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歷史相似情境研究排名

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＞0） · 中位＞0 · UP＞DN 10% · 已排除長期下跌

短期下跌版本

Research status

healthy · 2026-09-24

Computed at 2026年9月25日 上午7:47 HKT · Point-in-time safe

Filters

登入後可開啟每日投影機會電郵摘要

Projection candidates 28

Coverage 100.0%

Best DOE 3D n=40

As-of 2026-09-24

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-24
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-24
DOE window 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-21
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月25日 上午7:47 HKT
Rows 28
Excluded downtrends 27
Review DOE calibration
Buy band (stable Opp plateau) 3.5–4.0

OOS n=594 Median -0.04%

Opp study overview

Best plateau, hold, and rolling TP/SL

Snapshot from Opp study: walk-forward OOS stable Opp plateau, best fixed holding day, and top walk-forward TP/SL combo.

Opp study
Best stable plateau 3.5–4.0

-0.04% OOS median · n=594

Best holding day 3D

3.5 - 4 · +1.72% ann. net · n=744

Rolling best TP/SL TP 9% / SL -5%

3 - 3.5 · +0.44% exp · 73D WF

Opp study rows 25,657 with outcomes

1,506 awaiting horizon End 2026-09-24

投影追蹤Lv1

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期上升門檻（中位＞0 · UP＞DN · 排除長期下跌），按中位升幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

投影追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 +2% · 上漲比 67.9% · Up−Dn +15.5 · 共 102 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

09-18

8/49
  1. #1 OMC 中位+1.89% P75+5.38% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 CBOE 中位+1.77% P75+4.27% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn21.3%/6.3% 開富途
  3. #3 LRCX 中位+1.68% P75+6.61% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn33.8%/20% 開富途
  4. #4 GLW 中位+1.62% P75+7.38% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn28.8%/16.3% 開富途
  5. #5 HAL 4日 中位+1.39% P75+3.57% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 ELV 中位+1.34% P75+3.09% 上漲比63.8% Up/Dn13.8%/3.8% 開富途
  7. #7 LYB 中位+1.25% P75+3.87% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn18.8%/8.8% 開富途
  8. #8 FANG 4日 中位+1.17% P75+3.55% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途

09-21

8/27
  1. #1 SLB 4日 中位+1.90% P75+4.33% 上漲比63.3% Up/Dn21.7%/5.8% 開富途
  2. #2 STLD 3日 中位+1.84% P75+4.26% 上漲比61.7% Up/Dn17.5%/6.7% 開富途
  3. #3 FANG 4日 中位+1.74% P75+4.11% 上漲比69.2% Up/Dn20%/0.8% 開富途
  4. #4 CF 中位+1.71% P75+4.56% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5.8% 開富途
  5. #5 BKR 中位+1.44% P75+4.03% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn19.2%/3.3% 開富途
  6. #6 CNC 中位+1.28% P75+3.69% 上漲比65% Up/Dn21.7%/4.2% 開富途
  7. #7 BG 中位+1.24% P75+4.07% 上漲比65% Up/Dn15%/1.7% 開富途
  8. #8 WMB 2日 中位+1.23% P75+3.84% 上漲比64.2% Up/Dn16.7%/3.3% 開富途

09-22

8/37
  1. #1 HAL 4日 中位+3.08% P75+5.07% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn30%/2.5% 開富途
  2. #2 STLD 3日 中位+2.89% P75+4.58% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 EOG 3日 中位+2.78% P75+4.82% 上漲比75% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 CVX 中位+2.73% P75+4.73% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 DVN 中位+2.36% P75+4.07% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 WMB 2日 中位+2.09% P75+4.03% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 HUM 中位+2.07% P75+5.38% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 SLB 4日 中位+2.07% P75+4.14% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/7.5% 開富途

09-23

8/40
  1. #1 EOG 3日 中位+3.08% P75+4.82% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  2. #2 STLD 3日 中位+2.89% P75+4.56% 上漲比75% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 COP 2日 中位+2.65% P75+4.38% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 OXY 中位+2.62% P75+4.73% 上漲比80% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 HAL 4日 中位+2.34% P75+3.79% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn20%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 SLB 4日 中位+2.26% P75+4.14% 上漲比70% Up/Dn25%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 FANG 4日 中位+2.11% P75+3.23% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn15%/5% 開富途
  8. #8 OKE 2日 中位+2.00% P75+3.98% 上漲比65% Up/Dn17.5%/5% 開富途

09-24

8/28
  1. #1 MPC 中位+2.44% P75+4.78% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 COP 2日 中位+2.42% P75+4.38% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 HAL 4日 中位+2.34% P75+4.04% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 OKE 2日 中位+2.30% P75+3.84% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 EOG 3日 中位+2.28% P75+4.07% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 FANG 4日 中位+2.26% P75+3.28% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 LITE 中位+2.23% P75+5.43% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 SLB 4日 中位+2.16% P75+4.73% 上漲比75% Up/Dn25%/2.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 quick look

  1. #1 US.MPC P75+4.78% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Opp5.145 開富途
  2. #2 US.COP P75+4.38% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Opp6.137 開富途
  3. #3 US.HAL P75+4.04% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp5.536 開富途
  4. #4 US.OKE P75+3.84% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Opp5.898 開富途
  5. #5 US.EOG P75+4.07% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5% / 0% Opp6.082 開富途

Upside leaders

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位升幅排序，其後才看 P75 與 Up−Dn；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格大於 0。

Default filter active: UP＞DN 10% (Up5 − Down5 ≥ 10pp).

