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Rolling projection DOE

Find the projection setup whose median is closest to actual outcomes.

Replay completed anchors and rank horizon × sample-size settings by projection error.

Snapshot 2026-04-17
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-04-17
Window 2026-03-03 → 2026-04-14
Anchors 120
Lookback 730D
Confidence low
Computed at 2026年6月25日 上午5:56 HKT
Point-in-time Point-in-time safe

Best rolling setting

3D · n=320

DOE results snapshot · Window: 2026-03-03 → 2026-04-14 · anchors: 120 · latest snapshot: 2026-04-17 · computed at: 2026年6月25日 上午5:56 HKT

Median abs error2.97%
Mean abs error4.08%
Bias+0.43%
Inside P25/P7540.8%

DOE setting comparison

Same idea as score-vs-outcome analysis: compare each parameter setting by observed actual-minus-median error over rolling completed anchors. Lower median abs error and lower bias win.

Setting Median abs Bias P25/P75 hit n Read
Setting 3D · n=320
Median abs 2.97%
Bias +0.43%
P25/P75 hit 40.8%
n 120
Rank Best setting
Setting 3D · n=240
Median abs 3.04%
Bias +0.42%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #2 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=160
Median abs 3.03%
Bias +0.43%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #3 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=500
Median abs 3.09%
Bias +0.44%
P25/P75 hit 41.7%
n 120
Rank #4 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=120
Median abs 3.08%
Bias +0.42%
P25/P75 hit 45%
n 120
Rank #5 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=80
Median abs 3.12%
Bias +0.49%
P25/P75 hit 43.3%
n 120
Rank #6 Candidate
Setting 3D · n=40
Median abs 3.36%
Bias +0.55%
P25/P75 hit 38.3%
n 120
Rank #7 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=320
Median abs 3.79%
Bias +0.40%
P25/P75 hit 42%
n 112
Rank #8 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=240
Median abs 3.84%
Bias +0.46%
P25/P75 hit 42%
n 112
Rank #9 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=500
Median abs 3.92%
Bias +0.35%
P25/P75 hit 39.3%
n 112
Rank #10 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=160
Median abs 3.97%
Bias +0.65%
P25/P75 hit 41.1%
n 112
Rank #11 Candidate
Setting 5D · n=120
Median abs 3.94%
Bias +0.73%
P25/P75 hit 39.3%
n 112
Rank #12 Candidate

