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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-04-28
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-28
Window 2026-03-12 → 2026-04-23
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:36 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=120

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-12 → 2026-04-23 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-04-28 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:36 HKT

Median abs error2.6%
Mean abs error3.87%
Bias+0.49%
Inside P25/P7550%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 2.6%
Bias +0.49%
P25/P75 hit 50%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 2.7%
Bias +0.47%
P25/P75 hit 47.5%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 2.66%
Bias +0.60%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 2.84%
Bias +0.45%
P25/P75 hit 47.5%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 2.8%
Bias +0.45%
P25/P75 hit 45%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.86%
Bias +0.46%
P25/P75 hit 45.8%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 2.97%
Bias +0.62%
P25/P75 hit 46.7%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.97%
Bias +0.86%
P25/P75 hit 41.1%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 4.05%
Bias +0.79%
P25/P75 hit 40.2%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 4.06%
Bias +0.75%
P25/P75 hit 36.6%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 4.01%
Bias +1.05%
P25/P75 hit 38.4%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 4.09%
Bias +1.17%
P25/P75 hit 36.6%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=120: median projection vs actual return

-2 1 4 -14.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.CF Median projection -0.08, actual return -9.35%, runup -9.27%, drawdown -9.27%US.BG Median projection 0.62, actual return +0.10%, runup -0.52%, drawdown -0.52%US.ADM Median projection -0.11, actual return -0.52%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.LYB Median projection -0.19, actual return -4.21%, runup -4.02%, drawdown -4.02%US.MOS Median projection 1.66, actual return -5.22%, runup -6.88%, drawdown -6.88%US.CF Median projection 0.16, actual return -2.19%, runup -2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.ADM Median projection -0.34, actual return -1.54%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.LNT Median projection 0.42, actual return -1.42%, runup -1.84%, drawdown -1.84%US.SNDK Median projection 0.16, actual return +9.73%, runup +9.57%, drawdown -9.57%US.DVN Median projection 0.88, actual return +4.59%, runup +3.71%, drawdown -3.71%US.ED Median projection 0.16, actual return -3.27%, runup -3.43%, drawdown -3.43%US.MU Median projection -0.34, actual return +0.56%, runup +0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.SNDK Median projection -0.11, actual return -1.45%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.WDC Median projection -0.69, actual return -6.60%, runup -5.91%, drawdown -5.91%US.MU Median projection -0.11, actual return -8.40%, runup -8.29%, drawdown -8.29%US.DVN Median projection 0.81, actual return +2.61%, runup +1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.CIEN Median projection -0.28, actual return +5.88%, runup +6.16%, drawdown -6.16%US.DVN Median projection 0.84, actual return +0.69%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.JBL Median projection 0.53, actual return +2.93%, runup +2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.SNDK Median projection -0.44, actual return -6.79%, runup -6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.SNDK Median projection -0.68, actual return -9.02%, runup -8.34%, drawdown -8.