.83%US.FTNT Median projection -1.35, forecast error +6.59%, runup +6.59%, drawdown -6.59%US.MPC Median projection -0.32, forecast error -8.27%, runup -8.27%, drawdown -8.27%US.AMD Median projection -0.98, forecast error +3.21%, runup +3.21%, drawdown -3.21%US.META Median projection -1.38, forecast error +6.28%, runup +6.28%, drawdown -6.28%US.INTC Median projection -0.32, forecast error +4.93%, runup +4.93%, drawdown -4.93%US.WBD Median projection -1.61, forecast error +1.74%, runup +1.74%, drawdown -1.74%US.PLTR Median projection -0.11, forecast error -2.14%, runup -2.14%, drawdown -2.14%US.DE Median projection -1.37, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.KEYS Median projection -0.7, forecast error +2.51%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.WST Median projection -1.31, forecast error +1.25%, runup +1.25%, drawdown -1.25% Bucket avg Median projection -4.5, forecast error +9.48%, n 4Bucket avg Median projection -2.2, forecast error -3.26%, n 3Bucket avg Median projection -0.9, forecast error +0.02%, n 94Bucket avg Median projection 0.6, forecast error +0.07%, n 19 Corr -0.28 R² 7.7% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.26%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 40 2.49% 3.75% +0.26% 46.7% 120 2.48
#2 3D 80 2.6% 3.7% +0.29% 46.7% 120 2.522
#3 3D 500 2.66% 3.66% +0.12% 42.5% 120 2.523
#4 3D 160 2.65% 3.72% +0.25% 44.2% 120 2.554
#5 3D 320 2.75% 3.67% +0.14% 41.7% 120 2.576
#6 3D 120 2.71% 3.7% +0.29% 45.8% 120 2.579
#7 3D 240 2.79% 3.7% +0.16% 43.3% 120 2.606
#8 5D 500 3.01% 4.38% +0.09% 47.4% 116 2.933
#9 5D 320 2.95% 4.43% +0.21% 48.3% 116 2.936
#10 5D 240 3% 4.47% +0.29% 46.6% 116 2.992
#11 5D 160 3.17% 4.52% +0.38% 47.4% 116 3.105
#12 5D 40 2.96% 4.74% +0.61% 43.1% 116 3.123
#13 5D 80 3.17% 4.58% +0.54% 46.6% 116 3.153
#14 5D 120 3.28% 4.51% +0.40% 45.7% 116 3.164
#15 10D 500 3.45% 4.62% -0.01% 61% 100 3.191
#16 10D 320 3.45% 4.73% +0.25% 59% 100 3.271
#17 10D 240 3.5% 4.74% +0.36% 60% 100 3.313
#18 10D 120 3.5% 4.87% +0.50% 61% 100 3.377
#19 10D 160 3.69% 4.91% +0.48% 57% 100 3.493
#20 10D 80 3.71% 4.99% +0.73% 56% 100 3.571
#21 10D 40 3.57% 5.21% +0.94% 51% 100 3.622
#22 15D 500 4.45% 5.46% -0.40% 55.8% 86 4.057
#23 15D 320 4.66% 5.59% +0.06% 54.7% 86 4.159
#24 20D 160 4.15% 6.18% +0.75% 64.9% 77 4.188
#25 20D 240 4.63% 6.12% +0.25% 58.4% 77 4.349
#26 15D 240 4.98% 5.77% +0.31% 55.8% 86 4.417
#27 20D 500 4.54% 6.27% -0.76% 55.8% 77 4.439
#28 20D 320 4.95% 6.15% -0.10% 57.1% 77 4.5
#29 15D 160 4.97% 5.97% +0.65% 53.5% 86 4.538
#30 15D 120 5.06% 5.98% +0.77% 54.7% 86 4.602