Best setting 3D · n=320: median projection vs actual return

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.TGT Median projection 0.67, actual return -0.01%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.VLO Median projection 0.39, actual return +3.18%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.APA Median projection 0.99, actual return +2.61%, runup +1.62%, drawdown -1.62%US.CF Median projection 0.69, actual return +8.92%, runup +8.23%, drawdown -8.23%US.VLO Median projection 0.32, actual return -4.28%, runup -4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.MPC Median projection 0.57, actual return -2.30%, runup -2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.LYB Median projection 0.22, actual return +7.91%, runup +7.69%, drawdown -7.69%US.ROST Median projection 0.32, actual return -0.64%, runup -0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.VLO Median projection 0.61, actual return -4.83%, runup -5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.CF Median projection 0.6, actual return -0.66%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.LYB Median projection 0.45, actual return -0.41%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.CTAS Median projection 0.59, actual return -4.03%, runup -4.62%, drawdown -4.62%US.PAYX Median projection 0.55, actual return -6.79%, runup -7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.KR Median projection 0.67, actual return -2.59%, runup -3.26%, drawdown -3.26%US.CF Median projection 0.32, actual return +3.76%, runup +3.44%, drawdown -3.44%US.MRVL Median projection 0.34, actual return +0.97%, runup +0.63%, drawdown -0.63%US.MRVL Median projection 0.7, actual return -5.38%, runup -6.08%, drawdown -6.08%US.APP Median projection 0.27, actual return -13.13%, runup -13.40%, drawdown -13.40%US.LYB Median projection 0.27, actual return +11.24%, runup +10.97%, drawdown -10.97%US.AVGO Median projection 0.63, actual return -2.83%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.ADM Median projection 0.1, actual return +3.73%, runup +3.63%, drawdown -3.63%US.DOW Median projection -0.09, actual return +8.06%, runup +8.15%, drawdown -8.15%US.VRT Median projection 0.51, actual return -4.14%, runup -4.65%, drawdown -4.65%US.LYB Median projection 0.03, actual return +10.20%, runup +10.17%, drawdown -10.17%US.ADM Median projection 0.08, actual return -0.11%, runup -0.19%, drawdown -0.19%US.SBUX Median projection -0.42, actual return -3.57%, runup -3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.BG Median projection 0.06, actual return +0.73%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.EQT Median projection 0.41, actual return +0.75%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CF Median projection 0.09, actual return -9.35%, runup -9.44%, drawdown -9.44%US.BG Median projection 0.1, actual return +0.10%, runup 0.00%, drawdown 0.00%US.ADM Median projection 0.31, actual return -0.52%, runup -0.83%, drawdown -0.83%US.LYB Median projection 0.07, actual return -4.21%, runup -4.28%, drawdown -4.28%US.MOS Median projection 0.31, actual return -5.22%, runup -5.53%, drawdown -5.53%US.CF Median projection 0.07, actual return -2.19%, runup -2.26%, drawdown -2.26%US.ADM Median projection -0.07, actual return -1.54%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.LNT Median projection 0.43, actual return -1.42%, runup -1.85%, drawdown -1.85%US.SNDK Median projection -0.1, actual return +9.73%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.DVN Median projection 0.16, actual return +4.59%, runup +4.43%, drawdown -4.43%US.ED Median projection 0.28, actual return -3.27%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.MU Median projection -0.22, actual return +0.56%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.SNDK Median projection -0.24, actual return -1.45%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.WDC Median projection 0.02, actual return -6.60%, runup -6.62%, drawdown -6.62%US.MU Median projection -0.22, actual return -8.40%, runup -8.18%, drawdown -8.18%US.DVN Median projection 0.58, actual return +2.61%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.JBL Median projection 0.02, actual return +2.93%, runup +2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.SNDK Median projection -0.22, actual return -6.79%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.DVN Median projection 0.51, actual return +0.69%, runup +0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CIEN Median projection -0.27, actual return +5.88%, runup +6.15%, drawdown -6.15%US.SNDK Median projection -0.29, actual return -9.02%, runup -8.73%, drawdown -8.73%US.CIEN Median projection -0.04, actual return +4.07%, runup +4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.STX Median projection -0.09, actual return -2.22%, runup -2.13%, drawdown -2.13%US.JBL Median projection -0.12, actual return +4.55%, runup +4.67%, drawdown -4.67%US.COP Median projection 0.63, actual return +1.58%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.LITE Median projection 0.18, actual return +10.03%, runup +9.85%, drawdown -9.85%US.STX Median projection 0.33, actual return +0.48%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.APA Median projection 0.52, actual return +5.65%, runup +5.13%, drawdown -5.13%US.CVX Median projection 0.61, actual return +1.26%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.HAL Median projection 0.55, actual return +3.41%, runup +2.86%, drawdown -2.86%US.JBL Median projection 0.05, actual return -0.79%, runup -0.84%, drawdown -0.84%US.AKAM Median projection -0.02, actual return +2.46%, runup +2.48%, drawdown -2.48%US.DELL Median projection -0.08, actual return -2.88%, runup -2.80%, drawdown -2.80%US.LITE Median projection -0.06, actual return -12.38%, runup -12.32%, drawdown -12.32%US.FLEX Median projection 0.09, actual return -6.22%, runup -6.31%, drawdown -6.31%US.HPE Median projection 0.55, actual return +0.17%, runup -0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.HPE Median projection 0.23, actual return -12.30%, runup -12.53%, drawdown -12.53%US.CASY Median projection 0.11, actual return -1.32%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.JBL Median projection -0.1, actual return -12.63%, runup -12.53%, drawdown -12.53%US.VRSN Median projection 0.07, actual return -0.81%, runup -0.88%, drawdown -0.88%US.BF.B Median projection 0.12, actual return +2.72%, runup +2.60%, drawdown -2.60%US.OXY Median projection 0.67, actual return +0.99%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.FANG Median projection 0.83, actual return -2.18%, runup -3.01%, drawdown -3.01%US.APA Median projection 1.05, actual return -0.84%, runup -1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.BG Median projection 0.06, actual return -0.31%, runup -0.37%, drawdown -0.37%US.APA Median projection 0.86, actual return -6.85%, runup -7.71%, drawdown -7.71%US.XOM Median projection 0.75, actual return -5.97%, runup -6.72%, drawdown -6.72%US.ETR Median projection 0.07, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.30%, drawdown -3.30%US.NWS Median projection 0.08, actual return -0.74%, runup -0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, actual return +3.03%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.CF Median projection 0.4, actual return -5.55%, runup -5.95%, drawdown -5.95%US.LYB Median projection 0.7, actual return -3.37%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.NWSA Median projection 0.03, actual return -1.85%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.FDS Median projection 0.08, actual return +6.43%, runup +6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.CASY Median projection -0.19, actual return +2.74%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.NWS Median projection 0, actual return -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.FDS Median projection -0.08, actual return +1.22%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.MRVL Median projection 0.06, actual return +2.50%, runup +2.44%, drawdown -2.44%US.CASY Median projection -0.23, actual return +0.63%, runup +0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.ETR Median projection -0.06, actual return +0.26%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.CIEN Median projection -0.15, actual return +10.33%, runup +10.48%, drawdown -10.48%US.LITE Median projection -0.28, actual return +8.36%, runup +8.64%, drawdown -8.64%US.INTC Median projection -0.07, actual return +17.01%, runup +17.08%, drawdown -17.08%US.SBAC Median projection -0.16, actual return +7.19%, runup +7.35%, drawdown -7.35%US.STX Median projection -0.31, actual return +10.47%, runup +10.78%, drawdown -10.78%US.VRSN Median projection -0.83, actual return -1.69%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.SBAC Median projection -0.66, actual return +2.84%, runup +3.50%, drawdown -3.50%US.MRVL Median projection -0.1, actual return +9.52%, runup +9.62%, drawdown -9.62%US.HUM Median projection -0.68, actual return -2.54%, runup -1.86%, drawdown -1.86%US.UNH Median projection -0.79, actual return -1.10%, runup -0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.JBL Median projection 0, actual return +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.61, actual return +3.37%, runup +3.98%, drawdown -3.98%US.SBAC Median projection -0.68, actual return +0.70%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, actual return +6.35%, runup +6.65%, drawdown -6.65%US.MPWR Median projection -0.66, actual return +4.52%, runup +5.18%, drawdown -5.18%US.TER Median projection -0.78, actual return +3.30%, runup +4.08%, drawdown -4.08%US.STZ Median projection -0.68, actual return +0.88%, runup +1.56%, drawdown -1.56%US.AMZN Median projection -0.78, actual return +6.58%, runup +7.36%, drawdown -7.36%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, actual return +4.42%, runup +4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.BF.B Median projection -0.7, actual return -3.63%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.MRVL Median projection -0.66, actual return +4.76%, runup +5.42%, drawdown -5.42%US.STZ Median projection -0.62, actual return -1.32%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.JBL Median projection -0.53, actual return +1.82%, runup +2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.LRCX Median projection -0.31, actual return +0.57%, runup +0.88%, drawdown -0.88%US.DELL Median projection -0.61, actual return +1.74%, runup +2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.SNDK Median projection -0.28, actual return -3.47%, runup -3.19%, drawdown -3.19%US.JBL Median projection 0.08, actual return +1.55%, runup +1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, actual return +0.13%, runup +0.03%, drawdown -0.03%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, actual return +0.62%, runup +1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.BLK Median projection -0.11, actual return -0.23%, runup -0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.A Median projection -0.15, actual return +1.23%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.JBL Median projection 0.94, actual return +5.14%, runup +4.20%, drawdown -4.20% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, actual return +1.47%, n 49Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, actual return -0.17%, n 71 Corr -0.15 R² 2.2% n 120 Median projection return Actual return