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.74, actual return +4.07%, runup +4.81%, drawdown -4.81%US.STX Median projection -0.75, actual return -2.22%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.JBL Median projection 0.57, actual return +4.55%, runup +3.98%, drawdown -3.98%US.APA Median projection -0.01, actual return +5.65%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.LITE Median projection 0.08, actual return +10.03%, runup +9.95%, drawdown -9.95%US.STX Median projection -0.3, actual return +0.48%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.COP Median projection 0.8, actual return +1.58%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.CVX Median projection 0.94, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.JBL Median projection -0.37, actual return -0.79%, runup -0.42%, drawdown -0.42%US.AKAM Median projection -0.39, actual return +2.46%, runup +2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.HAL Median projection 0.9, actual return +3.41%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.FLEX Median projection -0.22, actual return -6.22%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.DELL Median projection -0.67, actual return -2.88%, runup -2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.LITE Median projection -0.38, actual return -12.38%, runup -12.00%, drawdown -12.00%US.HPE Median projection -0.97, actual return +0.17%, runup +1.14%, drawdown -1.14%US.HPE Median projection 0.62, actual return -12.30%, runup -12.92%, drawdown -12.92%US.CASY Median projection -0.16, actual return -1.32%, runup -1.16%, drawdown -1.16%US.JBL Median projection -1.16, actual return -12.63%, runup -11.47%, drawdown -11.47%US.VRSN Median projection -0.12, actual return -0.81%, runup -0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.APA Median projection 1.09, actual return -0.84%, runup -1.93%, drawdown -1.93%US.BF.B Median projection 0.3, actual return +2.72%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.FANG Median projection 1.27, actual return -2.18%, runup -3.45%, drawdown -3.45%US.OXY Median projection 1.34, actual return +0.99%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.XOM Median projection 1.05, actual return -5.97%, runup -7.02%, drawdown -7.02%US.ETR Median projection 0.12, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.25%, drawdown -3.25%US.APA Median projection 1.33, actual return -6.85%, runup -8.18%, drawdown -8.18%US.BG Median projection 0.17, actual return -0.31%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.CTVA Median projection 0.57, actual return +3.03%, runup +2.46%, drawdown -2.46%US.NWS Median projection 0.16, actual return -0.74%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CF Median projection 0.45, actual return -5.55%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.LYB Median projection 1.69, actual return -3.37%, runup -5.06%, drawdown -5.06%US.NWSA Median projection 0.05, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.FDS Median projection 0.51, actual return +6.43%, runup +5.92%, drawdown -5.92%US.CASY Median projection -0.62, actual return +2.74%, runup +3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.NWS Median projection -0.09, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.ETR Median projection 0.02, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CASY Median projection -0.81, actual return +0.63%, runup +1.44%, drawdown -1.44%US.FDS Median projection -0.42, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.64%, drawdown -1.64%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.LITE Median projection -0.85, actual return +8.36%, runup +9.21%, drawdown -9.21%US.INTC Median projection -1.14, actual return +17.01%, runup +18.15%, drawdown -18.15%US.SBAC Median projection 0.1, actual return +7.19%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.CIEN Median projection -0.85, actual return +10.33%, runup +11.18%, drawdown -11.18%US.STX Median projection -0.08, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.55%, drawdown -10.55%US.VRSN Median projection -0.67, actual return -1.69%, runup -1.02%, drawdown -1.02%US.MRVL Median projection -0.8, actual return +9.52%, runup +10.32%, drawdown -10.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.63, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.47%, drawdown -3.47%US.JBL Median projection -0.24, actual return +9.77%, runup +10.01%, drawdown -10.01%US.UNH Median projection -0.87, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.PNC Median projection -0.96, actual return +3.37%, runup +4.33%, drawdown -4.33%US.HUM Median projection -0.85, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.69%, drawdown -1.69%US.TER Median projection -0.73, actual return +3.30%, runup +4.03%, drawdown -4.03%US.JBL Median projection -1.02, actual return +6.35%, runup +7.37%, drawdown -7.37%US.MPWR Median projection -0.8, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.32%, drawdown -5.