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Downside opportunities

Rank projected downside with the best DOE setting.

Materialized projections ranked by downside median, downside probability, and score quality.

Calibration status

3D · n=80

Shared DOE best setting from the as-of run for this snapshot.

Point-in-time safe

Snapshot 2026-09-16
DOE calibrated as-of 2026-09-16
DOE window 2026-07-09 → 2026-09-11
DOE anchors 120
Computed at 2026年9月17日 上午7:45 HKT
Rows 49
Excluded uptrends 344

Downside ranking

US.DHI · -1.33% median

Ranked by downside opportunity score: lower median return, deeper left tail, downside probability, and score quality.

Top median-1.33%
Top down rate68.8%
Top P25-2.51%
DOE score2.334

Projected downside + down-rate ranking

Materialized projection rows from sp500_score_projections, ranked by downside median, downside rate, and score quality.

Strong uptrends are excluded by default: 200D MA trending up, above long MA without a meaningful pullback, or 120D advance above long MA.

#1 US.DHI D. R. Horton · Consumer Discretionary

-1.33%

P25-2.51% Down68.8% Dn/Up55% / 0% Score49.6 DownOpp3.09
View chart 開富途
#2 US.CCL Carnival Corporation · Consumer Discretionary

-1.58%

P25-2.49% Down67.5% Dn/Up53.8% / 2.5% Score52.3 DownOpp3.06
View chart 開富途
#3 US.NVR NVR, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-1.24%

P25-2.50% Down67.5% Dn/Up51.3% / 1.3% Score49.5 DownOpp2.816
View chart 開富途
#4 US.LEN Lennar · Consumer Discretionary

-1.14%

P25-2.54% Down67.5% Dn/Up56.3% / 2.5% Score50.5 DownOpp2.646
View chart 開富途
#5 US.FICO Fair Isaac · Information Technology

-1.97%

P25-4.44% Down61.3% Dn/Up521.3% / 18.8% Score46.8 DownOpp2.505
View chart 開富途
#6 US.WYNN Wynn Resorts · Consumer Discretionary

-1.14%

P25-2.51% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 2.5% Score49.6 DownOpp2.246
View chart 開富途
#7 US.PG Procter & Gamble · Consumer Staples

-1.22%

P25-2.90% Down61.3% Dn/Up55% / 3.8% Score66 DownOpp2.126
View chart 開富途
#8 US.SNPS Synopsys · Information Technology

-1.38%

P25-5.05% Down60% Dn/Up527.5% / 20% Score42.6 DownOpp1.923
View chart 開富途
#9 US.ORLY O’Reilly Automotive · Consumer Discretionary

-0.86%

P25-2.14% Down61.3% Dn/Up53.8% / 2.5% Score48.1 DownOpp1.788
View chart 開富途
#10 US.EFX Equifax · Industrials

-0.92%

P25-2.98% Down58.8% Dn/Up510% / 5% Score38.4 DownOpp1.781
View chart 開富途
#11 US.RCL Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Discretionary

-0.77%

P25-2.20% Down62.5% Dn/Up55% / 6.3% Score58.3 DownOpp1.505
View chart 開富途
#12 US.CBRE CBRE Group · Real Estate

-0.58%

P25-1.84% Down61.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score53.7 DownOpp1.391
View chart 開富途
#13 US.CMS CMS Energy · Utilities

-0.36%

P25-1.26% Down62.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score47 DownOpp1.323
View chart 開富途
#14 US.SHW Sherwin-Williams · Materials

-0.93%

P25-2.60% Down60% Dn/Up53.8% / 12.5% Score53.6 DownOpp1.228
View chart 開富途
#15 US.NKE Nike, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary

-0.81%

P25-2.46% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 7.5% Score47.2 DownOpp1.221
View chart 開富途
#16 US.SRE Sempra · Utilities

-0.36%

P25-1.15% Down61.3% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score46.9 DownOpp1.2
View chart 開富途
#17 US.UHS Universal Health Services · Health Care

-0.82%

P25-1.83% Down61.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 7.5% Score88 DownOpp1.072
View chart 開富途
#18 US.HCA HCA Healthcare · Health Care

-0.76%

P25-2.75% Down56.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 6.3% Score72.2 DownOpp1.032
View chart 開富途
#19 US.VMC Vulcan Materials Company · Materials

-0.80%

P25-2.60% Down60% Dn/Up52.5% / 16.3% Score52.8 DownOpp0.876
View chart 開富途
#20 US.MCD McDonald's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.45%

P25-2.37% Down56.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 5% Score50.9 DownOpp0.865
View chart 開富途
#21 US.SO Southern Company · Utilities

-0.24%

P25-1.51% Down57.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score49.2 DownOpp0.848
View chart 開富途
#22 US.J Jacobs Solutions · Industrials

