歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序;僅供研究覆核,非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選(中位>0) · 中位>0 · UP>DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-10-08

Computed at 2026年10月9日 上午7:45 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 17

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-10-08

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-10-08
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-10-08
DOE window 2026-07-31 → 2026-10-05
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年10月9日 上午7:45 HKT
Rows 17
Excluded downtrends 23
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.8–4.3

OOS n=473 Median 0.07%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.8–4.3

+0.07% OOS median · n=473

Best holding day 3D

4 - 4.5 · +8.44% ann. net · n=406

Rolling best TP/SL TP 4% / SL -3%

4 - 4.5 · +0.3% exp · 63D WF

Opp study rows 24,066 with outcomes

1,503 awaiting horizon End 2026-10-08

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻(中位>0 · UP>DN · 排除長期下跌),按中位升幅排序;每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +1.4% · 上漲比 62.5% · Up−Dn +15.6 · 共 51 檔(去重)

已參與 — 檔

10-02

8/11
  1. #1 SNDK 中位+1.19% P75+5.59% 上漲比55% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DDOG 2日 中位+1.03% P75+4.90% 上漲比60% Up/Dn25%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 CF 2日 中位+0.99% P75+5.00% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 GNRC 中位+0.85% P75+4.48% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CVX 2日 中位+0.83% P75+2.95% 上漲比60% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 MCHP 2日 中位+0.70% P75+4.00% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 ELV 中位+0.55% P75+3.35% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 MAR 中位+0.51% P75+2.03% 上漲比55% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

10-05

8/16
  1. #1 WDC 3日 中位+2.33% P75+6.01% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 AMD 2日 中位+1.78% P75+4.54% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 PANW 中位+1.63% P75+5.14% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 TECH 中位+1.32% P75+3.45% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CVX 2日 中位+1.24% P75+3.49% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 CF 2日 中位+1.23% P75+4.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 VRSN 中位+1.17% P75+5.15% 上漲比65% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 MRNA 2日 中位+1.13% P75+4.91% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途

10-06

8/15
  1. #1 WDC 3日 中位+3.22% P75+8.53% 上漲比70% Up/Dn42.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DDOG 2日 中位+2.22% P75+5.59% 上漲比65% Up/Dn32.5%/13.8% 開富途
  3. #3 MPWR 中位+1.44% P75+5.01% 上漲比70% Up/Dn26.3%/11.3% 開富途
  4. #4 LRCX 中位+1.30% P75+4.80% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  5. #5 KLAC 3日 中位+1.18% P75+4.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  6. #6 AMGN 中位+1.08% P75+3.08% 上漲比71.3% Up/Dn11.3%/1.3% 開富途
  7. #7 HPQ 2日 中位+1.07% P75+5.93% 上漲比60% Up/Dn30%/20% 開富途
  8. #8 JBL 中位+1.00% P75+5.68% 上漲比58.8% Up/Dn28.8%/6.3% 開富途

10-07

8/19
  1. #1 AMD 2日 中位+4.13% P75+6.37% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn40%/0% 開富途
  2. #2 KLAC 3日 中位+2.75% P75+5.59% 上漲比70% Up/Dn32.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 HPQ 2日 中位+2.71% P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn32.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 STX 中位+2.19% P75+6.60% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 QCOM 中位+2.01% P75+8.36% 上漲比60% Up/Dn35%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 WDC 3日 中位+1.89% P75+6.79% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn35%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 DVA 2日 中位+1.69% P75+4.20% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 HUM 中位+1.64% P75+4.49% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途

10-08

8/17
  1. #1 MU 中位+2.71% P75+6.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/17.5% 開富途
  2. #2 MCHP 2日 中位+2.40% P75+6.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5%/7.5% 開富途
  3. #3 KLAC 3日 中位+2.10% P75+5.89% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30%/12.5% 開富途
  4. #4 DVA 2日 中位+1.67% P75+3.47% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 DELL 中位+1.44% P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/17.5% 開富途
  6. #6 NTAP 中位+1.16% P75+5.03% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 GILD 中位+1.15% P75+3.94% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 MRNA 2日 中位+1.07% P75+3.58% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.MU P75+6.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 17.5% Opp4.678 開富途
  2. #2 US.MCHP P75+6.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 7.5% Opp5.093 開富途
  3. #3 US.KLAC P75+5.89% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 12.5% Opp4.322 開富途
  4. #4 US.DVA P75+3.47% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Opp3.917 開富途
  5. #5 US.DELL P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Opp3.798 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序,其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn;不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP>DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計,不是交易建議;請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.MU Micron Technology · Information Technology

+2.71%

P75+6.04% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 17.5% Score67.7 Opp4.678
View chart 開富途
#2 US.MCHP Microchip Technology · Information Technology

+2.40%

P75+6.95% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn32.5% / 7.5% Score54 Opp5.093
View chart 開富途
#3 US.KLAC KLA Corporation · Information Technology

+2.10%

P75+5.89% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn30% / 12.5% Score66.6 Opp4.322
View chart 開富途
#4 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

+1.67%

P75+3.47% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score50.6 Opp3.917
View chart 開富途
#5 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+1.44%

P75+5.89% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Score71.4 Opp3.798
View chart 開富途
#6 US.NTAP NetApp · Information Technology

+1.16%

P75+5.03% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score77.5 Opp4.349
View chart 開富途
#7 US.GILD Gilead Sciences · Health Care

+1.15%

P75+3.94% 上漲比70% Up/Dn15% / 0% Score51.4 Opp4.121
View chart 開富途
#8 US.MRNA Moderna · Health Care

+1.07%

P75+3.58% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score79.7 Opp3.463
View chart 開富途
#9 US.FLEX Flex Ltd. · Information Technology

+1.02%

P75+4.57% 上漲比55% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Score66.2 Opp2.309
View chart 開富途
#10 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

+0.97%

P75+3.24% 上漲比60% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score60.5 Opp2.734
View chart 開富途
#11 US.SNDK Sandisk · Information Technology

+0.78%

P75+6.13% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30% / 15% Score54 Opp2.418
View chart 開富途
#12 US.AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Information Technology

+0.74%

P75+3.25% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score71.7 Opp3.34
View chart 開富途
#13 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+0.55%

P75+6.19% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 10% Score50.3 Opp2.075
View chart 開富途
#14 US.LIN Linde plc · Materials

+0.47%

P75+3.21% 上漲比55% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score68.1 Opp2.033
View chart 開富途
#15 US.JCI Johnson Controls · Industrials

+0.28%

P75+2.04% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score72.6 Opp1.735
View chart 開富途
#16 US.OXY Occidental Petroleum · Energy

+0.27%

P75+3.28% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score72.6 Opp1.685
View chart 開富途
#17 US.ACGL Arch Capital Group · Financials

+0.18%

P75+1.73% 上漲比50% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score74.9 Opp1.174
View chart 開富途