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.66, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.36%, drawdown -1.36%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.66, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.BF.B Median projection -1.01, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.JBL Median projection -0.36, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.MRVL Median projection -1.14, actual return +4.76%, runup +5.90%, drawdown -5.90%US.LRCX Median projection -0.28, actual return +0.57%, runup +0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.STZ Median projection -0.96, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.36%, drawdown -0.36%US.JBL Median projection -0.73, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.55%, drawdown -2.55%US.SNDK Median projection 1.5, actual return -3.47%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.JBL Median projection 1.53, actual return +1.55%, runup +0.02%, drawdown -0.02%US.BLK Median projection -0.26, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.39%, drawdown -0.39%US.DELL Median projection -0.12, actual return +1.74%, runup +1.86%, drawdown -1.86%US.A Median projection -0.83, actual return +1.23%, runup +2.06%, drawdown -2.06%US.JBL Median projection 2.02, actual return +5.14%, runup +3.12%, drawdown -3.12%US.AMZN Median projection -0.78, actual return +0.62%, runup +1.40%, drawdown -1.40%US.BLK Median projection -0.57, actual return -0.23%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.DASH Median projection -0.66, actual return +5.48%, runup +6.14%, drawdown -6.14%US.HOOD Median projection -0.46, actual return +4.53%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.MSFT Median projection 0.85, actual return +1.67%, runup +0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.ORCL Median projection 1.85, actual return +4.58%, runup +2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.AMD Median projection 1.57, actual return +2.24%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.ON Median projection 0.56, actual return +8.73%, runup +8.17%, drawdown -8.17%US.ALB Median projection -0.11, actual return -7.98%, runup -7.87%, drawdown -7.87%US.CHRW Median projection -0.79, actual return +1.12%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.JBL Median projection 2.15, actual return +4.57%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.ADI Median projection 0.95, actual return +2.68%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.EXPE Median projection 0.73, actual return -0.47%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.A Median projection -0.68, actual return -1.15%, runup -0.47%, drawdown -0.47%US.JBL Median projection 1.11, actual return +2.50%, runup +1.39%, drawdown -1.39%US.ADI Median projection 1.39, actual return +5.99%, runup +4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.TGT Median projection -0.17, actual return -0.01%, runup +0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.STLD Median projection 0.1, actual return +7.50%, runup +7.40%, drawdown -7.40%US.STLD Median projection 0.12, actual return +2.99%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NTRS Median projection 0.32, actual return -4.50%, runup -4.82%, drawdown -4.82%US.HPQ Median projection 1.78, actual return -6.16%, runup -7.94%, drawdown -7.94%US.NTAP Median projection 1.02, actual return -2.76%, runup -3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.GEV Median projection 0.09, actual return -0.65%, runup -0.74%, drawdown -0.74%US.MAS Median projection -0.11, actual return +0.38%, runup +0.49%, drawdown -0.49%US.ISRG Median projection 0.12, actual return -2.61%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.STLD Median projection 0.02, actual return -1.06%, runup -1.08%, drawdown -1.08%US.WST Median projection 0.15, actual return -5.67%, runup -5.82%, drawdown -5.82%US.TXN Median projection 1.11, actual return -6.10%, runup -7.21%, drawdown -7.21%US.DOV Median projection -0.46, actual return -1.76%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CSX Median projection -0.46, actual return -2.06%, runup -1.60%, drawdown -1.60% Bucket avg Median projection -0.5, actual return +0.53%, n 66Bucket avg Median projection 0.7, actual return +0.39%, n 52Bucket avg Median projection 2.1, actual return +4.86%, n 2 Corr -0.07 R² 0.5% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.54%