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by median upside, then P75, then Up−Dn.

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Long-term downtrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending down, below long MA with deep 60D drawdown, or 120D decline below long MA.

#1 US.MPC Marathon Petroleum · Energy

+2.44%

P75+4.78% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn22.5% / 12.5% Score61.4 Opp5.145
View chart 開富途
#2 US.COP ConocoPhillips · Energy

+2.42%

P75+4.38% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5% / 2.5% Score49.6 Opp6.137
View chart 開富途
#3 US.HAL Halliburton · Energy

+2.34%

P75+4.04% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score44.8 Opp5.536
View chart 開富途
#4 US.OKE Oneok · Energy

+2.30%

P75+3.84% 上漲比80% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score51.8 Opp5.898
View chart 開富途
#5 US.EOG EOG Resources · Energy

+2.28%

P75+4.07% 上漲比80% Up/Dn22.5% / 0% Score51.2 Opp6.082
View chart 開富途
#6 US.FANG Diamondback Energy · Energy

+2.26%

P75+3.28% 上漲比70% Up/Dn17.5% / 7.5% Score41.5 Opp4.541
View chart 開富途
#7 US.LITE Lumentum · Information Technology

+2.23%

P75+5.43% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 7.5% Score72.2 Opp5.079
View chart 開富途
#8 US.SLB Schlumberger · Energy

+2.16%

P75+4.73% 上漲比75% Up/Dn25% / 2.5% Score46.4 Opp5.541
View chart 開富途
#9 US.IVZ Invesco · Financials

+2.13%

P75+4.50% 上漲比75% Up/Dn22.5% / 5% Score60.4 Opp5.408
View chart 開富途
#10 US.PSX Phillips 66 · Energy

+2.06%

P75+5.27% 上漲比77.5% Up/Dn30% / 10% Score53.9 Opp5.382
View chart 開富途
#11 US.BKR Baker Hughes · Energy

+1.89%

P75+3.98% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score52.1 Opp5.076
View chart 開富途
#12 US.CNC Centene Corporation · Health Care

+1.57%

P75+4.84% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn25% / 2.5% Score49.3 Opp4.4
View chart 開富途
#13 US.WMB Williams Companies · Energy

+1.52%

P75+3.56% 上漲比75% Up/Dn17.5% / 0% Score51.4 Opp4.796
View chart 開富途
#14 US.APA APA Corporation · Energy

+1.50%

P75+4.50% 上漲比70% Up/Dn25% / 12.5% Score54.9 Opp3.887
View chart 開富途
#15 US.LH Labcorp · Health Care

+1.42%

P75+3.85% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 0% Score49.1 Opp4.151
View chart 開富途
#16 US.CVX Chevron Corporation · Energy

+1.41%

P75+3.24% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn20% / 0% Score51.7 Opp4.408
View chart 開富途
#17 US.OXY Occidental Petroleum · Energy

+1.21%

P75+2.68% 上漲比72.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score51.7 Opp3.918
View chart 開富途
#18 US.BG Bunge Global · Consumer Staples

+1.17%

P75+3.80% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score43.6 Opp3.547
View chart 開富途
#19 US.DGX Quest Diagnostics · Health Care

+1.10%

P75+3.70% 上漲比67.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score57.4 Opp3.706
View chart 開富途
#20 US.ZBRA Zebra Technologies · Information Technology

+1.02%

P75+4.57% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn20% / 10% Score64.6 Opp2.647
View chart 開富途
#21 US.FCX Freeport-McMoRan · Materials

+0.96%

P75+3.43% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score57.7 Opp2.55
View chart 開富途
#22 US.QCOM Qualcomm · Information Technology

+0.76%

P75+6.17% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn30% / 20% Score62.5 Opp2.171
View chart 開富途
#23 US.COHR Coherent Corp. · Information Technology

+0.74%

P75+5.35% 上漲比62.5% Up/Dn27.5% / 10% Score57.4 Opp2.908
View chart 開富途
#24 US.LIN Linde plc · Materials

+0.57%

P75+2.92% 上漲比57.5% Up/Dn17.5% / 5% Score62.5 Opp2.069
View chart 開富途
#25 US.DXCM Dexcom · Health Care

+0.43%

P75+2.26% 上漲比55% Up/Dn10% / 0% Score61.9 Opp1.859
View chart 開富途
#26 US.BAX Baxter International · Health Care

+0.11%

P75+2.97% 上漲比50% Up/Dn17.5% / 2.5% Score55.4 Opp1.118
View chart 開富途
#27 US.BDX Becton Dickinson · Health Care

+0.10%

P75+2.56% 上漲比52.5% Up/Dn12.5% / 2.5% Score51.8 Opp1.178
View chart 開富途
#28 US.EW Edwards Lifesciences · Health Care

+0.04%

P75+3.04% 上漲比50% Up/Dn15% / 5% Score56.7 Opp0.925
View chart 開富途