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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-09-29

Computed at 2026年9月30日 上午7:46 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 23

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-09-29

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-29
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-29
DOE window 2026-07-22 → 2026-09-24
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月30日 上午7:46 HKT
Rows 23
Excluded downtrends 32
Review DOE calibration
Stable Opp plateau 3.0–3.6

OOS n=1,069 Median 0.1%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.0–3.6

+0.1% OOS median · n=1069

Best holding day 3D

3 - 3.5 · +12.64% ann. net · n=1085

Rolling best TP/SL TP 6.5% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.56% exp · 77D WF

Opp study rows 25,240 with outcomes

1,507 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-29

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2.2% · 上漲比 70% · Up−Dn +16.3 · 共 81 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

09-23

8/40
  1. #1 EOG 2日 中位+3.08% P75+4.82% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  2. #2 STLD 中位+2.89% P75+4.56% 上漲比75% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 COP 3日 中位+2.65% P75+4.38% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 OXY 2日 中位+2.62% P75+4.73% 上漲比80% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 HAL 3日 中位+2.34% P75+3.79% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 SLB 3日 中位+2.26% P75+4.14% 上漲比70% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 FANG 2日 中位+2.11% P75+3.23% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 OKE 2日 中位+2.00% P75+3.98% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途

09-24

8/28
  1. #1 MPC 2日 中位+2.44% P75+4.78% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 COP 3日 中位+2.42% P75+4.38% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 HAL 3日 中位+2.34% P75+4.04% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 OKE 2日 中位+2.30% P75+3.84% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 EOG 2日 中位+2.28% P75+4.07% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 FANG 2日 中位+2.26% P75+3.28% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 LITE 中位+2.23% P75+5.43% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 SLB 3日 中位+2.16% P75+4.73% 上漲比75% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途

09-25

8/26
  1. #1 HAL 3日 中位+2.62% P75+4.87% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  2. #2 OXY 2日 中位+2.09% P75+4.16% 上漲比75% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 COHR 中位+1.74% P75+4.66% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn22.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 LH 中位+1.67% P75+3.35% 上漲比70% Up/Dn10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 PSX 2日 中位+1.63% P75+5.12% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn27.5%/12.5% 開富途
  6. #6 APA 中位+1.63% P75+3.81% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  7. #7 WMB 中位+1.59% P75+3.56% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 COP 3日 中位+1.54% P75+4.60% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途

09-28

8/20
  1. #1 GLW 中位+2.66% P75+7.32% 上漲比70% Up/Dn35%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DVA 中位+2.35% P75+5.10% 上漲比70% Up/Dn27.5%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 CF 中位+2.33% P75+4.65% 上漲比60% Up/Dn22.5%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 MPC 2日 中位+1.79% P75+4.40% 上漲比70% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MRNA 中位+1.78% P75+4.45% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 PSX 2日 中位+1.41% P75+4.19% 上漲比65% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  7. #7 SLB 3日 中位+1.41% P75+3.56% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 BKR 中位+1.41% P75+3.21% 上漲比65% Up/Dn12.5%/0% 開富途

09-29

8/23
  1. #1 VLO 中位+2.44% P75+4.71% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/10% 開富途
  2. #2 DELL 中位+2.41% P75+8.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 QCOM 中位+2.41% P75+8.09% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 MRVL 中位+2.10% P75+4.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 JCI 中位+2.01% P75+3.92% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 ANET 中位+1.74% P75+5.35% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn30%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 CNC 中位+1.45% P75+5.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 TT 中位+1.25% P75+3.22% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/2.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.VLO P75+4.71% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20% / 10% Opp5.668 開富途
  2. #2 US.DELL P75+8.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35% / 15% Opp5.507 開富途
  3. #3 US.QCOM P75+8.09% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5% / 5% Opp6.144 開富途
  4. #4 US.MRVL P75+4.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Opp4.766 開富途
  5. #5 US.JCI P75+3.92% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Opp4.154 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.VLO Valero Energy · Energy

+2.44%

P75+4.71% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20% / 10% Score60 Opp5.668
View chart 開富途
#2 US.DELL Dell Technologies · Information Technology

+2.41%

P75+8.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn35% / 15% Score50.2 Opp5.507
View chart 開富途
#3 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+2.41%

P75+8.09% 上漲比70% Up/Dn37.5% / 5% Score54.9 Opp6.144
View chart 開富途
#4 US.MRVL Marvell Technology · Information Technology

+2.10%

P75+4.88% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 7.5% Score66.1 Opp4.766
View chart 開富途
#5 US.JCI Johnson Controls · Industrials

+2.01%

P75+3.92% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score61.9 Opp4.154
View chart 開富途
#6 US.ANET Arista Networks · Information Technology

+1.74%

P75+5.35% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn30% / 7.5% Score59.3 Opp4.472
View chart 開富途
#7 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+1.45%

P75+5.67% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 0% Score46.7 Opp4.218
View chart 開富途
#8 US.TT Trane Technologies · Industrials

+1.25%

P75+3.22% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score74 Opp4.26
View chart 開富途
#9 US.FCX Freeport-McMoRan · Materials

+1.01%

P75+4.06% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score51 Opp3.258
View chart 開富途
#10 US.TER Teradyne · Information Technology

+0.96%

P75+5.00% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn25% / 15% Score74.9 Opp2.872
View chart 開富途
#11 US.PSX Phillips 66 · Energy

+0.94%

P75+3.34% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score51.3 Opp2.71
View chart 開富途
#12 US.MO Altria · Consumer Staples

+0.92%

P75+2.78% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score56.4 Opp3.038
View chart 開富途
#13 US.RVTY Revvity · Health Care

+0.82%

P75+3.03% 上漲比60% Up/Dn20% / 0% Score79.4 Opp2.973
View chart 開富途
#14 US.AAPL Apple Inc. · Information Technology

+0.75%

P75+3.23% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15% / 2.5% Score55.8 Opp3.026
View chart 開富途
#15 US.FAST Fastenal · Industrials

+0.74%

P75+3.06% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score61.6 Opp2.167
View chart 開富途
#16 US.CF CF Industries · Materials

+0.68%

P75+3.15% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score43.4 Opp1.993
View chart 開富途
#17 US.GLW Corning Inc. · Information Technology

+0.58%

P75+5.42% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 17.5% Score57.2 Opp1.514
View chart 開富途
#18 US.DVA DaVita · Health Care

+0.57%

P75+4.64% 上漲比55% Up/Dn22.5% / 0% Score41.7 Opp2.443
View chart 開富途
#19 US.PHM PulteGroup · Consumer Discretionary

+0.36%

P75+2.09% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score47.8 Opp1.141
View chart 開富途
#20 US.COHR Coherent Corp. · Information Technology

+0.35%

P75+8.20% 上漲比50% Up/Dn37.5% / 20% Score47.8 Opp1.559
View chart 開富途
#21 US.GNRC Generac · Industrials

+0.34%

P75+2.53% 上漲比55% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score61.3 Opp1.532
View chart 開富途
#22 US.NUE Nucor · Materials

+0.29%

P75+1.70% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score48.6 Opp2.08
View chart 開富途
#23 US.PANW Palo Alto Networks · Information Technology

+0.08%

P75+4.82% 上漲比50% Up/Dn22.5% / 7.5% Score70.8 Opp1.366
View chart 開富途