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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=80 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.1% · 下跌比 63.8% · Dn−Up +12.5 · 共 27 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

10-01

7/7
  1. #1 ROL 2日 中位-2.14% P25-4.69% 下跌比75% Dn/Up22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DHR 中位-1.60% P25-3.82% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 NVR 中位-1.36% P25-3.35% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 ERIE 中位-1.25% P25-2.47% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MKC 中位-1.13% P25-2.35% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 CCL 2日 中位-1.06% P25-2.76% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 TMUS 2日 中位-0.85% P25-3.11% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途

10-05

8/12
  1. #1 FICO 2日 中位-2.64% P25-6.69% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up37.5%/20% 開富途
  2. #2 PSKY 中位-1.58% P25-4.84% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up25%/12.5% 開富途
  3. #3 CPRT 中位-1.23% P25-3.36% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 BLDR 2日 中位-0.95% P25-2.82% 下跌比55% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  5. #5 CDW 中位-0.93% P25-4.55% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up25%/15% 開富途
  6. #6 AMT 中位-0.92% P25-1.93% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 TSCO 中位-0.88% P25-2.59% 下跌比70% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 ROL 2日 中位-0.83% P25-3.00% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.VST P25-4.25% 下跌比66.3% Dn/Up18.8% / 7.5% 中位-1.90% 開富途
  2. #2 US.FICO P25-6.73% 下跌比61.3% Dn/Up30% / 7.5% 中位-1.73% 開富途
  3. #3 US.AOS P25-3.76% 下跌比65% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-0.99% 開富途
  4. #4 US.TRMB P25-5.16% 下跌比61.3% Dn/Up26.3% / 7.5% 中位-0.80% 開富途
  5. #5 US.RCL P25-2.88% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up17.5% / 5% 中位-0.47% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-1.90%

P25-4.25% Down66.3% Dn/Up518.8% / 7.5% Score98 DownOpp3.081
View chart 開富途
#2 US.FICO Fair Isaac · Information Technology

-1.73%

P25-6.73% Down61.3% Dn/Up530% / 7.5% Score65.2 DownOpp3.377
View chart 開富途
#3 US.AOS A. O. Smith · Industrials

-0.99%

P25-3.76% Down65% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score51.6 DownOpp2.743
View chart 開富途
#4 US.TRMB Trimble Inc. · Information Technology

-0.80%

P25-5.16% Down61.3% Dn/Up526.3% / 7.5% Score90.1 DownOpp1.868
View chart 開富途
#5 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.88% Down57.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 5% Score87 DownOpp0.838
View chart 開富途