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歷史相似情境研究排名

依 DOE 校準的歷史相似 setup 統計排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=120 · horizon 3D · 自訂篩選生效 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Research status

stale · 2026-04-28

Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:36 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Opp study snapshot is stale relative to the served projection date.

View gaps
  • opp_study_date_mismatch · Opp study date mismatch
Projection candidates 3

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=120

As-of 2026-04-28

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-04-28
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-28
DOE window 2026-03-12 → 2026-04-23
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:36 HKT
Rows 3
Excluded downtrends 0
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.3–3.9

OOS n=759 Median 0.09%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.3–3.9

+0.09% OOS median · n=759

Best holding day 5D

3.5 - 4 · +3.57% ann. net · n=722

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.43% exp · 64D WF

Opp study rows 25,856 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-17

5-day calendar

過去 5 個交易日

每日套用與本頁相同篩選；列出當日全部入榜標的（非僅 Top 5）。

共 13 檔（去重） 已參與 — 檔

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.ON P75+6.54% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn33.3% / 14.2% Opp3.863 開富途
  2. #2 US.FFIV P75+3.70% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp3.684 開富途
  3. #3 US.PKG P75+3.42% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn16.7% / 2.5% Opp3.623 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

依機會分數排序：歷史相似情境中位回報、P75 上檔、歷史相似情境上漲比例、下行風險與評分質素。

Auto Opp band from Opp study best stable plateau: 3.3–3.9 (half-open upper bound). Clear Min/Max Opp and apply to show all.

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, win rate, and score quality.

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.ON ON Semiconductor · Information Technology

+1.62%

P75+6.54% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn33.3% / 14.2% Score69.8 Opp3.863
View chart 開富途
#2 US.FFIV F5, Inc. · Information Technology

+1.39%

P75+3.70% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score71 Opp3.684
View chart 開富途
#3 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

+1.38%

P75+3.42% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn16.7% / 2.5% Score80.3 Opp3.623
View chart 開富途