X = Median projection return. Y = actual return. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.50%

Best setting 3D · n=320: median projection vs forecast error

-2 0 2 -14.00% 0.00% +18.00% US.TGT Median projection 0.67, forecast error -0.68%, runup -0.68%, drawdown -0.68%US.VLO Median projection 0.39, forecast error +2.79%, runup +2.79%, drawdown -2.79%US.APA Median projection 0.99, forecast error +1.62%, runup +1.62%, drawdown -1.62%US.CF Median projection 0.69, forecast error +8.23%, runup +8.23%, drawdown -8.23%US.VLO Median projection 0.32, forecast error -4.60%, runup -4.60%, drawdown -4.60%US.MPC Median projection 0.57, forecast error -2.87%, runup -2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.LYB Median projection 0.22, forecast error +7.69%, runup +7.69%, drawdown -7.69%US.ROST Median projection 0.32, forecast error -0.96%, runup -0.96%, drawdown -0.96%US.VLO Median projection 0.61, forecast error -5.44%, runup -5.44%, drawdown -5.44%US.CF Median projection 0.6, forecast error -1.26%, runup -1.26%, drawdown -1.26%US.LYB Median projection 0.45, forecast error -0.86%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.CTAS Median projection 0.59, forecast error -4.62%, runup -4.62%, drawdown -4.62%US.PAYX Median projection 0.55, forecast error -7.34%, runup -7.34%, drawdown -7.34%US.KR Median projection 0.67, forecast error -3.26%, runup -3.26%, drawdown -3.26%US.CF Median projection 0.32, forecast error +3.44%, runup +3.44%, drawdown -3.44%US.MRVL Median projection 0.34, forecast error +0.63%, runup +0.63%, drawdown -0.63%US.MRVL Median projection 0.7, forecast error -6.08%, runup -6.08%, drawdown -6.08%US.APP Median projection 0.27, forecast error -13.40%, runup -13.40%, drawdown -13.40%US.LYB Median projection 0.27, forecast error +10.97%, runup +10.97%, drawdown -10.97%US.AVGO Median projection 0.63, forecast error -3.46%, runup -3.46%, drawdown -3.46%US.ADM Median projection 0.1, forecast error +3.63%, runup +3.63%, drawdown -3.63%US.DOW Median projection -0.09, forecast error +8.15%, runup +8.15%, drawdown -8.15%US.VRT Median projection 0.51, forecast error -4.65%, runup -4.65%, drawdown -4.65%US.LYB Median projection 0.03, forecast error +10.17%, runup +10.17%, drawdown -10.17%US.ADM Median projection 0.08, forecast error -0.19%, runup -0.19%, drawdown -0.19%US.SBUX Median projection -0.42, forecast error -3.15%, runup -3.15%, drawdown -3.15%US.BG Median projection 0.06, forecast error +0.67%, runup +0.67%, drawdown -0.67%US.EQT Median projection 0.41, forecast error +0.34%, runup +0.34%, drawdown -0.34%US.CF Median projection 0.09, forecast error -9.44%, runup -9.44%, drawdown -9.44%US.BG Median projection 0.1, forecast error 0.00%, runup 0.00%, drawdown 0.00%US.ADM Median projection 0.31, forecast error -0.83%, runup -0.83%, drawdown -0.83%US.LYB Median projection 0.07, forecast error -4.28%, runup -4.28%, drawdown -4.28%US.MOS Median projection 0.31, forecast error -5.53%, runup -5.53%, drawdown -5.53%US.CF Median projection 0.07, forecast error -2.26%, runup -2.26%, drawdown -2.26%US.ADM Median projection -0.07, forecast error -1.47%, runup -1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.LNT Median projection 0.43, forecast error -1.85%, runup -1.85%, drawdown -1.85%US.SNDK Median projection -0.1, forecast error +9.83%, runup +9.83%, drawdown -9.83%US.DVN Median projection 0.16, forecast error +4.43%, runup +4.43%, drawdown -4.43%US.ED Median projection 0.28, forecast error -3.55%, runup -3.55%, drawdown -3.55%US.MU Median projection -0.22, forecast error +0.78%, runup +0.78%, drawdown -0.78%US.SNDK Median projection -0.24, forecast error -1.21%, runup -1.21%, drawdown -1.21%US.WDC Median projection 0.02, forecast error -6.62%, runup -6.62%, drawdown -6.62%US.MU Median projection -0.22, forecast error -8.18%, runup -8.18%, drawdown -8.18%US.DVN Median projection 0.58, forecast error +2.03%, runup +2.03%, drawdown -2.03%US.JBL Median projection 0.02, forecast error +2.91%, runup +2.91%, drawdown -2.91%US.SNDK Median projection -0.22, forecast error -6.57%, runup -6.57%, drawdown -6.57%US.DVN Median projection 0.51, forecast error +0.18%, runup +0.18%, drawdown -0.18%US.CIEN Median projection -0.27, forecast error +6.15%, runup +6.15%, drawdown -6.15%US.SNDK Median projection -0.29, forecast error -8.73%, runup -8.73%, drawdown -8.73%US.CIEN Median projection -0.04, forecast error +4.11%, runup +4.11%, drawdown -4.11%US.STX Median projection -0.09, forecast error -2.13%, runup -2.13%, drawdown -2.13%US.JBL Median projection -0.12, forecast error +4.67%, runup +4.67%, drawdown -4.67%US.COP Median projection 0.63, forecast error +0.95%, runup +0.95%, drawdown -0.95%US.LITE Median projection 0.18, forecast error +9.85%, runup +9.85%, drawdown -9.85%US.STX Median projection 0.33, forecast error +0.15%, runup +0.15%, drawdown -0.15%US.APA Median projection 0.52, forecast error +5.13%, runup +5.13%, drawdown -5.13%US.CVX Median projection 0.61, forecast error +0.65%, runup +0.65%, drawdown -0.65%US.HAL Median projection 0.55, forecast error +2.86%, runup +2.86%, drawdown -2.86%US.JBL Median projection 0.05, forecast error -0.84%, runup -0.84%, drawdown -0.84%US.AKAM Median projection -0.02, forecast error +2.48%, runup +2.48%, drawdown -2.48%US.DELL Median projection -0.08, forecast error -2.80%, runup -2.80%, drawdown -2.80%US.LITE Median projection -0.06, forecast error -12.32%, runup -12.32%, drawdown -12.32%US.FLEX Median projection 0.09, forecast error -6.31%, runup -6.31%, drawdown -6.31%US.HPE Median projection 0.55, forecast error -0.38%, runup -0.38%, drawdown -0.38%US.HPE Median projection 0.23, forecast error -12.53%, runup -12.53%, drawdown -12.53%US.CASY Median projection 0.11, forecast error -1.43%, runup -1.43%, drawdown -1.43%US.JBL Median projection -0.1, forecast error -12.53%, runup -12.53%, drawdown -12.53%US.VRSN Median projection 0.07, forecast error -0.88%, runup -0.88%, drawdown -0.88%US.BF.B Median projection 0.12, forecast error +2.60%, runup +2.60%, drawdown -2.60%US.OXY Median projection 0.67, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.FANG Median projection 0.83, forecast error -3.01%, runup -3.01%, drawdown -3.01%US.APA Median projection 1.05, forecast error -1.89%, runup -1.89%, drawdown -1.89%US.BG Median projection 0.06, forecast error -0.37%, runup -0.37%, drawdown -0.37%US.APA Median projection 0.86, forecast error -7.71%, runup -7.71%, drawdown -7.71%US.XOM Median projection 0.75, forecast error -6.72%, runup -6.72%, drawdown -6.72%US.ETR Median projection 0.07, forecast error +3.30%, runup +3.30%, drawdown -3.30%US.NWS Median projection 0.08, forecast error -0.82%, runup -0.82%, drawdown -0.82%US.CTVA Median projection 0.16, forecast error +2.87%, runup +2.87%, drawdown -2.87%US.CF Median projection 0.4, forecast error -5.95%, runup -5.95%, drawdown -5.95%US.LYB Median projection 0.7, forecast error -4.07%, runup -4.07%, drawdown -4.07%US.NWSA Median projection 0.03, forecast error -1.88%, runup -1.88%, drawdown -1.88%US.FDS Median projection 0.08, forecast error +6.35%, runup +6.35%, drawdown -6.35%US.CASY Median projection -0.19, forecast error +2.93%, runup +2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.NWS Median projection 0, forecast error -1.30%, runup -1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.FDS Median projection -0.08, forecast error +1.30%, runup +1.30%, drawdown -1.30%US.MRVL Median projection 0.06, forecast error +2.44%, runup +2.44%, drawdown -2.44%US.CASY Median projection -0.23, forecast error +0.86%, runup +0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.ETR Median projection -0.06, forecast error +0.32%, runup +0.32%, drawdown -0.32%US.CIEN Median projection -0.15, forecast error +10.48%, runup +10.48%, drawdown -10.48%US.LITE Median projection -0.28, forecast error +8.64%, runup +8.64%, drawdown -8.64%US.INTC Median projection -0.07, forecast error +17.08%, runup +17.08%, drawdown -17.08%US.SBAC Median projection -0.16, forecast error +7.35%, runup +7.35%, drawdown -7.35%US.STX Median projection -0.31, forecast error +10.78%, runup +10.78%, drawdown -10.78%US.VRSN Median projection -0.83, forecast error -0.86%, runup -0.86%, drawdown -0.86%US.SBAC Median projection -0.66, forecast error +3.50%, runup +3.50%, drawdown -3.50%US.MRVL Median projection -0.1, forecast error +9.62%, runup +9.62%, drawdown -9.62%US.HUM Median projection -0.68, forecast error -1.86%, runup -1.86%, drawdown -1.86%US.UNH Median projection -0.79, forecast error -0.31%, runup -0.31%, drawdown -0.31%US.JBL Median projection 0, forecast error +9.77%, runup +9.77%, drawdown -9.77%US.PNC Median projection -0.61, forecast error +3.98%, runup +3.98%, drawdown -3.98%US.SBAC Median projection -0.68, forecast error +1.38%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, forecast error +6.65%, runup +6.65%, drawdown -6.65%US.MPWR Median projection -0.66, forecast error +5.18%, runup +5.18%, drawdown -5.18%US.TER Median projection -0.78, forecast error +4.08%, runup +4.08%, drawdown -4.08%US.STZ Median projection -0.68, forecast error +1.56%, runup +1.56%, drawdown -1.56%US.AMZN Median projection -0.78, forecast error +7.36%, runup +7.36%, drawdown -7.36%US.JBL Median projection -0.3, forecast error +4.72%, runup +4.72%, drawdown -4.72%US.BF.B Median projection -0.7, forecast error -2.93%, runup -2.93%, drawdown -2.93%US.MRVL Median projection -0.66, forecast error +5.42%, runup +5.42%, drawdown -5.42%US.STZ Median projection -0.62, forecast error -0.70%, runup -0.70%, drawdown -0.70%US.JBL Median projection -0.53, forecast error +2.35%, runup +2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.LRCX Median projection -0.31, forecast error +0.88%, runup +0.88%, drawdown -0.88%US.DELL Median projection -0.61, forecast error +2.35%, runup +2.35%, drawdown -2.35%US.SNDK Median projection -0.28, forecast error -3.19%, runup -3.19%, drawdown -3.19%US.JBL Median projection 0.08, forecast error +1.47%, runup +1.47%, drawdown -1.47%US.BLK Median projection 0.1, forecast error +0.03%, runup +0.03%, drawdown -0.03%US.AMZN Median projection -0.66, forecast error +1.28%, runup +1.28%, drawdown -1.28%US.BLK Median projection -0.11, forecast error -0.12%, runup -0.12%, drawdown -0.12%US.A Median projection -0.15, forecast error +1.38%, runup +1.38%, drawdown -1.38%US.JBL Median projection 0.94, forecast error +4.20%, runup +4.20%, drawdown -4.20% Bucket avg Median projection -0.3, forecast error +1.81%, n 49Bucket avg Median projection 0.4, forecast error -0.53%, n 71 Corr -0.23 R² 5.2% n 120 Median projection return Actual - median

