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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-20

Computed at 2026年10月21日 上午7:44 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 34

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-20

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-20
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-20
DOE window 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-15
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月21日 上午7:44 HKT
Rows 34
Excluded downtrends 21
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau n/a

Fold consensus below threshold; no stable plateau.

Best holding day 10D

5+ · -7.27% ann. net · n=257

Rolling best TP/SL TP 4% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.46% exp · 76D WF

Opp study rows 23,031 with outcomes

1,508 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-20

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2.3% · 上漲比 67.5% · Up−Dn +15 · 共 65 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-14

8/27
  1. #1 INTC 4日 中位+3.55% P75+10.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn37.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 TER 中位+3.31% P75+6.29% 上漲比65% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 MU 4日 中位+2.88% P75+8.38% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 LITE 中位+2.40% P75+6.79% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30%/20% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 2日 中位+2.29% P75+8.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 AAPL 中位+2.07% P75+3.68% 上漲比85% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 WAT 中位+1.92% P75+3.50% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 DDOG 中位+1.87% P75+5.03% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途

10-15

8/23
  1. #1 STX 中位+7.49% P75+11.38% 上漲比75% Up/Dn57.5%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 4日 中位+3.44% P75+10.00% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn45%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 INTC 4日 中位+3.15% P75+7.83% 上漲比75% Up/Dn37.5%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 LH 中位+2.47% P75+3.88% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 MRVL 中位+2.20% P75+5.61% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 QCOM 2日 中位+2.18% P75+5.13% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 FTNT 中位+2.13% P75+4.46% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn20%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 HUM 中位+2.03% P75+4.92% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途

10-16

8/23
  1. #1 AMD 3日 中位+7.47% P75+11.44% 上漲比82.5% Up/Dn62.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MU 4日 中位+5.38% P75+10.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn52.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 SNDK 3日 中位+5.05% P75+10.80% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 DELL 3日 中位+4.63% P75+10.55% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn42.5%/10% 開富途
  5. #5 INTC 4日 中位+4.15% P75+9.72% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn47.5%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 HPE 中位+2.40% P75+7.54% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/22.5% 開富途
  7. #7 MRK 中位+1.98% P75+3.50% 上漲比75% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 VLO 中位+1.94% P75+4.11% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途

10-19

8/20
  1. #1 SNDK 3日 中位+4.34% P75+10.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn42.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 中位+3.17% P75+7.47% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  3. #3 KEYS 中位+3.08% P75+7.72% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 AMD 3日 中位+2.38% P75+6.17% 上漲比60% Up/Dn27.5%/15% 開富途
  5. #5 PANW 中位+2.34% P75+8.28% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  6. #6 DELL 3日 中位+2.09% P75+5.41% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 ZBRA 中位+1.78% P75+4.46% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 DXCM 中位+1.28% P75+2.87% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途

10-20

8/34
  1. #1 DELL 3日 中位+4.76% P75+11.20% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 SNDK 3日 中位+2.64% P75+9.15% 上漲比60% Up/Dn42.5%/22.5% 開富途
  3. #3 AMD 3日 中位+2.44% P75+6.29% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  4. #4 MRNA 中位+2.30% P75+4.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MU 4日 中位+1.98% P75+6.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5%/22.5% 開富途
  6. #6 XOM 中位+1.98% P75+3.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 INTC 4日 中位+1.97% P75+8.78% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CNC 中位+1.75% P75+2.90% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.DELL 研究門檻符合 P75+11.20% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50% / 17.5% Opp8.63 開富途
  2. #2 US.SNDK 研究門檻符合 P75+9.15% 上漲比60% Up/Dn42.5% / 22.5% Opp4.701 開富途
  3. #3 US.AMD 研究門檻符合 P75+6.29% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35% / 15% Opp4.418 開富途
  4. #4 US.MRNA 研究門檻符合 P75+4.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Opp5.472 開富途
  5. #5 US.MU P75+6.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 22.5% Opp3.449 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+4.76%

P75+11.20% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn50% / 17.5% Score42.7 Opp8.63
View chart 開富途
#2 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+2.64%

P75+9.15% 上漲比60% Up/Dn42.5% / 22.5% Score43.1 Opp4.701
View chart 開富途
#3 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+2.44%

P75+6.29% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn35% / 15% Score40.7 Opp4.418
View chart 開富途
#4 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+2.30%