Best setting 3D · n=120: median projection vs forecast error

-2 1 4 -14.00% 0.00% +20.00% US.CF Median projection -0.08, forecast error -9.27%, runup -9.27%, drawdown -9.27%US.BG Median projection 0.62, forecast error -0.52%, runup -0.52%, drawdown -0.52%US.ADM Median projection -0.11, forecast error -0.41%, runup -0.41%, drawdown -0.41%US.LYB Median projection -0.19, forecast error -4.02%, runup -4.02%, drawdown -4.02%US.MOS Median projection 1.66, forecast error -6.88%, runup -6.88%, drawdown -6.88%US.CF Median projection 0.16, forecast error -2.35%, runup -2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.ADM Median projection -0.34, forecast error -1.20%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.LNT Median projection 0.42, forecast error -1.84%, runup -1.84%, drawdown -1.84%US.SNDK Median projection 0.16, forecast error +9.57%, runup +9.57%, drawdown -9.57%US.DVN Median projection 0.88, forecast error +3.71%, runup +3.71%, drawdown -3.71%US.ED Median projection 0.16, forecast error -3.43%, runup -3.43%, drawdown -3.43%US.MU Median projection -0.34, forecast error +0.90%, runup +0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.SNDK Median projection -0.11, forecast error -1.34%, runup -1.34%, drawdown -1.34%US.WDC Median projection -0.69, forecast error -5.91%, runup -5.91%, drawdown -5.91%US.MU Median projection -0.11, forecast error -8.29%, runup -8.29%, drawdown -8.29%US.DVN Median projection 0.81, forecast error +1.80%, runup +1.80%, drawdown -1.80%US.CIEN Median projection -0.28, forecast error +6.16%, runup +6.16%, drawdown -6.16%US.DVN Median projection 0.84, forecast error -0.15%, runup -0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.JBL Median projection 0.53, forecast error +2.40%, runup +2.40%, drawdown -2.40%US.SNDK Median projection -0.44, forecast error -6.35%, runup -6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.SNDK Median projection -0.68, forecast error -8.34%, runup -8.34%, drawdown -8.34%US.CIEN Median projection -0.74, forecast error +4.81%, runup +4.81%, drawdown -4.81%US.STX Median projection -0.75, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.JBL Median projection 0.57, forecast error +3.98%, runup +3.98%, drawdown -3.98%US.APA Median projection -0.01, forecast error +5.66%, runup +5.66%, drawdown -5.66%US.LITE Median projection 0.08, forecast error +9.95%, runup +9.95%, drawdown -9.95%US.STX Median projection -0.3, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.COP Median projection 0.8, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.CVX Median projection 0.94, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.JBL Median projection -0.37, forecast error -0.42%, runup -0.42%, drawdown -0.42%US.AKAM Median projection -0.39, forecast error +2.85%, runup +2.85%, drawdown -2.85%US.HAL Median projection 0.9, forecast error +2.51%, runup +2.51%, drawdown -2.51%US.FLEX Median projection -0.22, forecast error -6.00%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.DELL Median projection -0.67, forecast error -2.21%, runup -2.21%, drawdown -2.21%US.LITE Median projection -0.38, forecast error -12.00%, runup -12.00%, drawdown -12.00%US.HPE Median projection -0.97, forecast error +1.14%, runup +1.14%, drawdown -1.14%US.HPE Median projection 0.62, forecast error -12.92%, runup -12.92%, drawdown -12.92%US.CASY Median projection -0.16, forecast error -1.16%, runup -1.16%, drawdown -1.16%US.JBL Median projection -1.16, forecast error -11.47%, runup -11.47%, drawdown -11.47%US.VRSN Median projection -0.12, forecast error -0.69%, runup -0.69%, drawdown -0.69%US.APA Median projection 1.09, forecast error -1.93%, runup -1.93%, drawdown -1.93%US.BF.B Median projection 