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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1.1% · 下跌比 65% · Dn−Up +11.3 · 共 21 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

09-29

8/8
  1. #1 PSKY 中位-1.83% P25-5.28% 下跌比65% Dn/Up30%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 CCL 3日 中位-1.53% P25-3.67% 下跌比70% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  3. #3 IDXX 中位-1.53% P25-3.21% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 WRB 中位-1.30% P25-2.91% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 PEP 2日 中位-0.87% P25-3.17% 下跌比65% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 T 中位-0.72% P25-2.63% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 CRWD 中位-0.41% P25-3.83% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 SNPS 中位-0.13% P25-3.70% 下跌比50% Dn/Up20%/2.5% 開富途

10-01

7/7
  1. #1 ROL 中位-2.14% P25-4.69% 下跌比75% Dn/Up22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 DHR 中位-1.60% P25-3.82% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5%/0% 開富途
  3. #3 NVR 中位-1.36% P25-3.35% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途
  4. #4 ERIE 中位-1.25% P25-2.47% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  5. #5 MKC 中位-1.13% P25-2.35% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 CCL 3日 中位-1.06% P25-2.76% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 TMUS 2日 中位-0.85% P25-3.11% 下跌比65% Dn/Up15%/2.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.BLDR P25-5.53% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up27.5% / 10% 中位-1.69% 開富途
  2. #2 US.GIS P25-3.11% 下跌比70% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-1.55% 開富途
  3. #3 US.TMUS P25-3.14% 下跌比65% Dn/Up17.5% / 2.5% 中位-0.72% 開富途
  4. #4 US.VST P25-1.85% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up10% / 0% 中位-0.68% 開富途
  5. #5 US.ACN P25-5.40% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up27.5% / 7.5% 中位-0.62% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-1.69%

P25-5.53% Down72.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 10% Score50.6 DownOpp3.893
View chart 開富途
#2 US.GIS General Mills · Consumer Staples

-1.55%

P25-3.11% Down70% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score51.1 DownOpp3.544
View chart 開富途
#3 US.TMUS T-Mobile US · Communication Services

-0.72%

P25-3.14% Down65% Dn/Up517.5% / 2.5% Score45.8 DownOpp2.212
View chart 開富途
#4 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.68%

P25-1.85% Down67.5% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score68.6 DownOpp2.028
View chart 開富途
#5 US.ACN Accenture · Information Technology

-0.62%

P25-5.40% Down62.5% Dn/Up527.5% / 7.5% Score90 DownOpp1.845
View chart 開富途
#6 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.31%

P25-2.45% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 0% Score90.6 DownOpp0.643
View chart 開富途