X = Median projection return. Y = actual - median. Solid line = linear trend. Orange line = bucket average. Checked: 120 · Pending: 0 · Avg: +0.43%

DOE ranking

Ranked by a composite DOE score: lower median/mean absolute error, lower bias, enough anchors, and better IQR coverage.

Rank Horizon n Median abs Mean abs Bias Inside P25/P75 Anchors DOE score
#1 3D 320 2.97% 4.08% +0.43% 40.8% 120 2.876
#2 3D 240 3.04% 4.06% +0.42% 43.3% 120 2.896
#3 3D 160 3.03% 4.09% +0.43% 43.3% 120 2.903
#4 3D 500 3.09% 4.07% +0.44% 41.7% 120 2.931
#5 3D 120 3.08% 4.13% +0.42% 45% 120 2.936
#6 3D 80 3.12% 4.18% +0.49% 43.3% 120 2.988
#7 3D 40 3.36% 4.3% +0.55% 38.3% 120 3.172
#8 5D 320 3.79% 5.71% +0.40% 42% 112 3.849
#9 5D 240 3.84% 5.69% +0.46% 42% 112 3.876
#10 5D 500 3.92% 5.73% +0.35% 39.3% 112 3.92
#11 5D 160 3.97% 5.78% +0.65% 41.1% 112 4.003
#12 5D 120 3.94% 5.82% +0.73% 39.3% 112 4.018
#13 5D 80 4.21% 5.93% +0.86% 42% 112 4.204
#14 5D 40 4.15% 6.21% +0.79% 34.8% 112 4.28
#15 10D 500 6.36% 7.79% +1.02% 38% 92 5.964
#16 10D 320 6.33% 7.83% +1.11% 38% 92 5.977
#17 10D 120 6.12% 8.09% +1.22% 38% 92 5.98
#18 10D 240 6.37% 7.91% +1.23% 38% 92 6.043
#19 10D 160 6.33% 8.11% +1.19% 37% 92 6.089
#20 10D 80 6.32% 8.11% +1.42% 37% 92 6.119
#21 10D 40 6.74% 8.25% +1.32% 35.9% 92 6.366
#22 15D 160 8.56% 10.58% +2.95% 36.1% 72 8.335
#23 15D 120 8.84% 10.53% +2.65% 36.1% 72 8.413
#24 15D 500 9.03% 10.18% +3.11% 31.9% 72 8.465
#25 15D 240 9% 10.42% +3.09% 37.5% 72 8.517
#26 15D 320 9.21% 10.3% +3.09% 34.7% 72 8.587
#27 15D 80 9.34% 10.77% +2.67% 34.7% 72 8.753
#28 15D 40 9.57% 11.05% +2.47% 37.5% 72 8.929
#29 20D 500 8.89% 11.52% +5.06% 44.2% 52 9.126
#30 20D 320 8.93% 11.56% +4.93% 40.4% 52 9.149