P75+4.55% 上漲比70% Up/Dn20% / 2.5% Score77.9 Opp5.472
View chart 開富途
#5 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+1.98%

P75+6.88% 上漲比60% Up/Dn32.5% / 22.5% Score39.9 Opp3.449
View chart 開富途
#6 US.XOM ExxonMobil · Energy

+1.98%

P75+3.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score71.9 Opp4.279
View chart 開富途
#7 US.INTC Intel · Information Technology

+1.97%

P75+8.78% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 17.5% Score43.1 Opp4.438
View chart 開富途
#8 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+1.75%

P75+2.90% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score64.1 Opp4.156
View chart 開富途
#9 US.WMT Walmart · Consumer Staples

+1.70%

P75+4.31% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score77.4 Opp4.258
View chart 開富途
#10 US.AMGN Amgen · Health Care

+1.69%

P75+3.97% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score78.6 Opp5.322
View chart 開富途
#11 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

+1.68%

P75+3.40% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score70.5 Opp4.859
View chart 開富途
#12 US.DXCM Dexcom · Health Care

+1.67%

P75+3.27% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score63.3 Opp4.362
View chart 開富途
#13 US.CL Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples

+1.57%

P75+3.57% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score72.4 Opp4.806
View chart 開富途
#14 US.CRL Charles River Laboratories · Health Care

+1.46%

P75+5.57% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 2.5% Score72.9 Opp3.849
View chart 開富途
#15 US.PANW Palo Alto Networks · Information Technology

+1.44%

P75+6.88% 上漲比55% Up/Dn32.5% / 20% Score40.3 Opp2.662
View chart 開富途
#16 US.PKG Packaging Corporation of America · Materials

+1.37%

P75+3.34% 上漲比70% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score71.8 Opp4.344
View chart 開富途
#17 US.TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific · Health Care

+1.33%

P75+3.79% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score77.3 Opp4.907
View chart 開富途
#18 US.ZBRA Zebra Technologies · Information Technology

+1.33%

P75+3.46% 上漲比60% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score57 Opp3.273
View chart 開富途
#19 US.STLD Steel Dynamics · Materials

+1.31%

P75+2.83% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score72.5 Opp3.961
View chart 開富途
#20 US.ANET Arista Networks · Information Technology

+1.10%

P75+5.10% 上漲比55% Up/Dn25% / 5% Score47.1 Opp2.828
View chart 開富途
#21 US.REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals · Health Care

+1.10%

P75+3.28% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score82.3 Opp4.737
View chart 開富途
#22 US.HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise · Information Technology

+1.07%

P75+4.58% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5% / 10% Score39.8 Opp3.113
View chart 開富途
#23 US.NXPI NXP Semiconductors · Information Technology

+0.90%

P75+5.05% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25% / 10% Score63.7 Opp2.84
View chart 開富途
#24 US.DG Dollar General · Consumer Staples

+0.90%

P75+3.57% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score73 Opp2.79
View chart 開富途
#25 US.HUM Humana · Health Care

+0.87%

P75+2.41% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score69.5 Opp3.044
View chart 開富途
#26 US.DD DuPont · Materials

+0.83%

P75+3.24% 上漲比60% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score69.5 Opp2.661
View chart 開富途
#27 US.NEM Newmont · Materials

+0.83%

P75+2.80% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score71.9 Opp2.919
View chart 開富途
#28 US.DDOG Datadog · Information Technology

+0.82%

P75+5.46% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Score46.7 Opp1.685
View chart 開富途
#29 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+0.68%

P75+8.61% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 22.5% Score42.3 Opp2
View chart 開富途
#30 US.VLO Valero Energy · Energy

+0.59%

P75+3.21% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score56.3 Opp2.515
View chart 開富途
#31 US.CF CF Industries · Materials

+0.54%

P75+3.65% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score69.6 Opp2.625
View chart 開富途
#32 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+0.24%

P75+4.45% 上漲比50% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Score46.4 Opp0.951
View chart 開富途
#33 US.IFF International Flavors & Fragrances · Materials

+0.09%

P75+2.75% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score62.3 Opp1.295
View chart 開富途
#34 US.KEYS Keysight Technologies · Information Technology

+0.08%

P75+5.10% 上漲比50% Up/Dn25% / 10% Score46.6 Opp1.105
View chart 開富途