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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.1% · 下跌比 62.5% · Dn−Up +12.5 · 共 38 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-09

8/11
  1. #1 ROL 2日 中位-2.51% P25-5.15% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 NRG 3日 中位-1.62% P25-4.88% 下跌比65% Dn/Up25%/7.5% 開富途
  3. #3 KMB 2日 中位-1.53% P25-3.04% 下跌比70% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 UBER 中位-1.43% P25-2.82% 下跌比77.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 PSKY 中位-1.23% P25-4.94% 下跌比60% Dn/Up25%/10% 開富途
  6. #6 PPL 中位-0.99% P25-2.87% 下跌比65% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 TSLA 中位-0.98% P25-3.55% 下跌比60% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  8. #8 COF 中位-0.95% P25-2.57% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

10-12

8/9
  1. #1 ROL 2日 中位-2.66% P25-5.49% 下跌比65% Dn/Up30%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 TAP 中位-1.42% P25-4.14% 下跌比70% Dn/Up15%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 KMB 2日 中位-1.42% P25-3.01% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 WFC 中位-1.29% P25-3.01% 下跌比65% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 VST 2日 中位-0.85% P25-3.93% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up22.5%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 FICO 2日 中位-0.70% P25-6.53% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up30%/7.5% 開富途
  7. #7 NRG 3日 中位-0.63% P25-5.07% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up27.5%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 CMS 中位-0.52% P25-2.56% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

10-13

8/10
  1. #1 CSGP 2日 中位-1.29% P25-3.48% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  2. #2 EQT 中位-1.23% P25-3.14% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  3. #3 BF.B 中位-1.12% P25-3.30% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 EXE 2日 中位-1.10% P25-3.53% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 NRG 3日 中位-0.72% P25-4.75% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up25%/2.5% 開富途
  6. #6 BR 中位-0.69% P25-1.65% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 PEG 中位-0.68% P25-2.56% 下跌比60% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  8. #8 ZTS 中位-0.67% P25-2.64% 下跌比55% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

10-15

8/13
  1. #1 AJG 2日 中位-3.26% P25-4.82% 下跌比87.5% Dn/Up25%/5% 開富途
  2. #2 AXON 中位-1.71% P25-5.20% 下跌比65% Dn/Up27.5%/15% 開富途
  3. #3 FICO 2日 中位-1.64% P25-5.12% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up27.5%/7.5% 開富途
  4. #4 LDOS 中位-1.42% P25-3.46% 下跌比75% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 CPRT 中位-1.26% P25-3.87% 下跌比75% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 OTIS 中位-1.13% P25-2.94% 下跌比65% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 SBAC 中位-0.98% P25-3.53% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CSGP 2日 中位-0.87% P25-4.40% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up22.5%/10% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.AJG P25-4.82% 下跌比87.5% Dn/Up25% / 5% 中位-3.26% 開富途
  2. #2 US.AXON P25-5.20% 下跌比65% Dn/Up27.5% / 15% 中位-1.71% 開富途
  3. #3 US.FICO P25-5.12% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up27.5% / 7.5% 中位-1.64% 開富途
  4. #4 US.LDOS P25-3.46% 下跌比75% Dn/Up17.5% / 0% 中位-1.42% 開富途
  5. #5 US.CPRT P25-3.87% 下跌比75% Dn/Up15% / 5% 中位-1.26% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · Financials

-3.26%

P25-4.82% Down87.5% Dn/Up525% / 5% Score99.4 DownOpp6.42
View chart 開富途
#2 US.AXON Axon Enterprise · Industrials

-1.71%

P25-5.20% Down65% Dn/Up527.5% / 15% Score56 DownOpp2.89
View chart 開富途
#3 US.FICO Fair Isaac · Information Technology

-1.64%

P25-5.12% Down67.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score66.2 DownOpp3.374
View chart 開富途
#4 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-1.42%

P25-3.46% Down75% Dn/Up517.5% / 0% Score69.4 DownOpp3.765
View chart 開富途
#5 US.CPRT Copart · Industrials

-1.26%

P25-3.87% Down75% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score71.4 DownOpp3.392
View chart 開富途
#6 US.OTIS Otis Worldwide · Industrials

-1.13%

P25-2.94% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score77 DownOpp2.487
View chart 開富途
#7 US.SBAC SBA Communications · Real Estate

-0.98%

P25-3.53% Down65% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score71.4 DownOpp2.377
View chart 開富途
#8 US.CSGP CoStar Group · Real Estate

-0.87%

P25-4.40% Down62.5% Dn/Up522.5% / 10% Score91.1 DownOpp1.687
View chart 開富途
#9 US.EXC Exelon · Utilities

-0.70%

P25-2.50% Down57.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score67.5 DownOpp1.419
View chart 開富途
#10 US.INTU Intuit · Information Technology

-0.61%

P25-4.10% Down55% Dn/Up522.5% / 7.5% Score94.4 DownOpp0.877
View chart 開富途
#11 US.KMB Kimberly-Clark · Consumer Staples

-0.59%

P25-3.22% Down67.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 2.5% Score93.1 DownOpp1.947
View chart 開富途
#12 US.BKNG Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.58%

P25-3.71% Down57.5% Dn/Up512.5% / 0% Score70.3 DownOpp1.58
View chart 開富途
#13 US.ADSK Autodesk · Information Technology

-0.44%

P25-3.99% Down52.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score90.1 DownOpp0.812
View chart 開富途