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歷史相似情境下跌排名

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序；僅供研究覆核，非買賣建議。

樣本 n=40 · horizon 3D · 預設篩選（中位＜0） · 中位＜0 · DN＞UP 10% · 已排除強勢上升

短期上升版本

下跌追蹤Lv1
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短期上升版本

窗口日曆

過去 5 個交易日

每日用同一套短期下跌門檻（中位＜0 · DN＞UP · 排除強勢上升），按中位跌幅排序；每欄顯示頭 8 檔。

下跌追蹤Lv1

頭 8 共通 · 中位數 -1% · 下跌比 65% · Dn−Up +11.3 · 共 21 檔（去重）

已參與 — 檔

09-24

8/8
  1. #1 FSLR 中位-2.93% P25-5.80% 下跌比55% Dn/Up35%/20% 開富途
  2. #2 TSLA 中位-2.23% P25-4.12% 下跌比75% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  3. #3 ADBE 2日 中位-2.01% P25-4.40% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up20%/10% 開富途
  4. #4 PSKY 3日 中位-1.73% P25-5.43% 下跌比70% Dn/Up32.5%/7.5% 開富途
  5. #5 BLDR 2日 中位-1.69% P25-4.30% 下跌比75% Dn/Up25%/5% 開富途
  6. #6 GIS 2日 中位-1.09% P25-3.10% 下跌比72.5% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  7. #7 CME 中位-0.88% P25-2.78% 下跌比65% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  8. #8 CAG 2日 中位-0.71% P25-3.27% 下跌比60% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途

09-25

7/7
  1. #1 APP 中位-2.59% P25-5.54% 下跌比70% Dn/Up30%/20% 開富途
  2. #2 ADBE 2日 中位-2.17% P25-5.01% 下跌比65% Dn/Up30%/10% 開富途
  3. #3 BLDR 2日 中位-1.88% P25-5.33% 下跌比80% Dn/Up27.5%/2.5% 開富途
  4. #4 PSKY 3日 中位-1.23% P25-4.91% 下跌比55% Dn/Up25%/12.5% 開富途
  5. #5 CAG 2日 中位-1.00% P25-3.19% 下跌比70% Dn/Up12.5%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 NKE 中位-0.97% P25-2.85% 下跌比70% Dn/Up12.5%/2.5% 開富途
  7. #7 FOXA 中位-0.64% P25-2.88% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up15%/5% 開富途

09-29

8/8
  1. #1 PSKY 3日 中位-1.83% P25-5.28% 下跌比65% Dn/Up30%/12.5% 開富途
  2. #2 CCL 2日 中位-1.53% P25-3.67% 下跌比70% Dn/Up17.5%/7.5% 開富途
  3. #3 IDXX 中位-1.53% P25-3.21% 下跌比67.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  4. #4 WRB 中位-1.30% P25-2.91% 下跌比62.5% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  5. #5 PEP 2日 中位-0.87% P25-3.17% 下跌比65% Dn/Up10%/0% 開富途
  6. #6 T 中位-0.72% P25-2.63% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up17.5%/5% 開富途
  7. #7 CRWD 中位-0.41% P25-3.83% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up22.5%/12.5% 開富途
  8. #8 SNPS 中位-0.13% P25-3.70% 下跌比50% Dn/Up20%/2.5% 開富途

Top opportunities

Top 5 下跌速覽

  1. #1 US.PEP P25-3.34% 下跌比70% Dn/Up15% / 0% 中位-1.55% 開富途
  2. #2 US.RCL P25-2.76% 下跌比60% Dn/Up15% / 5% 中位-0.96% 開富途
  3. #3 US.CCL P25-2.72% 下跌比55% Dn/Up15% / 2.5% 中位-0.47% 開富途
  4. #4 US.BLK P25-3.70% 下跌比57.5% Dn/Up15% / 2.5% 中位-0.42% 開富途
  5. #5 US.Q P25-3.02% 下跌比52.5% Dn/Up17.5% / 7.5% 中位-0.27% 開富途

跌幅領先榜

Ranking notes

按歷史相似情境的中位跌幅排序，其後才看 P25 與 Dn−Up；不是按機會分數。

預設要求中位回報嚴格小於 0。

Default filter active: DN＞UP 10% (Down5 − Up5 ≥ 10pp).

來自 sp500_score_projections 的已物化投影列，按中位跌幅、然後 P25、然後 Dn−Up 排序。

以下排名來自已存檔歷史統計，不是交易建議；請自行判斷並留意樣本數、篩選狀態與 gross/net 假設。

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.PEP PepsiCo · Consumer Staples

-1.55%

P25-3.34% Down70% Dn/Up515% / 0% Score50.7 DownOpp3.605
View chart 開富途
#2 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.96%

P25-2.76% Down60% Dn/Up515% / 5% Score85.1 DownOpp1.512
View chart 開富途
#3 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-0.47%

P25-2.72% Down55% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score85.4 DownOpp0.759
View chart 開富途
#4 US.BLK BlackRock · Financials

-0.42%

P25-3.70% Down57.5% Dn/Up515% / 2.5% Score58.9 DownOpp1.353
View chart 開富途
#5 US.Q Qnity Electronics · Information Technology

-0.27%

P25-3.02% Down52.5% Dn/Up517.5% / 7.5% Score65.4 DownOpp0.284
View chart 開富途