0.3, forecast error +2.42%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.FANG Median projection 1.27, forecast error -3.45%, runup -3.45%, drawdown -3.45%US.OXY Median projection 1.34, forecast error -0.35%, runup -0.35%, drawdown -0.35%US.XOM Median projection 1.05, forecast error -7.02%, runup -7.02%, drawdown -7.02%US.ETR Median projection 0.12, forecast error +3.25%, runup +3.25%, drawdown -3.25%US.APA Median projection 1.33, forecast error -8.18%, runup -8.18%, drawdown -8.18%US.BG Median projection 0.17, forecast error -0.48%, runup -0.48%, drawdown -0.48%US.CTVA Median projection 0.57, forecast error +2.46%, runup +2.46%, drawdown -2.46%US.NWS Median projection 0.16, forecast error -0.90%, runup -0.90%, drawdown -0.90%US.CF Median projection 0.45, forecast error -6.00%, runup -6.00%, drawdown -6.00%US.LYB Median projection 1.69, forecast error -5.06%, runup -5.06%, drawdown -5.06%US.NWSA Median projection 0.05, forecast error -1.90%, runup -1.90%, drawdown -1.90%US.FDS Median projection 0.51, forecast error +5.92%, runup +5.92%, drawdown -5.92%US.CASY Median projection -0.62, forecast error +3.36%, runup +3.36%, drawdown -3.36%US.NWS Median projection -0.09, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.ETR Median projection 0.02, forecast error +0.24%, runup +0.24%, drawdown -0.24%US.CASY Median projection -0.81, forecast error +1.44%, runup +1.44%, drawdown -1.44%US.FDS Median projection -0.42, forecast error +1.64%, runup +1.64%, drawdown -1.64%US.MRVL Median projection -0.08, forecast error +2.58%, runup +2.58%, drawdown -2.58%US.LITE Median projection -0.85, forecast error +9.21%, runup +9.21%, drawdown -9.21%US.INTC Median projection -1.14, forecast error +18.15%, runup +18.15%, drawdown -18.15%US.SBAC Median projection 0.1, forecast error +7.09%, runup +7.09%, drawdown -7.09%US.CIEN Median projection -0.85, forecast error +11.18%, runup +11.18%, drawdown -11.18%US.STX Median projection -0.08, forecast error +10.55%, runup +10.55%, drawdown -10.55%US.VRSN Median projection -0.67, forecast error -1.02%, runup -1.02%, drawdown -1.02%US.MRVL Median projection -0.8, forecast error +10.32%, runup +10.32%, drawdown -10.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.63, forecast error +3.47%, runup +3.47%, drawdown -3.47%US.JBL Median projection -0.24, forecast error +10.01%, runup +10.01%, drawdown -10.01%US.UNH Median projection -0.87, forecast error -0.23%, runup -0.23%, drawdown -0.23%US.PNC Median projection -0.96, forecast error +4.33%, runup +4.33%, drawdown -4.33%US.HUM Median projection -0.85, forecast error -1.69%, runup -1.69%, drawdown -1.69%US.TER Median projection -0.73, forecast error +4.03%, runup +4.03%, drawdown -4.03%US.JBL Median projection -1.02, forecast error +7.37%, runup +7.37%, drawdown -7.37%US.MPWR Median projection -0.8, forecast error +5.32%, runup +5.32%, drawdown -5.32%US.SBAC Median projection -0.66, forecast error +1.36%, runup +1.36%, drawdown -1.36%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +7.24%, runup +7.24%, drawdown -7.24%US.STZ Median projection -0.66, forecast error +1.54%, runup +1.54%, drawdown -1.54%US.BF.B Median projection -1.01, forecast error -2.62%, runup -2.62%, drawdown -2.62%US.JBL Median projection -0.36, forecast error +4.78%, runup +4.78%, drawdown -4.78%US.MRVL Median projection -1.14, forecast error +5.90%, runup +5.90%, drawdown -5.90%US.LRCX Median projection -0.28, forecast error +0.85%, runup +0.85%, drawdown -0.85%US.STZ Median projection -0.96, forecast error -0.36%, runup -0.36%, drawdown -0.36%US.JBL Median projection -0.73, forecast error +2.55%, runup +2.55%, drawdown -2.55%US.SNDK Median projection 1.5, forecast error -4.97%, runup -4.97%, drawdown -4.97%US.JBL Median projection 1.53, forecast error +0.02%, runup +0.02%, drawdown -0.02%US.BLK Median projection -0.26, forecast error +0.39%, runup +0.39%, drawdown -0.39%US.DELL Median projection -0.12, forecast error +1.86%, runup +1.86%, drawdown -1.86%US.A Median projection -0.83, forecast error +2.06%, runup +2.06%, drawdown -2.06%US.JBL Median projection 2.02, forecast error +3.12%, runup +3.12%, drawdown -3.12%US.AMZN Median projection -0.78, forecast error +1.40%, runup +1.40%, drawdown -1.40%US.BLK Median projection -0.57, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.DASH Median projection -0.66, forecast error +6.14%, runup +6.14%, drawdown -6.14%US.HOOD Median projection -0.46, forecast error +4.99%, runup +4.99%, drawdown -4.99%US.MSFT Median projection 0.85, forecast error +0.82%, runup +0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.ORCL Median projection 1.85, forecast error +2.73%, runup +2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.AMD Median projection 1.57, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.ON Median projection 0.56, forecast error +8.17%, runup +8.17%, drawdown -8.17%US.ALB Median projection -0.11, forecast error -7.87%, runup -7.87%, drawdown -7.87%US.CHRW Median projection -0.79, forecast error +1.91%, runup +1.91%, drawdown -1.91%US.JBL Median projection 2.15, forecast error +2.42%, runup +2.42%, drawdown -2.42%US.ADI Median projection 0.95, forecast error +1.73%, runup +1.73%, drawdown -1.73%US.EXPE Median projection 0.73, forecast error -1.20%, runup -1.20%, drawdown -1.20%US.A Median projection -0.68, forecast error -0.47%, runup -0.47%, drawdown -0.47%US.JBL Median projection 1.11, forecast error +1.39%, runup +1.39%, drawdown -1.39%US.ADI Median projection 1.39, forecast error +4.60%, runup +4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.TGT Median projection -0.17, forecast error +0.16%, runup +0.16%, drawdown -0.16%US.STLD Median projection 0.1, forecast error +7.40%, runup +7.40%, drawdown -7.40%US.STLD Median projection 0.12, forecast error +2.87%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.NTRS Median projection 0.32, forecast error -4.82%, runup -4.82%, drawdown -4.82%US.HPQ Median projection 1.78, forecast error -7.94%, runup -7.94%, drawdown -7.94%US.NTAP Median projection 1.02, forecast error -3.78%, runup -3.78%, drawdown -3.78%US.GEV Median projection 0.09, forecast error -0.74%, runup -0.74%, drawdown -0.74%US.MAS Median projection -0.11, forecast error +0.49%, runup +0.49%, drawdown -0.49%US.ISRG Median projection 0.12, forecast error -2.73%, runup -2.73%, drawdown -2.73%US.STLD Median projection 0.02, forecast error -1.08%, runup -1.08%, drawdown -1.08%US.WST Median projection 0.15, forecast error -5.82%, runup -5.82%, drawdown -5.82%US.TXN Median projection 1.11, forecast error -7.21%, runup -7.21%, drawdown -7.21%US.DOV Median projection -0.46, forecast error -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.CSX Median projection -0.46, forecast error -1.60%, runup -1.60%, drawdown -1.60% Bucket avg Median projection -0.5, forecast error +1.07%, n 66Bucket avg Median projection 0.7, forecast error -0.32%, n 52Bucket avg Median projection 2.1, forecast error +2.77%, n 2 Corr -0.23 R² 5.1% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.49%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 120 2.6% 3.87% +0.49% 50% 120 2.603
#2 3D 160 2.7% 3.86% +0.47% 47.5% 120 2.653
#3 3D 80 2.66% 3.97% +0.60% 46.7% 120 2.693
#4 3D 240 2.84% 3.86% +0.45% 47.5% 120 2.72
#5 3D 500 2.8% 3.91% +0.45% 45% 120 2.724
#6 3D 320 2.86% 3.89% +0.46% 45.8% 120 2.746
#7 3D 40 2.97% 4.05% +0.62% 46.7% 120 2.879
#8 5D 240 3.97% 5.78% +0.86% 41.1% 112 4.034
#9 5D 320 4.05% 5.8% +0.79% 40.2% 112 4.073
#10 5D 500 4.06% 5.82% +0.75% 36.6% 112 4.088
#11 5D 160 4.01% 5.89% +1.05% 38.4% 112 4.128
#12 5D 120 4.09% 5.93% +1.17% 36.6% 112 4.204
#13 5D 80 4.24% 6% +1.43% 38.4% 112 4.339
#14 5D 40 4.7% 6.3% +1.44% 33.9% 112 4.686
#15 10D 240 6.97% 9.08% +3.57% 40.2% 92 7.098
#16 10D 500 7.28% 8.91% +3.34% 38% 92 7.165
#17 10D 320 7.33% 8.98% +3.40% 39.1% 92 7.22
#18 10D 160 6.93% 9.44% +3.70% 39.1% 92 7.226
#19 10D 120 6.85% 9.52% +3.79% 38% 92 7.231
#20 10D 80 7.14% 9.63% +4.06% 37% 92 7.457
#21 10D 40 7.89% 9.92% +4.28% 32.6% 92 7.977
#22 15D 500 8.65% 11.64% +6.27% 33.3% 72 9.256
#23 15D 320 8.88% 11.82% +6.29% 34.7% 72 9.434
#24 15D 160 8.6% 12.21% +6.43% 33.3% 72 9.455
#25 15D 240 8.77% 11.99% +6.41% 34.7% 72 9.456
#26 15D 120 8.85% 12.2% +6.19% 31.9% 72 9.544
#27 15D 80 9.19% 12.43% +6.32% 31.9% 72 9.814
#28 15D 40 9.02% 12.78% +6.29% 36.1% 72 9.836
#29 20D 500 10.94% 12.9% +5.95% 30.8% 52 10.801
#30 20D 320 10.95% 13.17% +5.67% 28.8% 52 10.863