-0.65%

P25-2.52% Down53.8% Dn/Up58.8% / 6.3% Score52.5 DownOpp0.812
View chart 開富途
#23 US.DECK Deckers Brands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-2.64% Down55% Dn/Up56.3% / 11.3% Score43.6 DownOpp0.775
View chart 開富途
#24 US.LDOS Leidos · Industrials

-0.54%

P25-3.34% Down57.5% Dn/Up518.8% / 13.8% Score53.8 DownOpp0.744
View chart 開富途
#25 US.KR Kroger · Consumer Staples

-0.45%

P25-2.72% Down56.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 5% Score79.1 DownOpp0.741
View chart 開富途
#26 US.VST Vistra Corp. · Utilities

-0.29%

P25-1.36% Down55% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score50 DownOpp0.655
View chart 開富途
#27 US.NOC Northrop Grumman · Industrials

-0.34%

P25-2.42% Down56.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 6.3% Score56 DownOpp0.651
View chart 開富途
#28 US.BLDR Builders FirstSource · Industrials

-0.56%

P25-2.40% Down56.3% Dn/Up57.5% / 11.3% Score45.2 DownOpp0.647
View chart 開富途
#29 US.LII Lennox International · Industrials

-0.39%

P25-2.10% Down55% Dn/Up53.8% / 5% Score51 DownOpp0.633
View chart 開富途
#30 US.DPZ Domino's · Consumer Discretionary

-0.72%

P25-2.99% Down56.3% Dn/Up58.8% / 17.5% Score41.1 DownOpp0.613
View chart 開富途
#31 US.FDXF FedEx Freight · Industrials

-0.55%

P25-2.97% Down57.5% Dn/Up513.8% / 15% Score50.6 DownOpp0.613
View chart 開富途
#32 US.MRSH Marsh McLennan · Financials

-0.13%

P25-1.85% Down56.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 2.5% Score45.8 DownOpp0.603
View chart 開富途
#33 US.XEL Xcel Energy · Utilities

-0.20%

P25-1.22% Down55% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score51.5 DownOpp0.519
View chart 開富途
#34 US.LHX L3Harris · Industrials

-0.45%

P25-1.81% Down56.3% Dn/Up50% / 8.8% Score51.4 DownOpp0.493
View chart 開富途
#35 US.CVNA Carvana · Consumer Discretionary

-0.66%

P25-2.62% Down55% Dn/Up58.8% / 15% Score44.3 DownOpp0.483
View chart 開富途
#36 US.UBER Uber · Industrials

-0.43%

P25-2.02% Down57.5% Dn/Up55% / 12.5% Score45.5 DownOpp0.444
View chart 開富途
#37 US.AZO AutoZone · Consumer Discretionary

-0.26%

P25-2.05% Down53.8% Dn/Up51.3% / 6.3% Score47.6 DownOpp0.341
View chart 開富途
#38 US.NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Discretionary

-0.66%

P25-2.35% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 15% Score43.6 DownOpp0.324
View chart 開富途
#39 US.BR Broadridge Financial Solutions · Industrials

-0.23%

P25-2.06% Down51.3% Dn/Up56.3% / 2.5% Score50.4 DownOpp0.321
View chart 開富途
#40 US.LVS Las Vegas Sands · Consumer Discretionary

-0.34%

P25-1.82% Down52.5% Dn/Up55% / 6.3% Score45.2 DownOpp0.278
View chart 開富途
#41 US.PNR Pentair · Industrials

-0.33%

P25-1.97% Down55% Dn/Up51.3% / 10% Score46.1 DownOpp0.277
View chart 開富途
#42 US.Q Qnity Electronics · Information Technology

-0.42%

P25-4.72% Down51.3% Dn/Up522.5% / 18.8% Score41.6 DownOpp0.264
View chart 開富途
#43 US.ATO Atmos Energy · Utilities

-0.11%

P25-1.14% Down52.5% Dn/Up50% / 0% Score51.1 DownOpp0.212
View chart 開富途
#44 US.NFLX Netflix · Communication Services

-0.17%

P25-2.09% Down53.8% Dn/Up56.3% / 7.5% Score52.7 DownOpp0.151
View chart 開富途
#45 US.PGR Progressive Corporation · Financials

-0.38%

P25-1.69% Down55% Dn/Up510% / 10% Score61.3 DownOpp0.143
View chart 開富途
#46 US.CRH CRH plc · Materials

-0.31%

P25-1.88% Down53.8% Dn/Up51.3% / 10% Score45.4 DownOpp0.143
View chart 開富途
#47 US.HD Home Depot (The) · Consumer Discretionary

-0.21%

P25-2.37% Down52.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 8.8% Score46.1 DownOpp0.129
View chart 開富途
#48 US.AMT American Tower · Real Estate

-0.11%

P25-1.38% Down51.3% Dn/Up52.5% / 0% Score62 DownOpp0.094
View chart 開富途
#49 US.KKR KKR & Co. · Financials

-0.08%

P25-1.72% Down52.5% Dn/Up52.5% / 5% Score45 DownOpp0.073
View chart 開富途